Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Foreign shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has dropped to 59% and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:559:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)</a> premium to the local line has dropped to 7%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has underperformed its peers and the local indices on expectations of lower NIMs and higher NPAs.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> in December and March. Further passive buying will require foreign room to increase above 25% which will first require foreign investor selling.</li>
</ul>


Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 59% and the HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) premium to the local line has dropped to 7%.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has underperformed its peers and the local indices on expectations of lower NIMs and higher NPAs.
There will be passive buying in HDFC Bank in December and March. Further passive buying will require foreign room to increase above 25% which will first require foreign investor selling.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Indian Life Insurance Sector is a play on lucrative Indian demographics, under-penetration of life insurance and retirement savings across cohorts of the population.</li>
<li>The large firms<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25899:1" rel="noopener">SBI Life</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Life</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">LIC IN</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23608:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Pru</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/max-financial-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2233:1" rel="noopener">MAXF IN</a> are ripe for long-term secular growth for decades to come as they dominate the market.
</li>
<li>This "Primer" sets the stage for the company-specific notes to follow. Here we discuss the sector level issues, key metrics and relative valuations. See attached PDF- Free access.
</li>
</ul>



Indian Life Insurance Sector is a play on lucrative Indian demographics, under-penetration of life insurance and retirement savings across cohorts of the population.
The large firmsSBI Life, HDFC Life , LIC IN , ICICI Pru, MAXF IN are ripe for long-term secular growth for decades to come as they dominate the market.

This "Primer" sets the stage for the company-specific notes to follow. Here we discuss the sector level issues, key metrics and relative valuations. See attached PDF- Free access.



Indian Life Insurance (And Savings) Sector Primer - Long-Term Potential and Strong Operating Margins

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-securities-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26737:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Securities Ltd (ISEC IN)</a> Turbulent Journey: From a disappointing IPO to a challenging delisting attempt.</li>
<li>
Delisting Plan and Shareholder Discontent: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-securities-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26737:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Securities Ltd (ISEC IN)</a>  seeks to become a wholly-owned subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a>, facing resistance from minority shareholders.</li>
<li>
Uncertain Future: The outcome of the delisting hinges on the decisions of institutional shareholders like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance of India (LICI IN)</a>  and the board's actions.</li>
</ul>



ICICI Securities Ltd (ISEC IN) Turbulent Journey: From a disappointing IPO to a challenging delisting attempt.

Delisting Plan and Shareholder Discontent: ICICI Securities Ltd (ISEC IN)  seeks to become a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN), facing resistance from minority shareholders.

Uncertain Future: The outcome of the delisting hinges on the decisions of institutional shareholders like Life Insurance of India (LICI IN)  and the board's actions.


ICICI Securities Delisting: A Deja Vu of Troubles

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


-------------
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Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
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Compliance/Grievance Officer:
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Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
-------------

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)</a> posted a strong Q1FY24, despite an adverse one-off reversible impact. Q1FY24 PAT came in at INR 1319cr vs INR 1191cr QoQ and INR 927cr YoY.  </li>
<li>With the interest rates stabilizing, housing demand has been improving. LICHF's asset quality has been also improving, adjusted for one-off technical glitch related deterioration.  </li>
<li>At around 6x P/E based on our projected FY24E PAT, LICHF is available quite cheap and has potential to more than double from the current levels. </li>
</ul>



LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) posted a strong Q1FY24, despite an adverse one-off reversible impact. Q1FY24 PAT came in at INR 1319cr vs INR 1191cr QoQ and INR 927cr YoY.  
With the interest rates stabilizing, housing demand has been improving. LICHF's asset quality has been also improving, adjusted for one-off technical glitch related deterioration.  
At around 6x P/E based on our projected FY24E PAT, LICHF is available quite cheap and has potential to more than double from the current levels. 


<ul>
<li>NSE Indices has continued to use the current index methodology to come up with the 5 adds/deletes. The proposed methodology seems to be put on ice for reasons unknown.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-transport-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Transport Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:183:1" rel="noopener">ACC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indus-towers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922:1" rel="noopener">Indus Towers</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries</a>.</li>
<li>The adds, deletes, capping and funding changes will result in one-way turnover of 13% and in a one-way trade of INR 20.77bn. The impact on the adds/deletes is big.</li>
</ul>


NSE Indices has continued to use the current index methodology to come up with the 5 adds/deletes. The proposed methodology seems to be put on ice for reasons unknown.

Punjab National Bank, Shriram Transport Finance, Trent, TVS Motor and Zydus Lifesciences will replace ACC, FSN E-Commerce Ventures, HDFC Asset Management, Indus Towers and Page Industries.
The adds, deletes, capping and funding changes will result in one-way turnover of 13% and in a one-way trade of INR 20.77bn. The impact on the adds/deletes is big.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow

India

Life Insurance Corporation of India operates as an insurance company. The Company provides life, pension, health, and micro insurance products and services. Life Insurance serves customers in India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Life Insurance of India (LICI IN)

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium

Foreign investors have sold HDFCB post merger leading to foreign room crossing 20%. The ADR premium has dropped to 7% and could drop further. There...

Brian Freitas

Indian Life Insurance (And Savings) Sector Primer - Long-Term Potential and Strong Operating Margins

Indian Life Insurance companies - SBI Life, HDFC Life , LIC IN , ICICI Pru, MAXF IN - are ripe for long-term secular growth for decades to come as...

Raj S, CA, CFA

ICICI Securities Delisting: A Deja Vu of Troubles

ICICI Securities faces challenges with its delisting attempt as minority shareholders resist. The outcome remains uncertain, depending on...

Nimish Maheshwari

LICHF: On Track for a Record FY24 PAT

LICHF is on track to post a record PAT of INR 4100cr+ in FY24. At the current market cap, it is available at a P/E of around 6x, suggesting that it...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow

There are 5 changes for the NEXT50 Index as the existing methodology is used. Turnover is huge and there will be big impact on a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium

Foreign investors have sold HDFCB post merger leading to foreign room crossing 20%. The ADR premium has dropped to 7% and could drop further. There...

Brian Freitas

Indian Life Insurance (And Savings) Sector Primer - Long-Term Potential and Strong Operating Margins

Indian Life Insurance companies - SBI Life, HDFC Life , LIC IN , ICICI Pru, MAXF IN - are ripe for long-term secular growth for decades to come as...

Raj S, CA, CFA

ICICI Securities Delisting: A Deja Vu of Troubles

​ICICI Securities faces challenges with its delisting attempt as minority shareholders resist. The outcome remains uncertain, depending on...

Nimish Maheshwari

LICHF: On Track for a Record FY24 PAT

LICHF is on track to post a record PAT of INR 4100cr+ in FY24. At the current market cap, it is available at a P/E of around 6x, suggesting that it...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow

There are 5 changes for the NEXT50 Index as the existing methodology is used. Turnover is huge and there will be big impact on a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

ICICI Securities faces challenges with its delisting attempt as minority shareholders resist. The outcome remains uncertain, depending on...