Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LICHF reported PAT growth of 23% YoY in Q3FY25 led by benign credit cost. Credit cost was negative (-44cr) in Q3FY25 vs INR 435cr (0.2%+ of AUM) in Q3FY24.</li>
<li>Stage 1 assets improved to 93.25% of AUM vs 93.09% QoQ. NIM continues to be stable at around 2.7%, similar to last quarter, making the earnings predictable now. </li>
<li>Led by low credit cost, LICHF is on track to achieve FY25 PAT as per our estimate of INR 5400cr+. This implies LICHF is currently trading at below 6x P/E.</li>
</ul>


LICHF reported PAT growth of 23% YoY in Q3FY25 led by benign credit cost. Credit cost was negative (-44cr) in Q3FY25 vs INR 435cr (0.2%+ of AUM) in Q3FY24.
Stage 1 assets improved to 93.25% of AUM vs 93.09% QoQ. NIM continues to be stable at around 2.7%, similar to last quarter, making the earnings predictable now. 
Led by low credit cost, LICHF is on track to achieve FY25 PAT as per our estimate of INR 5400cr+. This implies LICHF is currently trading at below 6x P/E.


LICHF: Benign Credit Cost Led to Strong Q3FY25

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>LICHF’s 3QFY25 PAT grew ~23% YoY to ~INR14.3b (~12% beat).</li><li>NII declined ~5% YoY to ~INR20b (in line).</li><li>Opex was high and grew ~36% YoY to INR3.6b (~11% higher than MOFSLe) and the cost-to-income ratio rose ~2pp YoY to ~17% (PY: ~12% and PQ: ~15%).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

LICHF’s 3QFY25 PAT grew ~23% YoY to ~INR14.3b (~12% beat).NII declined ~5% YoY to ~INR20b (in line).Opex was high and grew ~36% YoY to INR3.6b (~11% higher than MOFSLe) and the cost-to-income ratio rose ~2pp YoY to ~17% (PY: ~12% and PQ: ~15%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

LIC Housing Finance - Disbursements Weak but Asset Quality Continues to Improve

<ul>
<li>Optically speaking LICHF's Q2FY25 results may not look as strong given modest PAT growth of 12% YoY, however, there was substantial improvement in asset quality and credit cost.</li>
<li>Annualized credit cost has stabilized to below 0.2% of AUM for the past couple of quarters, in line with the historical averages.</li>
<li>Last few quarters saw significant variation in earnings due to NIM variation, however, it has now stabilized at around 2.7% vs 3%+ earlier, making the earnings more predictable going forward.</li>
</ul>


Optically speaking LICHF's Q2FY25 results may not look as strong given modest PAT growth of 12% YoY, however, there was substantial improvement in asset quality and credit cost.
Annualized credit cost has stabilized to below 0.2% of AUM for the past couple of quarters, in line with the historical averages.
Last few quarters saw significant variation in earnings due to NIM variation, however, it has now stabilized at around 2.7% vs 3%+ earlier, making the earnings more predictable going forward.


LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Strong Q2 Led by Asset Quality Stabilization

<ul>
<li>LICHF reported weaker than expected NIM due to lower than usual recoveries, however, adjusted for it, NIM was as expected. FY25 NIM is on track as per the 2.7-2.9% guided.</li>
<li>Weak growth of 4% YoY was the biggest negative surprise; however, this is just random quarterly variation rather than any structural slowdown. LICHF is expecting 10%+ YoY growth for FY25. </li>
<li>Asset quality has been improving consistently. Q1FY25 Stage-3 assets declined to 3.30% vs 4.96% YoY and 3.31% QoQ. Stage-2 assets declined to 4.06% vs 5.74% YoY and 4.20% QoQ.</li>
</ul>


LICHF reported weaker than expected NIM due to lower than usual recoveries, however, adjusted for it, NIM was as expected. FY25 NIM is on track as per the 2.7-2.9% guided.
Weak growth of 4% YoY was the biggest negative surprise; however, this is just random quarterly variation rather than any structural slowdown. LICHF is expecting 10%+ YoY growth for FY25. 
Asset quality has been improving consistently. Q1FY25 Stage-3 assets declined to 3.30% vs 4.96% YoY and 3.31% QoQ. Stage-2 assets declined to 4.06% vs 5.74% YoY and 4.20% QoQ.


LICHF: On Track for a Strong FY25, Despite Weaker than Expected Q1

<ul>
<li>LICHF faced some teething issues with technology during past 1Y due to which growth and reported asset quality had been subdued. However, with strong Q4FY24, LICHF is back on track.</li>
<li>LICHF reported strong growth in disbursements. Q4FY24 disbursements were INR 18200cr+, a growth of 20%+ QoQ. NIM came in higher than expected at 3.15%, despite spike in bond yields.</li>
<li>Asset quality improved significantly with Stage 3 assets declining to 3.31% vs 4.26% QoQ and Stage 2 assets declining to 4.20% vs 4.54% QoQ.</li>
</ul>


LICHF faced some teething issues with technology during past 1Y due to which growth and reported asset quality had been subdued. However, with strong Q4FY24, LICHF is back on track.
LICHF reported strong growth in disbursements. Q4FY24 disbursements were INR 18200cr+, a growth of 20%+ QoQ. NIM came in higher than expected at 3.15%, despite spike in bond yields.
Asset quality improved significantly with Stage 3 assets declining to 3.31% vs 4.26% QoQ and Stage 2 assets declining to 4.20% vs 4.54% QoQ.


LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Back on Track | All Set for a Strong FY25

India

LIC Housing Finance Limited provides housing finance services to individuals for purchase, construction, repair and renovation of new or existing flats and houses. The Company also provides finance on existing property for business, personal needs and gives loans to professionals for purchase, construction of clinics, nursing homes, diagnostic centers, and office space throughout India.

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LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)

LICHF: Benign Credit Cost Led to Strong Q3FY25

LICHF is attractively valued at below 6x P/E on a base of FY25E PAT of INR 5400cr+. At current valuation, an investment in LICHF has potential to...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LIC Housing Finance - Disbursements Weak but Asset Quality Continues to Improve

Opex was high and grew ~36% YoY to INR3.6b (~11% higher than MOFSLe) and the cost-to-income ratio rose ~2pp YoY to ~17% (PY: ~12% and PQ: ~15%).

Motilal Oswal

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Strong Q2 Led by Asset Quality Stabilization

LICHF reported a strong Q2FY25. In particular, asset quality has been improving significantly. At the current valuation, an investment in LICHF has...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: On Track for a Strong FY25, Despite Weaker than Expected Q1

LICHF is on track for a strong FY25 despite weaker than expected Q1. At the current valuation, it has potential to more than double over a holding...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Back on Track | All Set for a Strong FY25

LICHF is back on track after some operational challenges over the past 1Y. At the current valuation, an investment in LICHF has potential to more...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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