Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.


India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Dai Ichi Life Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> has seen rebounding net profit at a strong rate of growth for the past four quarters. </li>
<li>ROE has moved from a dismal 3.4% to 11.8% from 2Q23 to 2Q24, where a single US bank impairment should now drop out of the numbers</li>
<li>New business annual premiums are up from JPY97bn to JPY122bn from 2Q23 to 2Q24 with a high solvency ratio of 654% </li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) has seen rebounding net profit at a strong rate of growth for the past four quarters. 
ROE has moved from a dismal 3.4% to 11.8% from 2Q23 to 2Q24, where a single US bank impairment should now drop out of the numbers
New business annual premiums are up from JPY97bn to JPY122bn from 2Q23 to 2Q24 with a high solvency ratio of 654% 


Dai-Ichi Life Holdings - 4 Quarters Strongly Rising Profit, ROE: 3% to 12%, A Profit Upgrade?

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>IRDAI has released an exposure draft proposing a substantial  reduction in surrender charges on Non-Par Guaranteed Life Insurance Products</li>
<li>The move aims to the remove penalizing surrender charges prevalent on Traditional Savings products with guaranteed RoI; this is the latest of moves aimed to improve policyholder protection</li>
<li>All life insurers are negatively impacted  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25899:1" rel="noopener">SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd (SBILIFE IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23608:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance of India (LICI IN)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23608:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
</ul>


IRDAI has released an exposure draft proposing a substantial  reduction in surrender charges on Non-Par Guaranteed Life Insurance Products
The move aims to the remove penalizing surrender charges prevalent on Traditional Savings products with guaranteed RoI; this is the latest of moves aimed to improve policyholder protection
All life insurers are negatively impacted  SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd (SBILIFE IN)HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) 



India Life Insurers: IRDAI Proposes Higher Surrender Values (SBILIFE IN/ HDFCLIFE IN/ IPRU IN/ LICI)

Life Insurance  of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance of India (LICI IN)</a> reported its 1H24 earnings which are a continuation of the poor performance of the largest life insurer in India.</li>
<li>Total sales were down -10% (individual sales – flat y-o-y); VNB margins falling; outlook not positive. Not positive shifts in product mix or distribution trends.</li>
<li>We value LIC at 0.5x FY25e P/EV, implying a -15% downside from the current price, reflecting poor sales growth, loss of market-share and its failure to turn-around the business model.</li>
</ul>



Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) reported its 1H24 earnings which are a continuation of the poor performance of the largest life insurer in India.
Total sales were down -10% (individual sales – flat y-o-y); VNB margins falling; outlook not positive. Not positive shifts in product mix or distribution trends.
We value LIC at 0.5x FY25e P/EV, implying a -15% downside from the current price, reflecting poor sales growth, loss of market-share and its failure to turn-around the business model.


Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) 2Q24 Review: Poor Performance; No Signs of Turnaround. Sell.

SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We make two arguments in this note (A) Why you should invest in the Indian Life Insurance Sector right now; (B) Why you should start with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25899:1" rel="noopener">SBILIFE</a>  over<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener"> HDFCLIFE</a>
</li>
<li>Answers (A) The train has left-the-station on the long runway of double-digit growth in the sector; (B) The sector valuations are very reasonable due to short-term pressures, SBIL especially so.</li>
<li>We compare SBILIFE and HDFCL's valuations, and narrow the focus on to One Crucial Factor showcasing the fundamental strength of these businesses.</li>
</ul>


We make two arguments in this note (A) Why you should invest in the Indian Life Insurance Sector right now; (B) Why you should start with SBILIFE  over HDFCLIFE

Answers (A) The train has left-the-station on the long runway of double-digit growth in the sector; (B) The sector valuations are very reasonable due to short-term pressures, SBIL especially so.
We compare SBILIFE and HDFCL's valuations, and narrow the focus on to One Crucial Factor showcasing the fundamental strength of these businesses.


HDFCL Vs SBIL: The Low Down on the Best Life Insurance Stocks In India Right Now (+SBIL 2Q24 Review)

India

Life Insurance Corporation of India operates as an insurance company. The Company provides life, pension, health, and micro insurance products and services. Life Insurance serves customers in India.

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Life Insurance of India (LICI IN)

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Dai-Ichi Life Holdings - 4 Quarters Strongly Rising Profit, ROE: 3% to 12%, A Profit Upgrade?

Dai-ichi Life Holdings is a sprawling global insurer and asset manager, with Japan, Australia and US as key markets. Profit is improving strongly,...

Daniel Tabbush

India Life Insurers: IRDAI Proposes Higher Surrender Values (SBILIFE IN/ HDFCLIFE IN/ IPRU IN/ LICI)

Indian Life Insurance Regulatory update: Proposed removal of penal surrender charges on traditional guaranteed-return savings products; negatively...

Raj S, CA, CFA