Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The rapid ascending Huawei EV ecosystem is threatening everyone except BYD and Tesla. XPEV is the next in line after NIO;</li>
<li>We do view Xiaomi as offering an alternative to Huawei to present a unified IOT user experience. But now is too early to judge Xiaomi’s success and XPEV’s role;</li>
<li>We cut the TP from US$24.3 to US$18 and maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


The rapid ascending Huawei EV ecosystem is threatening everyone except BYD and Tesla. XPEV is the next in line after NIO;
We do view Xiaomi as offering an alternative to Huawei to present a unified IOT user experience. But now is too early to judge Xiaomi’s success and XPEV’s role;
We cut the TP from US$24.3 to US$18 and maintain BUY.


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$18) Target Price Change]: Does Xiaopeng Need Xiaomi to Survive?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We summarize the Oct 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li><li>In general, new orders per store for most brands have been rising MoM since Apr 2023, which have been consistent with our prior projection that NEV market share in China could rise sequentially for the remainder of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Oct 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.In general, new orders per store for most brands have been rising MoM since Apr 2023, which have been consistent with our prior projection that NEV market share in China could rise sequentially for the remainder of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Improving Leading Indicators Imply Strong 4Q23

<ul><li>We summarize the Oct 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Sep 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Oct retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>Discounts at dealers for most brands continued to widen MoM in Oct 2023.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Oct 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Sep 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Oct retail sales volume data have not been released yet.Discounts at dealers for most brands continued to widen MoM in Oct 2023.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Oct discounts widened after 3Q23 earnings beat

<ul><li>Eleven Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap and Aito reported their Oct 2023 sales volumes on 1 Nov 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the 11 automakers combined rose 54% YoY (ranging from -33% to +302%) and 6% MoM (ranging from -20% to 112%) in Oct.</li><li>Seven out of the 11 automakers posted their all-time high sales volume in Oct.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Eleven Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap and Aito reported their Oct 2023 sales volumes on 1 Nov 2023.Sales volume of the 11 automakers combined rose 54% YoY (ranging from -33% to +302%) and 6% MoM (ranging from -20% to 112%) in Oct.Seven out of the 11 automakers posted their all-time high sales volume in Oct.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – NEV sales push at month-end leads to Oct beat

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a spike higher in fund ownership in 2021, active Asia Ex-Japan funds are beginning to close out positions.</li>
<li>Funds including T.Rowe Price, LO Funds and Nikko AM have closed out exposure this year.</li>
<li>JD.com remains a very well owned stock among institutional investors, at a time when performance is anything but stellar so far this year.</li>
</ul>


After a spike higher in fund ownership in 2021, active Asia Ex-Japan funds are beginning to close out positions.
Funds including T.Rowe Price, LO Funds and Nikko AM have closed out exposure this year.
JD.com remains a very well owned stock among institutional investors, at a time when performance is anything but stellar so far this year.


China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$18) Target Price Change]: Does Xiaopeng Need Xiaomi to Survive?

Huawei's EV ecosystem poses a threat to many, except BYD and Tesla. XPEV follows NIO, while Xiaomi's success and XPEV's role are yet to be...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Auto Sector – Improving Leading Indicators Imply Strong 4Q23

We summarize the Oct 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Oct discounts widened after 3Q23 earnings beat

Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Sep 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Oct retail...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – NEV sales push at month-end leads to Oct beat

Eleven Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap and Aito reported their Oct 2023 sales...

CMB International

JD.Com: Losing Its Appeal?

JD.com remains a very well owned stock among institutional investors, at a time when performance is anything but stellar so far this year.

Steven Holden

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