Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (9863 HK)</a> is looking to raise between US$800m-US$1.03bn by selling 130.82m shares at a price range of HK$48-62/share. Between 30-39% of the shares will be taken by cornerstone investors.</li>
<li>The continued slide in its closest peers could put pressure on the stock post listing, though there could be some passive buying in December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (9863 HK)</a> could be added to the HSCI and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December. Stock Connect could come online in December too.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (9863 HK) is looking to raise between US$800m-US$1.03bn by selling 130.82m shares at a price range of HK$48-62/share. Between 30-39% of the shares will be taken by cornerstone investors.
The continued slide in its closest peers could put pressure on the stock post listing, though there could be some passive buying in December.

Leapmotor (9863 HK) could be added to the HSCI and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Stock Connect could come online in December too.


Leapmotor (9863 HK) IPO - Stock Connect & Index Flows Could Provide Some Support

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a>  is a leading smart EV company in China. The company plans to raise net proceeds of US$904m through its HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In our previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-stuck-in-the-middle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:80837" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: Stuck in the Middle</a> , we concluded that the company will have to compromise on margins to grow its top line.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that Leapmotor’s shares are not even attractive at the lower-end of the IPO price range and the premium vs local peers is hard to justify.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (2007699D HK)  is a leading smart EV company in China. The company plans to raise net proceeds of US$904m through its HKEx IPO.
In our previous insight Leapmotor IPO: Stuck in the Middle , we concluded that the company will have to compromise on margins to grow its top line.
Our valuation analysis suggests that Leapmotor’s shares are not even attractive at the lower-end of the IPO price range and the premium vs local peers is hard to justify.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.0bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.</li>
<li>As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.0bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.


Leapmotor IPO - Peers Recent Down Move Won’t Help

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) wholesale volume surged 37% YoY to 2.13mn units in Aug 2022, 1% higher than our prior projection.</li><li>Similar to Jul 2022, that figure made the best Aug wholesale volume in history and 13% higher than the second-best Aug sales occurred in 2017.</li><li>Retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 18% YoY to 1.89mn units, 2% lower than our prior forecast.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) wholesale volume surged 37% YoY to 2.13mn units in Aug 2022, 1% higher than our prior projection.Similar to Jul 2022, that figure made the best Aug wholesale volume in history and 13% higher than the second-best Aug sales occurred in 2017.Retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 18% YoY to 1.89mn units, 2% lower than our prior forecast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – What we worried earlier is partially priced in now

<ul>
<li>CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>CALB undertakes design, R&amp;D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products.</li>
<li>In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and talk about the company’s expansion plans.</li>
</ul>


CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
CALB undertakes design, R&amp;D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products.
In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and talk about the company’s expansion plans.


CALB Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Top Growth, Bottom Margins, Fastest Expansion Plans

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (2015 HK)

Leapmotor (9863 HK) IPO - Stock Connect & Index Flows Could Provide Some Support

Leapmotor is expected to list on 29 September. Poor peer performance could be a dampener, while passive HSTECH inflows and Southbound Stock Connect...

Brian Freitas

Leapmotor IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Based on our revenue forecasts using expected EV deliveries, we think Leapmotor's IPO is overvalued and is not even attractive at the lower end....

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Leapmotor IPO - Peers Recent Down Move Won’t Help

Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.0bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015. In this note, we run...

Sumeet Singh

China Auto Sector – What we worried earlier is partially priced in now

Similar to Jul 2022, that figure made the best Aug wholesale volume in history and 13% higher than the second-best Aug sales occurred in 2017.

CMB International

CALB Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Top Growth, Bottom Margins, Fastest Expansion Plans

CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and look at the company's expansion plans.

Sumeet Singh

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