HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Takeda’s sales team is fully prepared for the launch of fruquintinib in EU. 2024 full-year overseas sales may once again beat the expectations. High growth is expected from 2024 to 2026.</li>
<li>Peak sales of fruquintinib + savolitinib + surufatinib that recorded in HUTCHMED’s revenue is expected to be over US$750 million.Without considering other revenue, market value would reach about US$4.5 billion.</li>
<li>HUTCHMED’s pipeline lacks blockbuster products and the indications are small. With the rise of PROTAC, small molecule drugs would face challenges, which would test the management's resilience in the future.</li>
</ul>


Takeda’s sales team is fully prepared for the launch of fruquintinib in EU. 2024 full-year overseas sales may once again beat the expectations. High growth is expected from 2024 to 2026.
Peak sales of fruquintinib + savolitinib + surufatinib that recorded in HUTCHMED’s revenue is expected to be over US$750 million.Without considering other revenue, market value would reach about US$4.5 billion.
HUTCHMED’s pipeline lacks blockbuster products and the indications are small. With the rise of PROTAC, small molecule drugs would face challenges, which would test the management's resilience in the future.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

<ul>
<li>One interesting interpretation of the new Akeso-summit cooperation is that it aims to pave the way for potential acquisition of Summit by MNC. The climax of the story hasn’t arrived.</li>
<li>Jacobio is a good target for potential M&amp;A and licensing deals. So, this company has considerable potential returns and also strong safety margin, which is worth taking a gamble on.</li>
<li>There’re concerns that Genscript could face US scrutiny due to alleged ties with Chinese government. Share price rebound may not last considering geopolitical conflicts and CXO industry downturn in 24H1.</li>
</ul>


One interesting interpretation of the new Akeso-summit cooperation is that it aims to pave the way for potential acquisition of Summit by MNC. The climax of the story hasn’t arrived.
Jacobio is a good target for potential M&amp;A and licensing deals. So, this company has considerable potential returns and also strong safety margin, which is worth taking a gamble on.
There’re concerns that Genscript could face US scrutiny due to alleged ties with Chinese government. Share price rebound may not last considering geopolitical conflicts and CXO industry downturn in 24H1.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) - New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript's Trouble

<ul>
<li>Since Imbruvica's sales continued to decline and Calquence hadn’t shown much growth in US since 23Q2, either Zanubrutinib gained more market share or the entire BTK inhibitors market is shrinking. </li>
<li>BeiGene's recent sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment.However, innovative drugs don’t involve supply chain security issues. There’s no need for US to sanction China's biotech.</li>
<li>We are relatively optimistic about BeiGene's 23Q4 sales growth. In our view, BeiGene’s reasonable market value is at least about US$18 billion. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> is undervalued.   </li>
</ul>


Since Imbruvica's sales continued to decline and Calquence hadn’t shown much growth in US since 23Q2, either Zanubrutinib gained more market share or the entire BTK inhibitors market is shrinking. 
BeiGene's recent sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment.However, innovative drugs don’t involve supply chain security issues. There’s no need for US to sanction China's biotech.
We are relatively optimistic about BeiGene's 23Q4 sales growth. In our view, BeiGene’s reasonable market value is at least about US$18 billion. BeiGene (6160 HK) is undervalued.   


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US)</a> has reported mixed 3Q23 result, with revenue missing and EPS beating consensus. For 3Q23, partner Janssen reported Carvykti worldwide revenue of $152M, up 30% QoQ.</li>
<li>Legend entered an exclusive, global license agreement with Novartis, which grants Novartis the rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize LB2102 and other potential CAR-T therapies for upfront payment of $100M.</li>
<li>The company is expanding manufacturing capacity for Carvykti. As of September 30, 2023, Legend has cash balance of $1.4B, which should provide a runway through 2025.  </li>
</ul>



Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) has reported mixed 3Q23 result, with revenue missing and EPS beating consensus. For 3Q23, partner Janssen reported Carvykti worldwide revenue of $152M, up 30% QoQ.
Legend entered an exclusive, global license agreement with Novartis, which grants Novartis the rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize LB2102 and other potential CAR-T therapies for upfront payment of $100M.
The company is expanding manufacturing capacity for Carvykti. As of September 30, 2023, Legend has cash balance of $1.4B, which should provide a runway through 2025.  


Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Mixed 3Q23 Result; Carvykti Is Flying High; New Licensing Agreement

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US)</a> reported six-fold jump in revenue to $73M in 2Q20, driven by strong uptake of the sole commercialized drug, Carvykti, which generated worldwide revenue of $117M.</li>
<li>Label expansion applications have been submitted to the FDA and EMA seeking approval of Carvykti for the earlier treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.</li>
<li>Legend Biotech has 11 pipeline programs covering hematologic malignancies and solid tumors. Recent financing activities have fueled the company’s cash balance to $1.5B, which should provide cash runway through 2025.</li>
</ul>



Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) reported six-fold jump in revenue to $73M in 2Q20, driven by strong uptake of the sole commercialized drug, Carvykti, which generated worldwide revenue of $117M.
Label expansion applications have been submitted to the FDA and EMA seeking approval of Carvykti for the earlier treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.
Legend Biotech has 11 pipeline programs covering hematologic malignancies and solid tumors. Recent financing activities have fueled the company’s cash balance to $1.5B, which should provide cash runway through 2025.


Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Strong Carvykti Sales in Q2; Indication Expansion Is on the Cards

China

Legend Biotech Corporation operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company engages in discovery and development of novel cell therapies for oncology and other indications. Legend Biotech serves customers in the State of New Jersey.

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Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US)

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

HUTCHMED’s 2024 full-year sales may once again exceed expectations. It's time to recalculate the peak sales of pipeline and the Company’s outlook....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) - New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript's Trouble

The new Akeso-Summit deal may pave the way for MNC to acquire Summit.Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A/license deal.Genscript faces US...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

BeiGene's sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment. But there’s no need for US to sanction China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Mixed 3Q23 Result; Carvykti Is Flying High; New Licensing Agreement

Legend Biotech's Q3 revenue missed but EPS beat consensus. Carvykti worldwide revenue increased 30% QoQ. Outlicensing agreement with Novartis will...

Tina Banerjee

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Strong Carvykti Sales in Q2; Indication Expansion Is on the Cards

Legend Biotech saw ~6x increase in 2Q23 revenue thanks to the continuous uptake of Carvykti. Carvykti has near-term label expansion potential as...

Tina Banerjee

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Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

HUTCHMED’s 2024 full-year sales may once again exceed expectations. It's time to recalculate the peak sales of pipeline and the Company’s outlook....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) - New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript's Trouble

​The new Akeso-Summit deal may pave the way for MNC to acquire Summit.Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A/license deal.Genscript faces US...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

BeiGene's sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment. But there’s no need for US to sanction China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Mixed 3Q23 Result; Carvykti Is Flying High; New Licensing Agreement

​Legend Biotech's Q3 revenue missed but EPS beat consensus. Carvykti worldwide revenue increased 30% QoQ. Outlicensing agreement with Novartis will...

Tina Banerjee

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Strong Carvykti Sales in Q2; Indication Expansion Is on the Cards

​Legend Biotech saw ~6x increase in 2Q23 revenue thanks to the continuous uptake of Carvykti. Carvykti has near-term label expansion potential as...

Tina Banerjee

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

The new Akeso-Summit deal may pave the way for MNC to acquire Summit.Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A/license deal.Genscript faces US...

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

Legend Biotech's Q3 revenue missed but EPS beat consensus. Carvykti worldwide revenue increased 30% QoQ. Outlicensing agreement with Novartis will...

Legend Biotech saw ~6x increase in 2Q23 revenue thanks to the continuous uptake of Carvykti. Carvykti has near-term label expansion potential as...