Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>For this channel insight, we speak to industry veterans in IT Services and Real Estate with an objective to understand the changing dynamics in the Industry. Our interactions suggest challenging times ahead for IT Services and multiple sectoral dynamics at play in residential real estate.</p>
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<h3>About India Channel Insight </h3>
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<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha.</p>
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For this channel insight, we speak to industry veterans in IT Services and Real Estate with an objective to understand the changing dynamics in the Industry. Our interactions suggest challenging times ahead for IT Services and multiple sectoral dynamics at play in residential real estate.


About India Channel Insight 



Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha.


India Channel Insight | IT Services, Real Estate

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

L&T Technology Services Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>LTTS reported a 4.3% QoQ CC growth in 1QFY22, above our estimate of 2.8%. Industrial Products/Transportation (+7.8%/+4.3% QoQ) spearheaded this growth. EBIT margin improved by 70bp QoQ, despite a wage hike during...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

LTTS reported a 4.3% QoQ CC growth in 1QFY22, above our estimate of 2.8%. Industrial Products/Transportation (+7.8%/+4.3% QoQ) spearheaded this growth. EBIT margin improved by 70bp QoQ, despite a wage hike during...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Remain positive on improving demand outlook

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

<p><strong>Infosys</strong>: We maintain BUY on Infosys (INFY), following the decade best Q1 growth and a strong growth outlook. Revenue growth guidance for FY22E was increased to 14-16% CC (12-14% earlier) and the EBIT margin band was maintained at 22-24% (despite the near-term supply crunch). INFY’s growth trajectory remains strong, supported by (1) a strong deal pipeline (higher QoQ), release in pent-up demand to restart the delayed projects, and sustainable improvement in large deals (USD 9.8bn TTM new large deal wins); (2) momentum across verticals – BFSI (nine large deals in Q1 vs six in Q4), retail, manufacturing, life-science and utilities, notwithstanding the lower net-new bookings; (3) structural operational pivots of offshoring and utilisation mitigating the near-term impact from higher sub-contracting; (4) uptick in fresher onboarding (35k in FY22 vs. 25k planned earlier and 21k in FY21) towards demand fulfilment and offsetting the near-term attrition surge. We remain positive on INFY (top pick in tier-1 IT) with &gt;13% EPS CAGR and &gt;40% RoIC valuing the company at INR 1,730, based on 28x Jun-23E EPS.</p>
<p><strong>L&amp;T Technology Services</strong>: We maintain REDUCE on L&amp;T Technology Services (LTTS), despite a slightly better Q1 revenue performance. Revenue guidance has been increased to 15-17% growth for FY22 (13-15% earlier), which implies a decelerated trajectory of 2-3% CQGR (as compared to 4.2% QoQ delivered in Q1FY22), despite a base benefit (FY21 at -6%). Two wins with TCV &gt;USD 25mn (similar to Q4) will support growth in the transportation vertical. LTTS' historical volatility in the large accounts bucket (&gt;USD 20mn accounts) and volatility due to variability in segmental operating profile are reflected in the growth guidance of ~800bps below its strongest year.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Infosys: We maintain BUY on Infosys (INFY), following the decade best Q1 growth and a strong growth outlook. Revenue growth guidance for FY22E was increased to 14-16% CC (12-14% earlier) and the EBIT margin band was maintained at 22-24% (despite the near-term supply crunch). INFY’s growth trajectory remains strong, supported by (1) a strong deal pipeline (higher QoQ), release in pent-up demand to restart the delayed projects, and sustainable improvement in large deals (USD 9.8bn TTM new large deal wins); (2) momentum across verticals – BFSI (nine large deals in Q1 vs six in Q4), retail, manufacturing, life-science and utilities, notwithstanding the lower net-new bookings; (3) structural operational pivots of offshoring and utilisation mitigating the near-term impact from higher sub-contracting; (4) uptick in fresher onboarding (35k in FY22 vs. 25k planned earlier and 21k in FY21) towards demand fulfilment and offsetting the near-term attrition surge. We remain positive on INFY (top pick in tier-1 IT) with &gt;13% EPS CAGR and &gt;40% RoIC valuing the company at INR 1,730, based on 28x Jun-23E EPS.
L&amp;T Technology Services: We maintain REDUCE on L&amp;T Technology Services (LTTS), despite a slightly better Q1 revenue performance. Revenue guidance has been increased to 15-17% growth for FY22 (13-15% earlier), which implies a decelerated trajectory of 2-3% CQGR (as compared to 4.2% QoQ delivered in Q1FY22), despite a base benefit (FY21 at -6%). Two wins with TCV &gt;USD 25mn (similar to Q4) will support growth in the transportation vertical. LTTS' historical volatility in the large accounts bucket (&gt;USD 20mn accounts) and volatility due to variability in segmental operating profile are reflected in the growth guidance of ~800bps below its strongest year.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily (Technology Services): Infosys, L&T Technology Services

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/birlasoft-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14709:1" rel="noopener">Kpit Technologies (KPIT IN)</a> [KPIT Tech] announced a new employee compensation scheme to drive employee retention and engagement and to offset some of the salary cuts done to cope with the current uncertain COVID times. It shifted its ESOP's exercise price determination from market-driven pricing to fixed pricing at face value (or more as determined by the Nomination &amp; Remuneration Committee [NRC]). This policy change is currently under the voting process and will be valid only if it receives a 3/4th majority approval from the shareholders.</p>
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<p>Below we provide a detailed analysis of the new ESOP policy by comparing it with that of the peer companies and by quantifying its potential impact on future earnings and cash flow. <strong>Historically, institutional investors have not perceived issuance of ESOPs at face value favorably. However, our analysis suggests that in this case, the policy change is pertinent and prudent as well as earnings and cash-flow accretive.</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Insight Flow:</strong></p>
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<li>New vs Old Policy and Comparison to Peers</li>
<li>Rationale for New ESOP Policy</li>
<li>Economic and Accounting Impact of the Change</li>
<li>Voting Process</li>
<li>Conclusion</li>
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Kpit Technologies (KPIT IN) [KPIT Tech] announced a new employee compensation scheme to drive employee retention and engagement and to offset some of the salary cuts done to cope with the current uncertain COVID times. It shifted its ESOP's exercise price determination from market-driven pricing to fixed pricing at face value (or more as determined by the Nomination &amp; Remuneration Committee [NRC]). This policy change is currently under the voting process and will be valid only if it receives a 3/4th majority approval from the shareholders.

Below we provide a detailed analysis of the new ESOP policy by comparing it with that of the peer companies and by quantifying its potential impact on future earnings and cash flow. Historically, institutional investors have not perceived issuance of ESOPs at face value favorably. However, our analysis suggests that in this case, the policy change is pertinent and prudent as well as earnings and cash-flow accretive.

Insight Flow:

New vs Old Policy and Comparison to Peers
Rationale for New ESOP Policy
Economic and Accounting Impact of the Change
Voting Process
Conclusion


KPIT Tech: Analysis and Impact of the New Compensation Scheme

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p>Late Monday evening, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2499" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1">Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN)</a> launched India’s first ever hostile takeover in the tech sector. L&amp;T is seeking to acquire a 20.3-66.3% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7297" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7297:1">Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN)</a> through a three-step transaction. Mindtree's founders/promoters together have a 13.3% stake and staunchly oppose the takeover. L&amp;T’s open offer presents an opportunity for longstanding large shareholders to partially or fully exit their stakes at a reasonable price. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>L&amp;T’s open offer is less enticing for minority shareholders due to the small premium. Minority shareholders hope that a bidding battle will drive up bid premiums. However, we believe that minority shareholders should stick with their holdings as Mindtree’s fundamentals remain solid, but a chance of a material bump to L&amp;T’s open offer is low.</p></div>

Late Monday evening, Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN) launched India’s first ever hostile takeover in the tech sector. L&amp;T is seeking to acquire a 20.3-66.3% stake in Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN) through a three-step transaction. Mindtree's founders/promoters together have a 13.3% stake and staunchly oppose the takeover. L&amp;T’s open offer presents an opportunity for longstanding large shareholders to partially or fully exit their stakes at a reasonable price. L&amp;T’s open offer is less enticing for minority shareholders due to the small premium. Minority shareholders hope that a bidding battle will drive up bid premiums. However, we believe that minority shareholders should stick with their holdings as Mindtree’s fundamentals remain solid, but a chance of a material bump to L&amp;T’s open offer is low.

Mindtree (MTCL IN): L&T’s Hostile Takeover Offer Is an Awkward Opening Gambit

India

L&T Technology Services Limited operates as an engineering services company. The Company offers design and development solutions throughout the entire product development chain for various industries, including industrial products, consumer electronics, medical devices, telecommunications, automotive, aerospace, trucks and off-highway vehicles, and process engineering.

L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN)

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L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN)

India Channel Insight | IT Services, Real Estate

Our interactions suggest challenging times ahead for IT Services and multiple sectoral dynamics at play in residential real estate.

Pranav Bhavsar

Remain positive on improving demand outlook

LTTS reported a 4.3% QoQ CC growth in 1QFY22, above our estimate of 2.8%. Industrial Products/Transportation (+7.8%/+4.3% QoQ) spearheaded this...

Motilal Oswal

HSIE Results Daily (Technology Services): Infosys, L&T Technology Services

We maintain REDUCE on L&T Technology Services (LTTS), despite a slightly better Q1 revenue performance. We maintain BUY on Infosys (INFY),...

HDFC Securities

KPIT Tech: Analysis and Impact of the New Compensation Scheme

Kpit Technologies (KPIT IN) [KPIT Tech] announced a new employee compensation scheme to drive employee retention and engagement and to offset some...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Mindtree (MTCL IN): L&T’s Hostile Takeover Offer Is an Awkward Opening Gambit

Late Monday evening, Larsen & Toubro (LT IN) launched India’s first ever hostile takeover in the tech sector. L&T is seeking to acquire a...

Arun George

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