IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansarada-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30718:1" rel="noopener">Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mma-offshore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:594:1" rel="noopener">Mma Offshore (MRM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagatanien-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8059:1" rel="noopener">Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Asia Cement China (743 HK), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU). 
Lowest spreads: Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP), Mma Offshore (MRM AU), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP).



Merger Arb Mondays (17 Jun) - Fancl, Tatsuta, A8, China TCM, GAPack, CPMC, Malaysia Airports, Bapcor

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Palliser/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.</li>
<li>On the subject of activism, keep an eye on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a>'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.</li>
<li>A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. </li>
</ul>


The Palliser/Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs Oriental Land (4661 JP) except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.
On the subject of activism, keep an eye on China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.
A Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> at a likely 30% premium. </li>
<li>The beauty industry is historically ripe with M&amp;A deals.  It is not hard to see why, as the global beauty sector trades at a hefty valuation multiple. </li>
<li>In this insight, we brainstorm for potential buyers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> and analyze the viability of such. </li>
</ul>


Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) at a likely 30% premium. 
The beauty industry is historically ripe with M&amp;A deals.  It is not hard to see why, as the global beauty sector trades at a hefty valuation multiple. 
In this insight, we brainstorm for potential buyers of Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and analyze the viability of such. 


Shiseido (4911 JP):  Brainstorming For Potential Buyers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY2,690, a 42.7% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The timing looks opportunistic as Fancl's shares are down 20% YTD. The offer period is from 17 June to 29 July.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. </li>
</ul>



Fancl Corp (4921 JP) recommended Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s tender offer of JPY2,690, a 42.7% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The timing looks opportunistic as Fancl's shares are down 20% YTD. The offer period is from 17 June to 29 July.
While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. 


Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Some shareholders have confirmed to be acting in concert at the Court Meeting, but long-term investors may vote against the privatization because they are not satisfied with the Cancellation Price.</li>
<li>The success rate of SciClone’s privatization is lower than that of China TCM and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane</a>. If fails, there's a high probability that the share price will fall back to HK$14/share.</li>
<li>The current share price cannot provide decent returns. Together with exchange rate risk, potential failure risks, etc., there's no need for investors to take risks at this share price level.</li>
</ul>


Some shareholders have confirmed to be acting in concert at the Court Meeting, but long-term investors may vote against the privatization because they are not satisfied with the Cancellation Price.
The success rate of SciClone’s privatization is lower than that of China TCM and L'Occitane. If fails, there's a high probability that the share price will fall back to HK$14/share.
The current share price cannot provide decent returns. Together with exchange rate risk, potential failure risks, etc., there's no need for investors to take risks at this share price level.


Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) Privatization Update - Some "Unstable Factors" During Voting

Hong Kong

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited retails jewelry.  The Company sells rings, necklaces, earrings, pendants, bracelets, and small statues.  Chow Tai Fook Jewellery operates retail stores in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Singapore.

Luk Fook Holdings (International) Limited retails jewellery. The Company engages in the sourcing, designing, wholesaling and retailing of a variety of platinum and gold jewellery, gold ornaments, gem-set jewellery, natural jadeites, gemstones, and other related products. Luk Fook offers its products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau, Singapore, the United States and Canada.

Chow Sang Sang Holdings International Limited manufactures and retails gold and gem-set jewelry products.  The Company also retails watches, wholesales precious metals, invests in real estate, provides securities and commodity brokerage services, and trades in gold bullion.

Pou Sheng International (Holdings) Limited retails and wholesales sportswear, including sports footwear, apparel and accessories.

Dickson Concepts (International) Limited, through its subsidiaries, sells watches and fashion products.  The Company also trades luxury goods, and provides management and technical services.

Symphony Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and trades footwear products.  The Company also invests in properties.

Giordano International Limited, through its subsidiaries, retails and distributes casual apparel and accessories under theGiordano, Giordano Ladies, Giordano Junior, BSX and Concepts One brands.

Sa Sa International Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, retails and wholesales cosmetics. The Company also provides beauty and health club services to members.

Glorious Sun Enterprises Limited, through its subsidiaries, retails and exports casual wear apparel.  The Company also manufactures casual wear products and trades fabric.

Oriental Watch Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, trades watches and invests in properties.

JB Hi-Fi Limited is a music and electronic goods retailer in Australia.  The Company operates stores at sites located in most Australian States.  Products include consumer electronics, car sound systems, music and DVDs.

ABC-MART, INC. plans, develops, wholesales, and retails shoes.  The Company also plans and develops brand name shoes such as VANS and G.T. HAWKINS.  ABC-Mart imports and wholesales shoes, apparel, bags, and sundries as well.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.  a specialty retailer that operates stores and direct-to-consumer operations. Through these channels, the Company sells: casual sportswear apparel, including knit and woven shirts, graphic t-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal care products; and accessories for men, women and kids.

HIKARI TSUSHIN, INC. is a mobile telecommunication service subscription agency. The Company also operates telecommunication services stores, HIT SHOP, which sell cellular telephones, and related goods.  Hikari Tsushin also sells office automation equipment and insurance.

Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer. The Company offers products such as crafts, party, candy, sports, media, and seasonal products. Five Below serves its customers throughout the United States.

The Gap, Inc., is an international specialty retailer operating retail and outlet stores.  The Company sells casual apparel, accessories and personal care products for men, women, and children. The Gap operates stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, and Japan.

Urban Outfitters, Inc. operates retail stores and direct response, including a catalog and Web sites.  The Company's Urban Outfitters and Anthropologie retail concepts sell fashion apparel, accessories, and household and gift merchandise. Urban also designs and markets young women's casual wear which it provides to the Company's retail operations and sells to retailers worldwide.

RH distributes home furnishing products. The Company offers products such as furniture, lighting, textiles, bathware, decor, outdoor, and garden, as well as baby and child products. RH distributes its products through retail stores, catalogs, and websites.

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. retails men's and women's casual apparel, footwear, outerwear, and accessories.  The Company's products include jeans, khakis, T-shirts, and other similar apparel.  American Eagle operates in the United States.

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd. retails automobiles.  The Company imports and retails primarily luxury and mid- to high-end automobile brands.

L'Occitane International S.A. is a global, natural and organic ingredient based cosmetics and well-being products enterprise.  The Company designs, manufactures and markets a wide range of cosmetics and well-being products based on natural and organic ingredients sourced principally from or near Provence.

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L'Occitane (973 HK)

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Jun) - Fancl, Tatsuta, A8, China TCM, GAPack, CPMC, Malaysia Airports, Bapcor

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (127.1%), Hollysys (26.1%), Fancl (17.8%), Asia Cement China (13.4%), Ansarada (11.1%),...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Shiseido (4911 JP): Brainstorming For Potential Buyers

Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) at a likely 30% premium. In this insight, we...

Steve Zhou, CFA

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

The timing is opportunistic. While the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, it is light compared to historical trading ranges. Securing...

Arun George

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) Privatization Update - Some "Unstable Factors" During Voting

Shareholders may vote against privatization due to dissatisfaction with Offer Price, risking a potential plunge if privatization fails.Current...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Jun) - Fancl, Tatsuta, A8, China TCM, GAPack, CPMC, Malaysia Airports, Bapcor

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (127.1%), Hollysys (26.1%), Fancl (17.8%), Asia Cement China (13.4%), Ansarada (11.1%),...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Shiseido (4911 JP): Brainstorming For Potential Buyers

Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) at a likely 30% premium. In this insight, we...

Steve Zhou, CFA

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

The timing is opportunistic. While the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, it is light compared to historical trading ranges. Securing...

Arun George

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) Privatization Update - Some "Unstable Factors" During Voting

​Shareholders may vote against privatization due to dissatisfaction with Offer Price, risking a potential plunge if privatization fails.Current...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shareholders may vote against privatization due to dissatisfaction with Offer Price, risking a potential plunge if privatization fails.Current...