Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>While short-term data has been out of favour as the market envisions a post-vaccine supercycle, our text-mining detects greater relative concern on Korean in the financial media over KRW strength and COVID case counts in recent weeks</li>
<li>Japan, for example, saw similar concerns emerge on surging case counts, but news sentiment has been supported by the recent 40tr JPY stimulus package vs. limited Korean measures</li>
<li>KRW/USD's +10% move is equivalent +2x STDEVs, similar to the magnitude of CNY appreciation in the same period, vs. low single-digit moves in JPY and TWD</li>
<li>Consensus suggests foreign inflows associated with a strong KRW are likely to push the KOSPI higher even if exporter earnings (and exports) are hampered by the currency</li>
<li>While we acknowledge the macro impact of COVID resurgence is merely transitory, a key driver in our recent news attribution is the sharp decline in Korean credit card spending as reported by Shinhan for the second half of November</li>
<li>Less transitory is the KRW, and 801 Korean exporters recent polled by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) suggested the currency is already beyond their pain threshold</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


While short-term data has been out of favour as the market envisions a post-vaccine supercycle, our text-mining detects greater relative concern on Korean in the financial media over KRW strength and COVID case counts in recent weeks
Japan, for example, saw similar concerns emerge on surging case counts, but news sentiment has been supported by the recent 40tr JPY stimulus package vs. limited Korean measures
KRW/USD's +10% move is equivalent +2x STDEVs, similar to the magnitude of CNY appreciation in the same period, vs. low single-digit moves in JPY and TWD
Consensus suggests foreign inflows associated with a strong KRW are likely to push the KOSPI higher even if exporter earnings (and exports) are hampered by the currency
While we acknowledge the macro impact of COVID resurgence is merely transitory, a key driver in our recent news attribution is the sharp decline in Korean credit card spending as reported by Shinhan for the second half of November
Less transitory is the KRW, and 801 Korean exporters recent polled by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) suggested the currency is already beyond their pain threshold
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Text-Mining Detects Potential Pullback in Korea Sentiment on KRW Rally & COVID Surge

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD is moving into more extreme oversold readings as the DXY meets our downside target of 90.50/sub 90 that sets the stage for a USD tactical low at a time when we find the equity rally in Asia frothy and overbought. Pinpointing a USD low is our focus that will front run an equity peak and commence a pullback cycle in Asia.

USD is moving into more extreme oversold readings as the DXY meets our downside target of 90.50/sub 90 that sets the stage for a USD tactical low at a time when we find the equity rally in Asia frothy and overbought. Pinpointing a USD low is our focus that will front run an equity peak and commence a pullback cycle in Asia.

Dollar Asia Oversold with Turn Risk Signals

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between low and high-yielding currencies or between regional blocks let alone between the dozens of currencies still referred to, rightly or wrongly, as “emerging”. Price action in 2019 only partially vindicates this approach.News articles about the November EM currency rally and the long list of factors supporting further outperformance next year have been rife.EM currencies, particularly high-yielders, materially outperformed in the fortnight following the US elections thanks in part to a pick-up in portfolio inflows. The prevailing view was/is that a less conflictual Biden presidency will be a net positive for global trade and commodity prices. EM currencies appreciated further following news on 23rd November that the more affordable Astra Zeneca vaccine was up to 90% effective and Trump’s announcement that he would allow the transition of power to President-elect Biden.However, in the past two weeks a GDP-weighted basket of EM currencies (excluding the Chinese Renminbi) has appreciated only 0.9% versus the Dollar and underperformed a basket of developed market currencies (+1.3%). Moreover, high yielding EM currencies (+1.1%) have only marginally outperformed low-yielding EM currencies (+0.7%). Domestic and regional factors over-and-above “global risk appetite” have arguably contributed to the outperformance of Central European and Latam currencies and the more mixed (read subdued) performance of high-yielding EM and Asian currencies. One explanation is that some of these EM currencies are already pricing in a lot of “good” news.The consensus forecast is seemingly that EM currencies will outperform both the Dollar and developed market currencies going forward. The long list of supporting factors includes i) cheap EM valuations, ii) EM currencies’ yield advantage, iii) the benefits to EM of further Dollar depreciation and iv) a rebound in global economic growth. We sympathise with this view, albeit with some important caveats. One is that more interventionist Asian central banks may stop their currencies from fully joining any EM currency party in 2021. Moreover, we would split the next 13 months into three timelines.

Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between low and high-yielding currencies or between regional blocks let alone between the dozens of currencies still referred to, rightly or wrongly, as “emerging”. Price action in 2019 only partially vindicates this approach.News articles about the November EM currency rally and the long list of factors supporting further outperformance next year have been rife.EM currencies, particularly high-yielders, materially outperformed in the fortnight following the US elections thanks in part to a pick-up in portfolio inflows. The prevailing view was/is that a less conflictual Biden presidency will be a net positive for global trade and commodity prices. EM currencies appreciated further following news on 23rd November that the more affordable Astra Zeneca vaccine was up to 90% effective and Trump’s announcement that he would allow the transition of power to President-elect Biden.However, in the past two weeks a GDP-weighted basket of EM currencies (excluding the Chinese Renminbi) has appreciated only 0.9% versus the Dollar and underperformed a basket of developed market currencies (+1.3%). Moreover, high yielding EM currencies (+1.1%) have only marginally outperformed low-yielding EM currencies (+0.7%). Domestic and regional factors over-and-above “global risk appetite” have arguably contributed to the outperformance of Central European and Latam currencies and the more mixed (read subdued) performance of high-yielding EM and Asian currencies. One explanation is that some of these EM currencies are already pricing in a lot of “good” news.The consensus forecast is seemingly that EM currencies will outperform both the Dollar and developed market currencies going forward. The long list of supporting factors includes i) cheap EM valuations, ii) EM currencies’ yield advantage, iii) the benefits to EM of further Dollar depreciation and iv) a rebound in global economic growth. We sympathise with this view, albeit with some important caveats. One is that more interventionist Asian central banks may stop their currencies from fully joining any EM currency party in 2021. Moreover, we would split the next 13 months into three timelines.

Emerging Market Currencies: Hopes and Realities

Only four currencies have appreciated by more than 4% versus US Dollar since end-July: the high-yielding South African Rand (4.6%) and Mexican Peso (5.8%), the Chinese Renminbi (4.4%) and Korean Won (5.2%).The Renminbi’s steady pace of appreciation will, all other things equal, put further downward pressure on Chinese headline CPI-inflation (1.7% yoy in September) and dent export competitiveness. This has led to growing speculation that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) could take (potent) measures to reverse the Renminbi’s climb. We have greater sympathy with the more benign near-term view that the PBoC is more likely in a first instance to slow the pace of Renminbi appreciation and ultimately arrest the currency’s climb. For starters the more relevant Renminbi Nominal Effective Exchange Rate has only appreciated 4.1% in the past three months, with its current monthly pace of increase (about 1.5%) commensurate with its historical pattern.Moreover, the PBoC is after all facing considerable speculative FX inflows and foreign direct investment into China, attracted by China’s economic outperformance, and a rising merchandise trade surplus spurred by a surge in export growth.Beyond the 3rd November the Renminbi’s path is clouded by the outcome of the (still uncertain?) US Presidential elections but precedent suggests that the PBoC will want to keep its currency on a tight leash.

Only four currencies have appreciated by more than 4% versus US Dollar since end-July: the high-yielding South African Rand (4.6%) and Mexican Peso (5.8%), the Chinese Renminbi (4.4%) and Korean Won (5.2%).The Renminbi’s steady pace of appreciation will, all other things equal, put further downward pressure on Chinese headline CPI-inflation (1.7% yoy in September) and dent export competitiveness. This has led to growing speculation that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) could take (potent) measures to reverse the Renminbi’s climb. We have greater sympathy with the more benign near-term view that the PBoC is more likely in a first instance to slow the pace of Renminbi appreciation and ultimately arrest the currency’s climb. For starters the more relevant Renminbi Nominal Effective Exchange Rate has only appreciated 4.1% in the past three months, with its current monthly pace of increase (about 1.5%) commensurate with its historical pattern.Moreover, the PBoC is after all facing considerable speculative FX inflows and foreign direct investment into China, attracted by China’s economic outperformance, and a rising merchandise trade surplus spurred by a surge in export growth.Beyond the 3rd November the Renminbi’s path is clouded by the outcome of the (still uncertain?) US Presidential elections but precedent suggests that the PBoC will want to keep its currency on a tight leash.

PBoC Likely to Keep Renminbi on Tight Leash

Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant macro, policy and geopolitical developments.In the past month volatility in major developed and emerging market currencies versus the US Dollar has only risen materially in the high-yielding Turkish Lira and Mexican Peso and the low-yielding Polish Zloty, Korean Won and more surprisingly the Taiwan Dollar.However, this is not a case of more confident financial market participants finding their feet, in our view, but rather a reflexion of financial markets unable to see through the smoke and reluctant to pit themselves against their peers going into year-end and/or test monetary authorities’ resolve at time of acute uncertainty. S&amp;P 500 (realized) volatility has edged lower since its early September spike, with markets seemingly undecided whether a Trump or Biden victory will be a net positive for equities.For similar reasons the Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Yen and Swiss Franc have shown little directionality since late-July. Headwinds and tailwinds for these reserve currencies have either tended to cancel each other or simply fade, leaving market participants in two-minds and opting for the path of least regret. Back in November 2019 we correctly predicted that “global FX volatility would rise in coming weeks, with the potential for a volatility spike in mid-December”. We once again think the risk is biased towards FX volatility rising in coming weeks, particularly given the still very uncertain outcome of US elections to be held in just 26 days.We think the risk of higher volatility is most acute if US President Trump once again defies opinion polls to win or if a prolonged period of uncertainty ensues in the event of either candidate contesting the result of a very close election.Moreover, the odds Sterling volatility spiking higher in the next fortnight are high, in our view, whatever the outcome of UK-EU negotiations over a new trade deal which will likely reach a crescendo ahead of the European Council meeting on 15-16 October.

Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant macro, policy and geopolitical developments.In the past month volatility in major developed and emerging market currencies versus the US Dollar has only risen materially in the high-yielding Turkish Lira and Mexican Peso and the low-yielding Polish Zloty, Korean Won and more surprisingly the Taiwan Dollar.However, this is not a case of more confident financial market participants finding their feet, in our view, but rather a reflexion of financial markets unable to see through the smoke and reluctant to pit themselves against their peers going into year-end and/or test monetary authorities’ resolve at time of acute uncertainty. S&amp;P 500 (realized) volatility has edged lower since its early September spike, with markets seemingly undecided whether a Trump or Biden victory will be a net positive for equities.For similar reasons the Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Yen and Swiss Franc have shown little directionality since late-July. Headwinds and tailwinds for these reserve currencies have either tended to cancel each other or simply fade, leaving market participants in two-minds and opting for the path of least regret. Back in November 2019 we correctly predicted that “global FX volatility would rise in coming weeks, with the potential for a volatility spike in mid-December”. We once again think the risk is biased towards FX volatility rising in coming weeks, particularly given the still very uncertain outcome of US elections to be held in just 26 days.We think the risk of higher volatility is most acute if US President Trump once again defies opinion polls to win or if a prolonged period of uncertainty ensues in the event of either candidate contesting the result of a very close election.Moreover, the odds Sterling volatility spiking higher in the next fortnight are high, in our view, whatever the outcome of UK-EU negotiations over a new trade deal which will likely reach a crescendo ahead of the European Council meeting on 15-16 October.

Event Risk and Market Volatility: Partners in Crime

South Korea

The South Korean won is the official currency of The Republic of Korea (South Korea). 

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KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)

TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining Detects Potential Pullback in Korea Sentiment on KRW Rally & COVID Surge

Our text-mining detects a potential pullback in Korea macro sentiment on rapid KRW appreciation and the COVID surge impacting credit card spending,...

Elan Gore

Dollar Asia Oversold with Turn Risk Signals

USD in Asia is moving into extreme oversold readings as the DXY meets our downside target that sets the stage for a USD tactical low to front run...

Thomas Schroeder

Emerging Market Currencies: Hopes and Realities

EM currencies appreciated vs USD and outperformed in fortnight following US elections but since then performance more differentiated. Consensus is...

Olivier Desbarres

PBoC Likely to Keep Renminbi on Tight Leash

Sizeable speculative FX inflows and FDI into China and rising trade surplus have pushed CNY 4.4% higher vs USD since end-july. PBoC now more likely...

Olivier Desbarres

Event Risk and Market Volatility: Partners in Crime

Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of...

Olivier Desbarres

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