Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>South Korea recorded the highest daily cases (1,378) of COVID-19 on 9 July in the past 18 months. Despite enormous efforts to control COVID-19 through massive mask wearing, social distancing measures, and use of smartphone based tracing system, they have not prevented <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/10/seoul-heads-for-lockdown-as-infections-spiral-in-south-korea" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COVID-19</a> cases reaching new highs in South Korea. The chief culprit has been the Delta variant. </p>

South Korea recorded the highest daily cases (1,378) of COVID-19 on 9 July in the past 18 months. Despite enormous efforts to control COVID-19 through massive mask wearing, social distancing measures, and use of smartphone based tracing system, they have not prevented COVID-19 cases reaching new highs in South Korea. The chief culprit has been the Delta variant. 

Highest Daily Cases of COVID-19 in Korea Driven by the Delta Variant - Impact on the Stock Market

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>BOC Aviation | BOCAVI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">(2588 HK)</a> </strong></p>
<p>As a follow-up on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a>'s Smartkarma Original <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-pac-airports-ups-but-mostly-downs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51855" rel="noopener">Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs</a>, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.</p>
<p><strong>BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. </strong>The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.</p>
<p><strong>Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. </strong>At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  </p>
<p><strong>We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021.</strong> By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. </p>
<p><strong>We are buyers at book value.</strong> The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.</p>
<p>Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary</p>

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI (2588 HK) 
As a follow-up on David Blennerhassett's Smartkarma Original Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... <em>see chart below</em>. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.</p>

Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... see chart below. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

<p>It has been reported in the past few days that <a href="https://finance.naver.com/item/news_read.nhn?article_id=0000715983&amp;office_id=366&amp;code=180640&amp;sm=title_entity_id.basic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cho Hyun-Ah</a> sold 12 billion won worth ($1.1 million) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanjin-kal-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19086:1" rel="noopener">Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS)</a> shares in 2021. It appears that one of the reasons why she may have sold these shares was to pay for the inheritance tax of the late Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Yang-Ho. Cho Hyun-Ah needs to pay a total of nearly 60 billion won in inheritance taxes, broken down into 12 billion won payment per year.</p><p>Although Korean Air has been infused with new, fresh capital, it is not all certain whether the company will best use the resources in the best ways possible. In other words, she may be waiting for her brother to make another mistake in managing the company. If one or two years later if enough shareholders decide that Cho Won-Tae and his assigned managers are not acting in the best interest of the shareholders, then his sister Cho Hyun-Ah may be waiting for an another shareholders battle against his brother. </p><p>All in all, from a pair-trade perspective, the short term momentum is on the side of long Hanjin Kal and short Korean Air, which has worked so far since the end of the ban on many Korean stocks starting May 3. Given the huge price disparity between these two stocks in the past year, we think that this could be a nice trade as many investors look to close the gap on the two prices which have diverged greatly in the past year.</p>

It has been reported in the past few days that Cho Hyun-Ah sold 12 billion won worth ($1.1 million) of Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) shares in 2021. It appears that one of the reasons why she may have sold these shares was to pay for the inheritance tax of the late Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Yang-Ho. Cho Hyun-Ah needs to pay a total of nearly 60 billion won in inheritance taxes, broken down into 12 billion won payment per year.Although Korean Air has been infused with new, fresh capital, it is not all certain whether the company will best use the resources in the best ways possible. In other words, she may be waiting for her brother to make another mistake in managing the company. If one or two years later if enough shareholders decide that Cho Won-Tae and his assigned managers are not acting in the best interest of the shareholders, then his sister Cho Hyun-Ah may be waiting for an another shareholders battle against his brother. All in all, from a pair-trade perspective, the short term momentum is on the side of long Hanjin Kal and short Korean Air, which has worked so far since the end of the ban on many Korean stocks starting May 3. Given the huge price disparity between these two stocks in the past year, we think that this could be a nice trade as many investors look to close the gap on the two prices which have diverged greatly in the past year.

Hanjin Kal: Why Is Cho Hyun-Ah Selling A Partial Stake?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>With the short-selling ban in Korea lifted this past Monday, this insight takes a cursory look at those Holdcos moving, and some that may yet have more to move. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Korean stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




With the short-selling ban in Korea lifted this past Monday, this insight takes a cursory look at those Holdcos moving, and some that may yet have more to move. 




Preceding my comments on Korean stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


South Korea

Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. operates air transportation services.  The Company's services include passenger and cargo transportation, aircraft maintenance, and air catering.  Korean Air Lines provides domestic and international airline services.

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Korean Air Lines (003490 KS)

Highest Daily Cases of COVID-19 in Korea Driven by the Delta Variant - Impact on the Stock Market

South Korea recorded the highest daily cases (1,378) of COVID-19 on 9 July in the past 18 months. The chief culprit has been the Delta variant.

Douglas Kim

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

As downstream players continue to hemorrhage cash, over 99% of BOCAVI’s aircraft are still cash-generating. Valuation is undemanding for a high...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

The evidence continues to suggest that value remains leadership and we recommend adding exposure to cyclical value on this minor pullback in the...

Vermilion Research

Hanjin Kal: Why Is Cho Hyun-Ah Selling A Partial Stake?

From a pair-trade perspective, the short term momentum is on the side of long Hanjin Kal and short Korean Air, which has worked so far since the...

Douglas Kim

StubWorld: Shorting Korean Stubs

With the short-selling ban in Korea lifted this past Monday, this insight takes a cursory look at those Holdcos moving, and some that may yet have...

David Blennerhassett

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