Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> Index is currently rising for the 3rd week in a row and approaching the Q2 WEEKLY resistance level, but it's a very weak rally.</li>
<li>Between 329 and 331 there id a good area to go SHORT, the index could fall for 2-3 weeks from here, into early November.</li>
<li>A negative close in October would be =3 months down in a row (CC=-3), November in that case would have good odds for a rebound and close up.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 Index is currently rising for the 3rd week in a row and approaching the Q2 WEEKLY resistance level, but it's a very weak rally.
Between 329 and 331 there id a good area to go SHORT, the index could fall for 2-3 weeks from here, into early November.
A negative close in October would be =3 months down in a row (CC=-3), November in that case would have good odds for a rebound and close up.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Frail WEEKLY Rally Is Ending

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The official announcement from KRX regarding the KOSPI 200 rebalancing rule change is expected to be released shortly after the end of October.</li>
<li>The rule change will take effect beginning with this year's December rebalancing. An official from KRX has communicated that we can confidently regard this as confirmed. </li>
<li>It is essential to be aware that during this December review, there exists a significant potential for generating substantial price fluctuations within a narrow timeframe.</li>
</ul>


The official announcement from KRX regarding the KOSPI 200 rebalancing rule change is expected to be released shortly after the end of October.
The rule change will take effect beginning with this year's December rebalancing. An official from KRX has communicated that we can confidently regard this as confirmed. 
It is essential to be aware that during this December review, there exists a significant potential for generating substantial price fluctuations within a narrow timeframe.


Information Received Through KRX Officials Regarding Changes in the KOSPI 200 Methodology

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.</li>
<li>Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at &lt;=324, the index will have a &gt;75% probability to close the next week up.</li>
<li>Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach &lt;300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.
Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at &lt;=324, the index will have a &gt;75% probability to close the next week up.
Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach &lt;300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.


<ul>
<li>The proposal to increase NPS's annual target investment return rate by 1%p by 2028. A rough mathematical estimate suggests the necessity of an additional investment of nearly ₩60T until 2028.</li>
<li>It augments the overall investment volume in local stocks to ₩200T. This projection implies an annual net purchase of approximately ₩12T from the forthcoming year through 2028.</li>
<li>Consequently, this matter is currently among the most captivating topics in the Korean local market, and efforts are underway to identify the sectors and stocks that stand to benefit.</li>
</ul>


The proposal to increase NPS's annual target investment return rate by 1%p by 2028. A rough mathematical estimate suggests the necessity of an additional investment of nearly ₩60T until 2028.
It augments the overall investment volume in local stocks to ₩200T. This projection implies an annual net purchase of approximately ₩12T from the forthcoming year through 2028.
Consequently, this matter is currently among the most captivating topics in the Korean local market, and efforts are underway to identify the sectors and stocks that stand to benefit.


Korea NPS's Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).</li>
<li>The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).</li>
<li>The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).
The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).
The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

EQD | KOSPI 200 Frail WEEKLY Rally Is Ending

The KOSPI 200 Index is rising for the 3rd week but it's a weak rally. Go SHORT between 329 and 331, hold 2-3 weeks. A negative close in October...

Nico Rosti

Information Received Through KRX Officials Regarding Changes in the KOSPI 200 Methodology

I had a conversation with KRX officials regarding KOSPI 200 screening rule changes, and this post provides the responses I received from them.

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD

The KOSPI 200 Index is down 2 weeks and approaching Q3 support. The index is OVERSOLD. If it closes <=324 this week, the probability of closing up...

Nico Rosti

Korea NPS's Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

This post explores one of the most captivating topics in Korea at this point from a market-wide flow perspective: funds influx into the local stock...

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | KOSPI 200 Frail WEEKLY Rally Is Ending

​The KOSPI 200 Index is rising for the 3rd week but it's a weak rally. Go SHORT between 329 and 331, hold 2-3 weeks. A negative close in October...

Nico Rosti

Information Received Through KRX Officials Regarding Changes in the KOSPI 200 Methodology

I had a conversation with KRX officials regarding KOSPI 200 screening rule changes, and this post provides the responses I received from them.

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD

​The KOSPI 200 Index is down 2 weeks and approaching Q3 support. The index is OVERSOLD. If it closes <=324 this week, the probability of closing up...

Nico Rosti

Korea NPS's Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

This post explores one of the most captivating topics in Korea at this point from a market-wide flow perspective: funds influx into the local stock...

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

​The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

The KOSPI 200 Index is rising for the 3rd week but it's a weak rally. Go SHORT between 329 and 331, hold 2-3 weeks. A negative close in October...

The KOSPI 200 Index is down 2 weeks and approaching Q3 support. The index is OVERSOLD. If it closes <=324 this week, the probability of closing up...

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...