Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

<div>Asia lean was on the short side (STI, HSI, KLSE, SET, Japan and India banks). Short protection called for in Taiwan and Korea for a pullback cycle. USD rally risk will add to pressure now that the USD/KRW has cleared resistance (we are long from 1,080).</div><div></div><div>Long equity and short the USD is a crowded trade and we are poised for a shakeout in the next few weeks. We like selling equities on a bounce attempt and buying the USD on dips into early February but divergences suggest this may start to see a bigger unwind.</div>

Asia lean was on the short side (STI, HSI, KLSE, SET, Japan and India banks). Short protection called for in Taiwan and Korea for a pullback cycle. USD rally risk will add to pressure now that the USD/KRW has cleared resistance (we are long from 1,080).Long equity and short the USD is a crowded trade and we are poised for a shakeout in the next few weeks. We like selling equities on a bounce attempt and buying the USD on dips into early February but divergences suggest this may start to see a bigger unwind.

<p>Our most bullish stance in Asia has been in Japan, Korea and Taiwan (core Asia) and now starting to see rotation into Hong Kong. Tactically, we are seeing rally exhaustion signs as the SPX chisels out a top at the upper rising wedge range. Asia is showing signs of a tactical peak after a good run as Japan struggles at the top end of its own wedge range, Korea testing a secondary top and Taiwan above 16,000 projection. Buy levels on a minor correction are outlined to increase risk bets for a push into late February.</p>

Our most bullish stance in Asia has been in Japan, Korea and Taiwan (core Asia) and now starting to see rotation into Hong Kong. Tactically, we are seeing rally exhaustion signs as the SPX chisels out a top at the upper rising wedge range. Asia is showing signs of a tactical peak after a good run as Japan struggles at the top end of its own wedge range, Korea testing a secondary top and Taiwan above 16,000 projection. Buy levels on a minor correction are outlined to increase risk bets for a push into late February.

<p>As the USD moves into extreme oversold territory we are on the hunt for short hedges in Asia and present positioning on the short side into strength this week. Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been our core long group but nearing secondary resistance levels. Dip support targets outlined to trade a push high and then prepare for a mid to late January risk draw down that sets the stage a drive higher in February/March.</p>

As the USD moves into extreme oversold territory we are on the hunt for short hedges in Asia and present positioning on the short side into strength this week. Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been our core long group but nearing secondary resistance levels. Dip support targets outlined to trade a push high and then prepare for a mid to late January risk draw down that sets the stage a drive higher in February/March.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

<p>It is again the time of majority shareholder transfer tax play.</p><p>Korea has this weird tax system called the majority shareholder transfer tax. If you own a stock for more than ₩1B, you will become subject to this tax regardless of whether you are a controlling stakeholder or not.</p><p>The tax rate varies from 22% to 33%, depending on the size of your capital gains.</p><p>The tax base date is the same as the year-end dividend record date. So, the ex-eligibility date falls on the same date as the ex-dividend, December 29.</p>

It is again the time of majority shareholder transfer tax play.Korea has this weird tax system called the majority shareholder transfer tax. If you own a stock for more than ₩1B, you will become subject to this tax regardless of whether you are a controlling stakeholder or not.The tax rate varies from 22% to 33%, depending on the size of your capital gains.The tax base date is the same as the year-end dividend record date. So, the ex-eligibility date falls on the same date as the ex-dividend, December 29.

Majority Shareholder Transfer Tax Play: Trade KOSDAQ 150 ETF

<p>No concrete saying on Samsung's year-end special dividend yet.</p><p>That means we should still expect an additional ₩6.5T to fill up to meet the 3-yr 50% FCF target, which then translates into a ₩1,304 year-end DPS (ord) based on the current street consensus.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Special &amp; interim div-adjusted div yield"}'>Special &amp; interim div-adjusted div yield</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Common DPS (incl. special div)"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]"><strong>Common DPS (incl. special div)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1304}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩-412]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]-R[-12]C[2]"><strong>₩1,304</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" : Price"}'>: Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":72800}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩-412]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]">₩72,800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" : Dividend yield"}'>: Dividend yield</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.017912087912087912}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]">1.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1P DPS (incl. special div)"}'><strong>1P DPS (incl. special div)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1306}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩-412]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]-R[-15]C[2]"><strong>₩1,306</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" : Price"}'>: Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":68700}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩-412]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]">₩68,700</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" : Dividend yield"}'>: Dividend yield</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.01901018922852984}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]">1.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Difference"}'>Difference</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"0.10%p"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula='=left(((R[-1]C[0]-R[-4]C[0])*100), 4)&amp;"%"&amp;"p"'>0.10%p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - 1P div. yield premium"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>- 1P div. yield premium</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.06130504281976413}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-2]C[0]-R[-5]C[0])/R[-5]C[0]">6.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>It is a 1.8% div yield at the current price (ord). Well, it is not too bad for two weeks of holding.</p><p>Then, the problem is, of course, hedging.</p><p>Samsung's single-stock futures are plenty in circulation, easily over 0.6x spot. But F 202001 is currently in severe backwardation at -1,300~-1,500, which is pretty much in line with the market consensus DPS to cancel each other.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Date"}'>Date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Spot"}'>Spot</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"F 202101"}'>F 202101</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Basis"}'>Basis</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44182}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"m\"/\"d\"/\"yy"]'>12/17/20</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":72800}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>72,800</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":71300}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>71,300</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1500}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-2]"><strong>-1,500</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44181}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"m\"/\"d\"/\"yy"]'>12/16/20</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":73800}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>73,800</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":72500}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>72,500</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1300}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-2]"><strong>-1,300</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44180}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"m\"/\"d\"/\"yy"]'>12/15/20</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":73800}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>73,800</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":72500}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>72,500</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1300}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-2]"><strong>-1,300</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

No concrete saying on Samsung's year-end special dividend yet.That means we should still expect an additional ₩6.5T to fill up to meet the 3-yr 50% FCF target, which then translates into a ₩1,304 year-end DPS (ord) based on the current street consensus.





Special &amp; interim div-adjusted div yield

Common DPS (incl. special div)
₩1,304


: Price
₩72,800


: Dividend yield
1.79%


1P DPS (incl. special div)
₩1,306


: Price
₩68,700


: Dividend yield
1.90%


Difference
0.10%p


- 1P div. yield premium
6.13%

Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide

It is a 1.8% div yield at the current price (ord). Well, it is not too bad for two weeks of holding.Then, the problem is, of course, hedging.Samsung's single-stock futures are plenty in circulation, easily over 0.6x spot. But F 202001 is currently in severe backwardation at -1,300~-1,500, which is pretty much in line with the market consensus DPS to cancel each other.








Date
Spot
F 202101
Basis


12/17/20
72,800
71,300
-1,500


12/16/20
73,800
72,500
-1,300


12/15/20
73,800
72,500
-1,300

Source: KRX



Samsung Dividend Situation Creates a Huge Futures Basis: Trade Approach to Capitalize on It

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

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This insight is about the trade approach using KOSDAQ 150 ETFs to capitalize on the majority shareholder transfer tax dynamic on the ex-dividend date.

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Samsung Dividend Situation Creates a Huge Futures Basis: Trade Approach to Capitalize on It

Samsung's year-end dividend situation creates a huge futures basis. This insight examines how to capitalize on this situation.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)