Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

SPX turned bearish below 3,410 and we used the DJI to short at 27,700 (break below 28k pivot support) given the Dow is underperforming the SPX. NDX below 11,600 is the core risk driver. Lack of stimulus clarity and Covid on the rise weighing on pivot support breaks. Big tech earnings today expected to give NDX a lift (bounce trade up).SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 represent key pivot resistance points for a fresh short phase and the bull/bear line.Asia long levels outlined on weakness.

SPX turned bearish below 3,410 and we used the DJI to short at 27,700 (break below 28k pivot support) given the Dow is underperforming the SPX. NDX below 11,600 is the core risk driver. Lack of stimulus clarity and Covid on the rise weighing on pivot support breaks. Big tech earnings today expected to give NDX a lift (bounce trade up).SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 represent key pivot resistance points for a fresh short phase and the bull/bear line.Asia long levels outlined on weakness.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2020 review of the KOSDAQ150 Index in the second half of November. The constituent changes will be effective from the open on 11 December 2020 and the rebalancing trades will need to be done at the closing auction on 10 December 2020.The review covers the period from 1 May to 31 October. We have gone through 120 trading days and there are only 3 days remaining in the review period. Since the data is averaged, there is a very small possibility of the names changing over the next few days.At the current time, we see 16 potential inclusions and exclusions with a one-way turnover of 6.94%. This includes the fast entry inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games (293490 KS)</a>.The expected inclusions have outperformed the expected deletions since the start of the review period but have given up a significant part of the gains over the last couple of months. With short selling still banned, there could be another period of outperformance prior to the announcement with continuation leading up to implementation date.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2020 review of the KOSDAQ150 Index in the second half of November. The constituent changes will be effective from the open on 11 December 2020 and the rebalancing trades will need to be done at the closing auction on 10 December 2020.The review covers the period from 1 May to 31 October. We have gone through 120 trading days and there are only 3 days remaining in the review period. Since the data is averaged, there is a very small possibility of the names changing over the next few days.At the current time, we see 16 potential inclusions and exclusions with a one-way turnover of 6.94%. This includes the fast entry inclusion of Kakao Games (293490 KS).The expected inclusions have outperformed the expected deletions since the start of the review period but have given up a significant part of the gains over the last couple of months. With short selling still banned, there could be another period of outperformance prior to the announcement with continuation leading up to implementation date.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Reversion Sets Up an Attractive Entry Point

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2020 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in November. The constituent changes will be effective from the open on 11 December 2020 and the rebalancing trades will need to be done at the closing auction on 10 December 2020.At the current time, we see nine stocks being added to and deleted from the index with another three stocks as very close adds and deletes. There could be an additional change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/big-hit-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28959:1" rel="noopener">Big Hit Entertainment (352820 KS)</a> getting index inclusion as a Fast Entry - this change could be announced ahead of the regular review announcement or as a part of the regular announcement, though the implementation will be at the same time as the December review.The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential exclusions by a wide margin over the last 6 months though the performance has been subdued over the last 2 months. With the short sell ban still in force, we could see the potential inclusions continue to outperform the potential exclusions after this period of consolidation, especially once the announcement of the changes has been made.In the Insight, we look at the expected changes, the impact of the changes on the stocks, the performance of the stocks and the short interest, the behaviour of the inclusions/exclusions at the June review and recommend some trades going forward.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2020 review of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) in November. The constituent changes will be effective from the open on 11 December 2020 and the rebalancing trades will need to be done at the closing auction on 10 December 2020.At the current time, we see nine stocks being added to and deleted from the index with another three stocks as very close adds and deletes. There could be an additional change with Big Hit Entertainment (352820 KS) getting index inclusion as a Fast Entry - this change could be announced ahead of the regular review announcement or as a part of the regular announcement, though the implementation will be at the same time as the December review.The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential exclusions by a wide margin over the last 6 months though the performance has been subdued over the last 2 months. With the short sell ban still in force, we could see the potential inclusions continue to outperform the potential exclusions after this period of consolidation, especially once the announcement of the changes has been made.In the Insight, we look at the expected changes, the impact of the changes on the stocks, the performance of the stocks and the short interest, the behaviour of the inclusions/exclusions at the June review and recommend some trades going forward.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Complete, Nine (Or Ten) Possible Changes

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

Base case calls for buying US equities at sub DJI 28k, SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600-500 while allowing for some noise to base and stage a fresh up cycle. Do not want to trade for any length of time below SPX 3,400 to hold longs. Asia long levels on a dip given odds the US ranges into the election barring a stimulus package announcement.Europe remains weak with a bias to short rally attempts as the short pair/long US.In Asia we have liked being long A shares, Australia, H shares and now see potential to work into a long in the Philippines. Top shorts are HSI, STI, KLSE. Taiwan and Korea are transitioning into the bull camp on a pullback to position for a break above key highs with new high projections noted.

Base case calls for buying US equities at sub DJI 28k, SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600-500 while allowing for some noise to base and stage a fresh up cycle. Do not want to trade for any length of time below SPX 3,400 to hold longs. Asia long levels on a dip given odds the US ranges into the election barring a stimulus package announcement.Europe remains weak with a bias to short rally attempts as the short pair/long US.In Asia we have liked being long A shares, Australia, H shares and now see potential to work into a long in the Philippines. Top shorts are HSI, STI, KLSE. Taiwan and Korea are transitioning into the bull camp on a pullback to position for a break above key highs with new high projections noted.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games (1404796D KS)</a> is down almost 9% today due to the expiry of the 1 month lock up on IPO shares. Of the institutional allotment, there were 4.36m shares that were locked in for 1 month and are eligible for sale today. Volume traded so far today has already crossed 4.7m shares.With the review period for changes to the KOSDAQ150 index in the December review ending on 30 October, this is a crucial phase that will determine if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games (1404796D KS)</a> makes the cut for inclusion in the index.Based on current prices, the stock easily makes the case for index inclusion and only a very steep fall over the next 2 weeks would take the stock out of the list of probable inclusions.In this Insight, we look at the Kakao Games IPO, the criteria for inclusion in the KOSDAQ150 Index, and the impact on the stock if it is included in the index.

Kakao Games (1404796D KS) is down almost 9% today due to the expiry of the 1 month lock up on IPO shares. Of the institutional allotment, there were 4.36m shares that were locked in for 1 month and are eligible for sale today. Volume traded so far today has already crossed 4.7m shares.With the review period for changes to the KOSDAQ150 index in the December review ending on 30 October, this is a crucial phase that will determine if Kakao Games (1404796D KS) makes the cut for inclusion in the index.Based on current prices, the stock easily makes the case for index inclusion and only a very steep fall over the next 2 weeks would take the stock out of the list of probable inclusions.In this Insight, we look at the Kakao Games IPO, the criteria for inclusion in the KOSDAQ150 Index, and the impact on the stock if it is included in the index.

Kakao Games - KOSDAQ150 December Inclusion and Lock Up Expiry

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 Breaks

SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 breakdown points will act as resistance on a rally attempt and the bull bear lines for global risk. Tech earnings today...

Thomas Schroeder

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Reversion Sets Up an Attractive Entry Point

With 16 possible changes to the KOSDAQ150 in the Dec review with a one-way turnover of 7%, the recent underperformance of the inclusions vs the...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Complete, Nine (Or Ten) Possible Changes

The KOSPI200 index review will be announced in the next 4 weeks. We see 9 inclusions/ exclusions and significant volume to sell on the deletions....

Brian Freitas

US, China and Asian Bullish Bets

Base case calls for buying US equities at sub DJI 28k, SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600-500 while allowing for some noise to base and working into larger...

Thomas Schroeder

Kakao Games - KOSDAQ150 December Inclusion and Lock Up Expiry

After rising 239% from its IPO price, the stock has dropped 40% from there. Today's 9% drop is due to lock up expiry and a KOSDAQ150 inclusion...

Brian Freitas

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