Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/williams-sonoma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11383:1" rel="noopener">Williams Sonoma (WSM US)</a> is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-airlines-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1" rel="noopener">American Airlines Group (AAL US)</a> is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.

Williams Sonoma (WSM US) is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.

American Airlines Group (AAL US) is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.


S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in March 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 29th February 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the rebalance. We estimate US$13.1bn one-way flow on 3 ADDs and 3 DELs.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in March 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 29th February 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the rebalance. We estimate US$13.1bn one-way flow on 3 ADDs and 3 DELs.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Mar 24: Big Index Flows Possible for Workday and KKR

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/hong-kong-s-hkbn-is-said-to-get-1-billion-buyout-offer-from-hgc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> has received a takeover offer from HGC Global Communications at a valuation of more than US$1 billion (implies around HK$6 per share).</li>
<li>The shares rose 11.6% to HK$5.59 before entering a trading halt. The rumoured price is underwhelming compared to historical multiples and share prices. </li>
<li>HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests that the rumoured takeover premium of around 20% is not going to cut it.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reportedHKBN Ltd (1310 HK) has received a takeover offer from HGC Global Communications at a valuation of more than US$1 billion (implies around HK$6 per share).
The shares rose 11.6% to HK$5.59 before entering a trading halt. The rumoured price is underwhelming compared to historical multiples and share prices. 
HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests that the rumoured takeover premium of around 20% is not going to cut it.


HKBN (1310 HK): Trading Halt, HGC’s Rumoured Takeover Offer

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renewable-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35211:1" rel="noopener">Renewable Japan (9522 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/net-one-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1279:1" rel="noopener">Net One Systems (7518 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avarga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13105:1" rel="noopener">Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-gaia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8339:1" rel="noopener">T Gaia Corp (3738 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishimoto-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44086:1" rel="noopener">Nishimoto (9260 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elematec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2866:1" rel="noopener">Elematec Corp (2715 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK). 

Lowest spreads: Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP), Net One Systems (7518 JP), Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP), T Gaia Corp (3738 JP), Nishimoto (9260 JP), Elematec Corp (2715 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (18 Nov) - Henlius, GAPack, Xingda, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks, Macromill

United States

KKR & Co. Inc. operates as an investment firm. The Company manages investments such as private equity, energy, infrastructure, real estate, credit strategies, and hedge funds. KKR & Co serves clients worldwide.

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KKR & Co (KKR US)

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Mar 24: Big Index Flows Possible for Workday and KKR

A new Quiddity Leaderboard for S&P500 Index Rebal predictions. We like Workday against a basket of peers, based on our expectation of US$6bn+ net...

Travis Lundy

HKBN (1310 HK): Trading Halt, HGC’s Rumoured Takeover Offer

It will be tough to pull off privatisation at the rumoured valuation of more than US$1bn (around HK$6 per share). Nevertheless, the renewed...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Nov) - Henlius, GAPack, Xingda, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks, Macromill

This week, the highest gross spreads are Renewable Japan (80.3%), Henlius (22.1%), Macromill (18.4%), Seven & I (14.8%), Canvest (14.0%), GA Pack...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

​Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Mar 24: Big Index Flows Possible for Workday and KKR

A new Quiddity Leaderboard for S&P500 Index Rebal predictions. We like Workday against a basket of peers, based on our expectation of US$6bn+ net...

Travis Lundy

HKBN (1310 HK): Trading Halt, HGC’s Rumoured Takeover Offer

It will be tough to pull off privatisation at the rumoured valuation of more than US$1bn (around HK$6 per share). Nevertheless, the renewed...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Nov) - Henlius, GAPack, Xingda, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks, Macromill

This week, the highest gross spreads are Renewable Japan (80.3%), Henlius (22.1%), Macromill (18.4%), Seven & I (14.8%), Canvest (14.0%), GA Pack...

Arun George

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...