Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese beer has long been famous for quality and quantity and today its top brands are major exports.</li>
<li>At home, however, the pandemic worsened a long-term decline in beer consumption (as well as wine and sake) as younger consumers switch to stronger drinks.</li>
<li>Unit sales have shrunk but alcohol per unit has soared as sales of highballs and Chuhai boom, forcing change on Japan's biggest beverage businesses like Kirin, Suntory, Sapporo and Asahi.</li>
</ul>


Japanese beer has long been famous for quality and quantity and today its top brands are major exports.
At home, however, the pandemic worsened a long-term decline in beer consumption (as well as wine and sake) as younger consumers switch to stronger drinks.
Unit sales have shrunk but alcohol per unit has soared as sales of highballs and Chuhai boom, forcing change on Japan's biggest beverage businesses like Kirin, Suntory, Sapporo and Asahi.


Less Beer and Sake Please, We're Japanese (But Lots More Highballs Thank You)

<ul>
<li>New regulations due in April are forcing Japan’s logistics industry to evolve rapidly and seek efficiencies to offset a drastic shortage of drivers.</li>
<li>Most firms are aware of the long-term gains that removing inefficiencies in the current system will lead to and should result in improved operating margins.</li>
<li>The government announced new support policies and many consumers say they are willing to accept slower deliveries, which should lower costs for e-commerce.</li>
</ul>


New regulations due in April are forcing Japan’s logistics industry to evolve rapidly and seek efficiencies to offset a drastic shortage of drivers.
Most firms are aware of the long-term gains that removing inefficiencies in the current system will lead to and should result in improved operating margins.
The government announced new support policies and many consumers say they are willing to accept slower deliveries, which should lower costs for e-commerce.


Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".</li>
<li>3D Investment Partners raised its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>,  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.</li>
<li>A firm merger proposal is expected for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.</li>
</ul>


A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the Denso Corp (6902 JP) buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".
3D Investment Partners raised its stake in Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP),  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.
A firm merger proposal is expected for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Two weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a> revealed plans for a secondary offering, aiming to sell 33.48m common shares in international markets.</li>
<li>In this insight, we delve into the fundamentals of the business, identifying an opportunity if the offering is priced at a decent discount compared to Asahi’s current price.</li>
<li>We think recent price hikes and ongoing alcohol tax reforms position Asahi to outperform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> in the next 3-4 years.</li>
</ul>


Two weeks ago, Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) revealed plans for a secondary offering, aiming to sell 33.48m common shares in international markets.
In this insight, we delve into the fundamentals of the business, identifying an opportunity if the offering is priced at a decent discount compared to Asahi’s current price.
We think recent price hikes and ongoing alcohol tax reforms position Asahi to outperform Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) in the next 3-4 years.


Asahi Offering: Discount Presents a Good Entry Point As Price Hikes & Tax Reforms Strengthen Asahi

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a> via an extended secondary follow-on.</li>
<li>We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asahi-group-placement-relatively-small-one-when-compared-to-previous-large-jp-secondary-selldowns" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117700" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Placement - Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates since and look at the performance of some of the past large Japan deals.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) via an extended secondary follow-on.
We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, Asahi Group Placement - Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns.
In this note, we talk about the updates since and look at the performance of some of the past large Japan deals.


Asahi Group Placement - Follow Up - Shaping up for a Christmas Cheer

Japan

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

ITO EN, LTD. produces various types of Japanese tea and canned beverages.

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. produces beer and other beverages including non-alcoholic drinks. The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

Coca Cola Bottlers Japan produces and sells Coca-Cola, other beverages and foods through subsidiaries. The company also operates logistics, auto vending machine, and other businesses.

TAKARA HOLDINGS INC. produces distilled spirits, sake, soft drinks, and cooking wine.  The Company also sells alcoholic beverages under the brand names, Shouchikubai, Takara Can Chuhai, and Takara Shochu.

HOKKAIDO COCA-COLA BOTTLING CO., LTD. produces soft and cold canned drinks in Hokkaido.

YOMEISHU SEIZO CO., LTD. produces medicinal alcoholic drinks under the Yomeishu brand name.  The Company also produces distilled spirits, rice wine, and base alcohol.

Oenon Holdings, Inc. is a producer of rice wine, liquor and seasoning.  The Company produces mainly sake and shochu.

KIKKOMAN CORPORATION produces and markets soy sauce, alcoholic beverages, and other food products.  The Company has marketing rights for Del Monte brand products outside of the United States.  Kikkoman also operates restaurants in Japan and other countries.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces and distributes beer products.  The Company markets its products throughout China and around the world under the Tsingtao Beer brand name.

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited produces a wide range of branded beer and spirits in Thailand.

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

Molson Coors Brewing Company operates as a brewing company. The Company brews and produces beer. Molson Coors Brewing serves customers worldwide.

Coca-Cola Bottling Company Consolidated operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and distributes nonalcoholic beverages such as energy drinks, bottled water, tea, ready-to-drink coffee, enhanced water, juices, and sports drinks.

Coca Cola Bottling Co. Consolidated (COKE US)

Coca-Cola HBC AG is one of the bottlers in the Coca-Cola system, operating plants in Europe, Africa, and Asia. The Company produces, sells, and distributes a wide range of non-alcoholic beverages, including sparkling, juice, water, sport, energy, tea, and coffee.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JSC Ltd. operates as a wine company. The Company produces and distributes wine, liquor, and other related products.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JS (603369 CH)

Molson Coors Canada Inc. is the principal operating unit of Molson Coors Brewing Company's business operations in Canada.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. produces and markets distilled spirits and wine.

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

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Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

Less Beer and Sake Please, We're Japanese (But Lots More Highballs Thank You)

Japanese beer exports thrive while domestic consumption declines due to younger consumers favoring stronger drinks like highballs and Chuhai,...

Michael Causton

Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

Japan's distribution industry is adapting to new regulations due in April, addressing driver shortages and resulting in new efficiencies that will...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asahi Offering: Discount Presents a Good Entry Point As Price Hikes & Tax Reforms Strengthen Asahi

A discount could be a good entry point, as price hikes and ongoing alcohol tax reforms position Asahi in a fundamentally strong position.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asahi Group Placement - Follow Up - Shaping up for a Christmas Cheer

A group of shareholders aims to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) via an extended...

Clarence Chu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Less Beer and Sake Please, We're Japanese (But Lots More Highballs Thank You)

​Japanese beer exports thrive while domestic consumption declines due to younger consumers favoring stronger drinks like highballs and Chuhai,...

Michael Causton

Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

​Japan's distribution industry is adapting to new regulations due in April, addressing driver shortages and resulting in new efficiencies that will...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asahi Offering: Discount Presents a Good Entry Point As Price Hikes & Tax Reforms Strengthen Asahi

A discount could be a good entry point, as price hikes and ongoing alcohol tax reforms position Asahi in a fundamentally strong position.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asahi Group Placement - Follow Up - Shaping up for a Christmas Cheer

A group of shareholders aims to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) via an extended...

Clarence Chu

Japanese beer exports thrive while domestic consumption declines due to younger consumers favoring stronger drinks like highballs and Chuhai,...

Japan's distribution industry is adapting to new regulations due in April, addressing driver shortages and resulting in new efficiencies that will...