Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery</li>
<li>Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. </li>
</ul>


Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range
2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery
Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. 


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q323 DRAM revenues amounted to $13.210 billion, up a robust 19.25% QoQ, but still down 27% from the year-ago period.</li>
<li>In the case of NAND, Q323 revenues amounted to $9.3 billion, up 4% QoQ but down 31.7% YoY.</li>
<li>All memory players remain loss making. We don't anticipate a return to black until Q224.</li>
</ul>


Q323 DRAM revenues amounted to $13.210 billion, up a robust 19.25% QoQ, but still down 27% from the year-ago period.
In the case of NAND, Q323 revenues amounted to $9.3 billion, up 4% QoQ but down 31.7% YoY.
All memory players remain loss making. We don't anticipate a return to black until Q224.


<ul>
<li>SK Hynix reported Q323 revenues of 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still down 17% YoY</li>
<li>Net income was -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement on the losses in the prior quarter.</li>
<li>While DRAM has turned profitable, NAND remains stubbornly loss making and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix reported Q323 revenues of 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still down 17% YoY
Net income was -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement on the losses in the prior quarter.
While DRAM has turned profitable, NAND remains stubbornly loss making and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future


Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>SK hynix reported increased DRAM and NAND flash revenues in the third quarter, with DRAM's price increasing about 10%</li>
<li>NAND inventory is higher than DRAM's so NAND production capacity will not be increased</li>
<li>This bodes well for DRAM makers and poorly for NAND makers like WDC and Kioxia</li>
</ul>


SK hynix reported increased DRAM and NAND flash revenues in the third quarter, with DRAM's price increasing about 10%
NAND inventory is higher than DRAM's so NAND production capacity will not be increased
This bodes well for DRAM makers and poorly for NAND makers like WDC and Kioxia


Silicon Motion Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MaxLinear's acquisition of Silicon Motion has been abandoned, with both sides threatening arbitration. </li>
<li>It is difficult to understand why the acquisition would have resulted in the synergies projected by management.  The businesses are very different.</li>
<li>Assuming the companies go different ways, expect for SiMo to perform as it has in the past.</li>
</ul>


MaxLinear's acquisition of Silicon Motion has been abandoned, with both sides threatening arbitration. 
It is difficult to understand why the acquisition would have resulted in the synergies projected by management.  The businesses are very different.
Assuming the companies go different ways, expect for SiMo to perform as it has in the past.


Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP)

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

Q323 Memory Segment Review, Outlook

Q323 DRAM revenue $13.2 billion, +19.25% QoQ, but -27% YoY. Q323 NAND revenues $9.3 billion, +4% QoQ but -31.7% YoY. All memory players remain loss...

William Keating

SK Hynix. DRAM To The Rescue

SK Hynix rQ323 revenues 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still -17% YoY. Net income -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement QoQ. While DRAM...

William Keating

SK Hynix Call Bad News for WDC

Kioxia announced a second quarter of growth, but that growth is mainly from DRAM. That's good news for DRAM makers (Samsung and Micron) and bad...

Jim Handy

What's Next for SiMo?

MaxLinear has called off its planned acquisition of Silicon Motion. Does this indicate future problems for SiMo? Not necessarily.

Jim Handy

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