Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Murakami to tender stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> rejected (for now) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.</li>
<li>If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.</li>
</ul>


Murakami to tender stake in JSR Corp (4185 JP)? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected (for now) Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.
If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy Rakuten (4755 JP) on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keysight-technologies-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1679:1" rel="noopener">Keysight Technologies In (KEYS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirent-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22160:1" rel="noopener">Spirent Communications (SPT LN)</a> have agreed a recommended 201.5p/share cash acquisition via Scheme of Arrangement, an increase of 26.5p (15.1%) relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viavi-solutions-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15310:1" rel="noopener">Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)</a>'s Offer.</li>
<li>Spirent, with some scarcity value, should be able to improve its cyclicality as part of Keysight. A counteroffer from Viavi looks unlikely unless Silver Lake significantly increases its stake.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.99%. Using Keysight's forecast s about completion, at best, estimated annual return would be 3.51% while at worst, 1.88%. This suggests there may be better opportunities elsewhere.</li>
</ul>



Keysight Technologies In (KEYS US) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN) have agreed a recommended 201.5p/share cash acquisition via Scheme of Arrangement, an increase of 26.5p (15.1%) relative to Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)'s Offer.
Spirent, with some scarcity value, should be able to improve its cyclicality as part of Keysight. A counteroffer from Viavi looks unlikely unless Silver Lake significantly increases its stake.
Gross spread is 1.99%. Using Keysight's forecast s about completion, at best, estimated annual return would be 3.51% while at worst, 1.88%. This suggests there may be better opportunities elsewhere.


Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Down nearly 30% since January 28, the shares are now selling at 17x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-21 and 13x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-24, when management expects 5G-related sales and profits to peak.Premature concern over the next cyclical downturn appears to have been discounted. Delays to 5G roll-outs caused by the pandemic should also be in the price.Over the coming three years, sales should rise by more than 20% and operating profit by more than 30%, driven by 5G and growing economies of scale in the company's other businesses.Buy back in for the long term.

Down nearly 30% since January 28, the shares are now selling at 17x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-21 and 13x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-24, when management expects 5G-related sales and profits to peak.Premature concern over the next cyclical downturn appears to have been discounted. Delays to 5G roll-outs caused by the pandemic should also be in the price.Over the coming three years, sales should rise by more than 20% and operating profit by more than 30%, driven by 5G and growing economies of scale in the company's other businesses.Buy back in for the long term.

Anritsu (6754 JP): 5G Business to Expand Until FY Mar-24

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

United States

Keysight Technologies, Inc. offers electronic measurement services using wireless, modular, and software solutions.

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Keysight Technologies In (KEYS US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

We are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based...

Vermilion Research

Anritsu (6754 JP): 5G Business to Expand Until FY Mar-24

The shares have dropped 30% since the beginning of the year, discounting premature concern over 5G cycle, which should continue until FY Mar-24....

Scott Foster

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain...

Vermilion Research

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Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

​Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

We are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based...

Vermilion Research

Anritsu (6754 JP): 5G Business to Expand Until FY Mar-24

The shares have dropped 30% since the beginning of the year, discounting premature concern over 5G cycle, which should continue until FY Mar-24....

Scott Foster

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain...

Vermilion Research

Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...