Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T debuted with a rich valuation, but little investor enthusiasm to date</li>
<li>Focusing on J&amp;T's valuation alone could be a boon to CaiNiao's valuation...</li>
<li>...but, with few other comps, J&amp;T's lackluster early performance could be a drag</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T debuted with a rich valuation, but little investor enthusiasm to date
Focusing on J&amp;T's valuation alone could be a boon to CaiNiao's valuation...
...but, with few other comps, J&amp;T's lackluster early performance could be a drag


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>KEX's EBIT margin fell to -38% in Q323, but showed Q/Q improvement vs Q223</li>
<li>Q/Q progress on margin most likely due to KEX initiatives, not market recovery</li>
<li>Ongoing weakness in Thai domestic express market marginally negative for J&amp;T </li>
</ul>


KEX's EBIT margin fell to -38% in Q323, but showed Q/Q improvement vs Q223
Q/Q progress on margin most likely due to KEX initiatives, not market recovery
Ongoing weakness in Thai domestic express market marginally negative for J&amp;T 


Q323 Another Tough Quarter for Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) | Negative Read-Through for J&T Global

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115216" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 327m shares at HK$12 per share, which should raise proceeds of around US$501m.</li>
<li>Though profitability of the company’s China business has improved, SEA margins continue to decline, hence our analysis suggests that J&amp;T may not be able to generate profits in the near-term.</li>
<li>Our SOTP valuation offers per share value of HK$9.48 per share which is at a 21% discount to the indicative IPO price suggesting J&amp;T’s IPO is overvalued.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 327m shares at HK$12 per share, which should raise proceeds of around US$501m.
Though profitability of the company’s China business has improved, SEA margins continue to decline, hence our analysis suggests that J&amp;T may not be able to generate profits in the near-term.
Our SOTP valuation offers per share value of HK$9.48 per share which is at a 21% discount to the indicative IPO price suggesting J&amp;T’s IPO is overvalued.


J&T Global Express IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a global logistics service provider, raised around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a global logistics service provider, raised around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Trading - Tepid Demand Despite the Team Effort

Thailand

WICE Logistics Public Company Limited provides freight shipping services. The Company offers marine freight shipping, air freight shipping and trucking services.

Triple i Logistics Public Company Limited provides logistics services. The Company offers sea and air freight forwarding, warehousing, distribution, shipping, goods transportation, and container depot services. Triple i Logistics serves customers worldwide.

NCL International Logistics Company Limited provides data management services logistics including, planning, management, and proposed solutions. The Company divides services between international transportation management services and domestic transportation services.

BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure Fund is a closed-end fund incorporated in Thailand. The Fund's objective is to achieve income. The Fund invests in the Core BTS Sky Train System from BTSC, which includes the Core Sukhumvit Line & the Core Silom Line.

BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth I (BTSGIF TB)

JWD Infologistics PCL is an information technology company. The Company focuses on maximizing the benefits of managing supply chains and fully integrated logistics solutions. JWD Infologistics operates in Southeast Asia

Namyong Terminal PCL is a roll on roll off terminal operator. The Company offers terminal services, car storage areas and warehousing services in Thailand.

Nok Airlines PCL operates as an airline carrier in the aviation industry. The Company provides air transportation services for passengers, baggage, and cargo.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is Thailand's national airline providing air transportation, freight and mail services on domestic and international routes including Asia, Europe, North America, Africa and South West Pacific.  The Company is a state enterprise which is controlled by the government and partly owned by the public.

Krungthai Car Rent and Lease Public Company Limited provides car rental services.

Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Public Company Limited is provider of aviation fuel services including aviation depot and aircraft refueling services at the Bangkok International Airport (Donmuang) and the New Bangkok International Airport at Suvarnabhumi.

Guangdong Yueyun Transportation Co Ltd provides logistics and expressway-related services. The Company offers services including planning, procurement, and logistics management of construction materials, operates expressway service zones, and development of toll collection facilities.

Guangdong Yueyun Transportation (3399 HK)

Tasco Berhad provides logistics services. The Company offers supply, warehousing, and haulage services to airports and automobile manufacturers. The Company also provides land transportation services.

Chuo Warehouse Co., Ltd., based in Kyoto prefecture, is a warehouse operator specializing in storage of synthetic textiles.  The Company handles imported cargo and operates its business in the Tokai and Tokyo areas as well.

Snowman Logistics Limited provides integrated temperature controlled logistics services in India. The company offers warehousing solutions that cover ambient, chilled, frozen, and blast products.

LOGINET JAPAN Co., LTD. is a holding company established jointly by Sapporo Express and Chuo Express.  The Group operates freight trucking transportation services.  Loginet Japan also sells vehicles and office equipment and provides car repair services.

Taiwan Pelican Express Co., Ltd. offers courier delivery services.

Gati Corporation Limited supplies cargo distribution and logistics support services throughout India.   The Group has some 1,300 remote locations through 340 branches.

Tiger Logistics (India) Ltd. operates an international freight forwarding company. The Company offers freight forwarding, custom clearance agents, consulting and transportation services. Tiger Logistics serves large companies and multinational corporations in India and abroad.

KCTC provides inland transportation services, such as container and freight forwarding, bonded warehouses, and stevedoring services.  The Company also provides and manages logistics services.

CTI Logistics Limited provides courier services, freight forwarding, parcel, warehousing, logistic and customs broking services.  The Company also designs, produces and installs security systems in Western Australia along with plastic services such as manufacturing plumbing fittings.

Kerry Express Thailand is a parcel delivery provider in Thailand

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Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation

For better or worse, we believe investors will view J&T Global Express' recent IPO as the primary reference point for CaiNiao's planned IPO in Hong...

Tracking Traffic

Q323 Another Tough Quarter for Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) | Negative Read-Through for J&T Global

Q323 was another quarter of Y/Y declines in revenue and margins for KEX, though profitability actually improved versus Q2. The read-through for...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

J&T's shares will commence trading at the HKEx on Friday, 27th October and the company's HK offering and international offering were only...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

J&T Global Express IPO Trading - Tepid Demand Despite the Team Effort

J&T Global Express (1519 HK), a global logistics service provider, raised around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

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