China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Even though we are long-term optimistic on the rise of Chinese consumer brands, we believe short-term optimism is misplaced. </li>
<li>Two themes: (1) structural changes led by China’s transition to an older and more affluent society, (2) substitution and globalization that can break the ceiling for valuation;</li>
<li>Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour, Luckin, FUTU, BEKE and Miniso</li>
</ul>


Even though we are long-term optimistic on the rise of Chinese consumer brands, we believe short-term optimism is misplaced. 
Two themes: (1) structural changes led by China’s transition to an older and more affluent society, (2) substitution and globalization that can break the ceiling for valuation;
Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour, Luckin, FUTU, BEKE and Miniso


[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BEKE’s strong 1Q23 guidance and YTD data proved our higher-than-market sales forecast published in January.</li><li>We expect the sales growth to further improve in 2Q and beyond based on our leading indicator, channel check and low base (2023E EHT at +20% YoY).</li><li>Together with the amplification effect via its ACN network, we expect 23/24E adjusted net profits to achieve RMB6.2/7.7bn, 17/13% higher than consensus now. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BEKE’s strong 1Q23 guidance and YTD data proved our higher-than-market sales forecast published in January.We expect the sales growth to further improve in 2Q and beyond based on our leading indicator, channel check and low base (2023E EHT at +20% YoY).Together with the amplification effect via its ACN network, we expect 23/24E adjusted net profits to achieve RMB6.2/7.7bn, 17/13% higher than consensus now. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) – 2Q23E will be another market surprise

<ul><li>We expect industry-wide Existing Home Transactions (EHT) recovery to be stronger than current market expectation (our forecast: 17% YoY GTV growth) in 2023E.</li><li>We also expect Beike’s network efficiency should amplify the benefits from such recovery, as EHT has higher than group average contribution profit margin (CPM).</li><li>In addition, increase in revenue contribution from high CPM (80%+) services revenue generated by Beike’s established agency cooperation network (ACN) could aid long-term margin expansion. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect industry-wide Existing Home Transactions (EHT) recovery to be stronger than current market expectation (our forecast: 17% YoY GTV growth) in 2023E.We also expect Beike’s network efficiency should amplify the benefits from such recovery, as EHT has higher than group average contribution profit margin (CPM).In addition, increase in revenue contribution from high CPM (80%+) services revenue generated by Beike’s established agency cooperation network (ACN) could aid long-term margin expansion. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) – Existing home sales recovery to be better than anticipated

<ul><li>We expect property + sector to react positively on CSRC’s pilot scheme since it may accelerate home delivery and social housing with the help of private investment.</li><li>Also, despite limited scope, it may leave some space for hot money into new residential projects and M&amp;A deals especially when the sales are recovering now and trust loans are back.</li><li>This is in line with our previous report that the policy will remain supportive.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect property + sector to react positively on CSRC’s pilot scheme since it may accelerate home delivery and social housing with the help of private investment.Also, despite limited scope, it may leave some space for hot money into new residential projects and M&amp;A deals especially when the sales are recovering now and trust loans are back.This is in line with our previous report that the policy will remain supportive.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Mildly positive for CSRC’s pilot private investment scheme in real estate

<ul>
<li>3690HK：WeChat is testing delivery platform in Guangzhou and Shenzhen (-)</li>
<li>Gaming Industry: China Game Industry Annual Conference (GIAC) is held（+）</li>
<li>BEKE：Home price decline narrowed in Jan 2023, where first tier turn positive MoM, and new home outpace existing home (+)</li>
</ul>


3690HK：WeChat is testing delivery platform in Guangzhou and Shenzhen (-)
Gaming Industry: China Game Industry Annual Conference (GIAC) is held（+）
BEKE：Home price decline narrowed in Jan 2023, where first tier turn positive MoM, and new home outpace existing home (+)


China TMT Update(Feb.15-16）：Tencent, Meituan, BEKE - WeChat Is Testing Delivery Platform

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

Chinese underconsumption is only half true. It only occurs in categories associated with development stages; Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute