China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng announced May vehicle delivery results (+/-/)</li>
<li>XPEV: Xpeng to begin presale for G6 on June 9 (+)</li>
<li>KE Holding: Monthly housing transactions remain resilient in May (+)</li>
</ul>


LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng announced May vehicle delivery results (+/-/)
XPEV: Xpeng to begin presale for G6 on June 9 (+)
KE Holding: Monthly housing transactions remain resilient in May (+)


China TMT Update June 3 - KE/LI/NIO/XPEV: Xpeng to Begin Presale for G6 on June 9(+)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BEKE (Beike) reported 1Q23 revenue 10.4%/12.2% vs our est./cons. non-GAAP net income 65.6%/60.9% higher than our est./cons.</li>
<li>Although Beike has stated no intention to lower existing home (EH) commission rate, we still expect EH commission rate to slightly trend down in 2023. </li>
<li>We maintain BUY rating and raise the TP by US$1 to US$22 to reflect 1) steady recovery of property sales in China; 2) better outlook on profitability.</li>
</ul>


BEKE (Beike) reported 1Q23 revenue 10.4%/12.2% vs our est./cons. non-GAAP net income 65.6%/60.9% higher than our est./cons.
Although Beike has stated no intention to lower existing home (EH) commission rate, we still expect EH commission rate to slightly trend down in 2023. 
We maintain BUY rating and raise the TP by US$1 to US$22 to reflect 1) steady recovery of property sales in China; 2) better outlook on profitability.


[KE Holdings (BEKE US) Target Price Change]: Operating Leverage Starts to Kick In, Maintain BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BEKE’s reported strong 1Q23 results with adjusted NP doubled from last quarter to reach RMB 3.56bn, strongly beating market expectations.</li><li>Moreover, the Company guided another strong quarter with GTV for ETH/new home to grow &gt;20%/30% YoY.</li><li>Due to improving GTV growth outlook and narrower than expected losses from new business, we raise our forecasts and expect the adjusted NP to reach RMB 7.4/8.5bn in 2023/24E, 17%/6% higher than the consensus. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

BEKE’s reported strong 1Q23 results with adjusted NP doubled from last quarter to reach RMB 3.56bn, strongly beating market expectations.Moreover, the Company guided another strong quarter with GTV for ETH/new home to grow &gt;20%/30% YoY.Due to improving GTV growth outlook and narrower than expected losses from new business, we raise our forecasts and expect the adjusted NP to reach RMB 7.4/8.5bn in 2023/24E, 17%/6% higher than the consensus. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) – Strong 2Q Guidance Points to a Robust 1H23

<ul>
<li>China government guided no commission capping on real estate brokerage business, but the ladder-pricing system may lead to moderate commission rate reduction for Beike.</li>
<li>We estimate that 0.1% of Lianjia commission rate cut can imply to 1.2% of revenue reduction for Beike in 2023. </li>
<li>Therefore, we lowered revenue by (2.8%) and net income by (5.3%) to factor in the potential changes.  We maintain BUY rating but cut the TP by US$2 to US$21.  </li>
</ul>


China government guided no commission capping on real estate brokerage business, but the ladder-pricing system may lead to moderate commission rate reduction for Beike.
We estimate that 0.1% of Lianjia commission rate cut can imply to 1.2% of revenue reduction for Beike in 2023. 
Therefore, we lowered revenue by (2.8%) and net income by (5.3%) to factor in the potential changes.  We maintain BUY rating but cut the TP by US$2 to US$21.  


[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US) Target Price Change]: Government Clears the Commission Uncertainties

<ul>
<li>PDD: Douyin launches “Super Cheap Little Shop” to provide low cost products (-)</li>
<li>ByteDance/BEKE: ByteDance give up offline housing brokerage business, while online business remains（+）</li>
<li>NIO: NIO to officially launch all-new ES6 on May 24 (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD: Douyin launches “Super Cheap Little Shop” to provide low cost products (-)
ByteDance/BEKE: ByteDance give up offline housing brokerage business, while online business remains（+）
NIO: NIO to officially launch all-new ES6 on May 24 (+)


China TMT Update (May.6) - Douyin/PDD/ByteDance/BEKE/NIO: Douyin Launches “Super Cheap Little Shop”

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

China TMT Update June 3 - KE/LI/NIO/XPEV: Xpeng to Begin Presale for G6 on June 9(+)

KE Holding: Monthly housing transactions remain resilient in May (+)；LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng announced May vehicle delivery results (+/...

Blue Lotus Research Institute