'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

GAMING PAYABLES - As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting treatment of payables that can be used to 'flatter' balance sheets that are often overloaded with debt. As @matt_levineobserved yesterday:-<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/193/505/original/2021-03-11_10-33-14.png?1615426510" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="193505"></figure></section>APPLYING THE 'DUMB RULE OF THUMB' TO JAPAN - Accordingly, we have applied a simple screen to our universe of 3,689 Japanse companies with the following criteria:<ol>
<li>Market Cap, ex Treasury Stock,&gt; ¥100 billion (672 companies)</li>
<li> Last Quarter Payable Days &gt; -100 (93 companies)</li>
<li>1-Year change in Average Days Payable &gt; -25 (7 companies)</li>
</ol>We have excluded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a> from the screening due to their consolidation of financial subsidiaries. The results are in the DETAIL section below; however, the TTM Working Capital Day chart for the largest of the seven by market cap is below. It's 'owner' should be no surprise to followers of the Greensill saga.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/193/508/original/2021-03-11_11-04-24.png?1615428279" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="193508"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

GAMING PAYABLES - As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting treatment of payables that can be used to 'flatter' balance sheets that are often overloaded with debt. As @matt_levineobserved yesterday:-APPLYING THE 'DUMB RULE OF THUMB' TO JAPAN - Accordingly, we have applied a simple screen to our universe of 3,689 Japanse companies with the following criteria:
Market Cap, ex Treasury Stock,&gt; ¥100 billion (672 companies)
 Last Quarter Payable Days &gt; -100 (93 companies)
1-Year change in Average Days Payable &gt; -25 (7 companies)
We have excluded Sony (6758 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP), and Japan Post (6178 JP) from the screening due to their consolidation of financial subsidiaries. The results are in the DETAIL section below; however, the TTM Working Capital Day chart for the largest of the seven by market cap is below. It's 'owner' should be no surprise to followers of the Greensill saga.Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Greensill, Gaming Payables & The Seven Samurai of Supply Chain Finance

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

Best World International / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-world-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4600:1" rel="noopener">Best World International (BEST SP)</a> is a Singapore based manufacturer, distributor and a retailor of skincare, personal care and nutritional supplement brands such as Avance, Optrimax, Foodphilo, Margaret Dabbs, DR’s Secret, Miraglo, PentaLab and Bare Feet.
SGX suspended trading of Best World shares in May 2019, following a news article and a short seller report alleging the company of fabricating sales of its China operations. SGX also called for an independent review and it was completed in July last year. The company is currently cooperating with SGX to resolve the issue but the timeline for a possible lifting of the trading suspension remains unclear.
It’s been two years since the initial allegation, yet there are too many unknown variables. At bare minimum, we expect Best World’s robust revenue and OP growth to get hampered over the next few years as the company is forced to do a number of changes to the business model, internal controls and corporate governance measures.

Best World International (BEST SP) is a Singapore based manufacturer, distributor and a retailor of skincare, personal care and nutritional supplement brands such as Avance, Optrimax, Foodphilo, Margaret Dabbs, DR’s Secret, Miraglo, PentaLab and Bare Feet.
SGX suspended trading of Best World shares in May 2019, following a news article and a short seller report alleging the company of fabricating sales of its China operations. SGX also called for an independent review and it was completed in July last year. The company is currently cooperating with SGX to resolve the issue but the timeline for a possible lifting of the trading suspension remains unclear.
It’s been two years since the initial allegation, yet there are too many unknown variables. At bare minimum, we expect Best World’s robust revenue and OP growth to get hampered over the next few years as the company is forced to do a number of changes to the business model, internal controls and corporate governance measures.

Best World International: The End Is Not Yet In Sight

On the back of the optimism over revenue growth from the Chinese cosmetics market, Japanese cosmetics companies with significant exposure to the Chinese cosmetics market (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a>) had a stellar rally and outperformed Topix by 12.2% and 6.3% respectively, since the most recent quarterly earnings.As a result, Kose’s consensus FY+2 EV/OP multiple has reached a new high of 33.4x, compared to the past five-year median of 15.1x.Meanwhile the Kao/Kose price ratio stands at 0.4, which is 12% below the 90-day average ratio and in line with minus two times the standard deviation of the 90-day average ratio, making <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a> a hedge on the long side to a short Kose trade.

On the back of the optimism over revenue growth from the Chinese cosmetics market, Japanese cosmetics companies with significant exposure to the Chinese cosmetics market (Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and Kose Corp (4922 JP)) had a stellar rally and outperformed Topix by 12.2% and 6.3% respectively, since the most recent quarterly earnings.As a result, Kose’s consensus FY+2 EV/OP multiple has reached a new high of 33.4x, compared to the past five-year median of 15.1x.Meanwhile the Kao/Kose price ratio stands at 0.4, which is 12% below the 90-day average ratio and in line with minus two times the standard deviation of the 90-day average ratio, making Kao Corp (4452 JP) a hedge on the long side to a short Kose trade.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> delivered strong 4Q20 results yesterday with revenue and operating profit surpassing consensus estimates by ¥5.1bn and ¥19.5bn respectively.</li>
<li>The company’s revenue declined 6.2% YoY in 4Q20, compared to 17.1%, 34.4% and 16.3% in 1Q20, 2Q20 and 3Q20 respectively.</li>
<li>Shiseido made an operating profit of ¥6.1bn in the seasonally weak 4th quarter compared to the consensus operating loss estimate of ¥13.4bn.</li>
<li>The company’s October and November 2020 performance was above its expectations as the China business performed exceptionally well during the singles day sales period. However, the momentum decelerated from December 2020 onwards due to the resurgence of COVID-19 in Japan and the rest of the world.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, the share price rallied over 16% during the last couple of weeks on news regarding the disposal of the personal care business.</li>
</ul>



Shiseido Company (4911 JP) delivered strong 4Q20 results yesterday with revenue and operating profit surpassing consensus estimates by ¥5.1bn and ¥19.5bn respectively.
The company’s revenue declined 6.2% YoY in 4Q20, compared to 17.1%, 34.4% and 16.3% in 1Q20, 2Q20 and 3Q20 respectively.
Shiseido made an operating profit of ¥6.1bn in the seasonally weak 4th quarter compared to the consensus operating loss estimate of ¥13.4bn.
The company’s October and November 2020 performance was above its expectations as the China business performed exceptionally well during the singles day sales period. However, the momentum decelerated from December 2020 onwards due to the resurgence of COVID-19 in Japan and the rest of the world.
Nonetheless, the share price rallied over 16% during the last couple of weeks on news regarding the disposal of the personal care business.


<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> delivered 3QFY21 results on 29th Friday with revenue and operating profit surpassing consensus estimates by 1.8% and 10.9% respectively. Kose's revenue declined just 5.6% YoY in 3QFY21, compared to 26.5% and 21.2% YoY in 1QFY21 and 2QFY21 respectively.The company’s 3QFY21 operating profit was ¥7.1bn, compared to ¥1.1bn in 1QFY21 and ¥2.9bn in 2QFY21. Travel Retail (TR) and E-Commerce (EC) continued to perform well with 46.3% and 34.3% YoY revenue growth in 3QFY21. (TR – 26.1% YoY in 1HFY21, EC – 52.5% YoY in 1HFY21)However, Kose lowered its FY21 revenue and OP guidance by 2.3% and 24.4% respectively, because of the new measures introduced to curtail the third wave of COVID-19.

Kose Corp (4922 JP) delivered 3QFY21 results on 29th Friday with revenue and operating profit surpassing consensus estimates by 1.8% and 10.9% respectively. Kose's revenue declined just 5.6% YoY in 3QFY21, compared to 26.5% and 21.2% YoY in 1QFY21 and 2QFY21 respectively.The company’s 3QFY21 operating profit was ¥7.1bn, compared to ¥1.1bn in 1QFY21 and ¥2.9bn in 2QFY21. Travel Retail (TR) and E-Commerce (EC) continued to perform well with 46.3% and 34.3% YoY revenue growth in 3QFY21. (TR – 26.1% YoY in 1HFY21, EC – 52.5% YoY in 1HFY21)However, Kose lowered its FY21 revenue and OP guidance by 2.3% and 24.4% respectively, because of the new measures introduced to curtail the third wave of COVID-19.

Kose: China and E-Commerce Propels Kose’s Performance Towards the Pre-Pandemic Level

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetics. The Company develops, produces, and distributes toners, masks, face creams, sun creams, and more. Shiseido also conducts beauty drinks, beauty salons, and other businesses.

Kao Corporation is a manufacturer of household and chemical products. The Company produces cosmetics, laundry and cleaning products, hygiene, fatty chemicals, edible oils, and specialty chemicals.

KOSE Corporation manufactures, retails, and exports cosmetics including make up, skin care, and hair care products.  The Company sells its products in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Malaysia.

KOBAYASHI PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and wholesales pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.  The Company also develops and manufactures fragrances, deodorant, sanitary products, and ointment for stiff shoulders, as well as exports to Southeast Asia and the US.

POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS INC. develops, manufactures and markets cosmetic products, centering in skincare  products. Under its multi-brand strategy, the Company holds nine cosmetic brands including POLA, prestige skincare brand, ORBIS, oil-free skincare brand, H2O PLUS and Jurlique.

FANCL CORPORATION produces and sells additive-free skin care cosmetics for both women and men.  The Company's products include cleansing creams, hair care goods such as shampoos and conditioners, and facial make up products.  Fancl also makes and distributes dietary supplements including royal jelly and various tablets with extracted essence from mushrooms, garlic, ginseng, and soy beans.

Rizap Group Inc provides low calorie foods including soy milk cookies, diet drinks, and supplements.  The Company sells its products through mail order.

Noevir Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells a variety of cosmetic products. The Company's products include skin care and make-up.  Noevir also manufactures and sells medicines, nutritional supplements and apparel.

Milbon Co., Ltd. manufactures hair care products for beauty salons.  The Company produces chemicals for permanents, hair coloring, shampoos, rinses, and hair growth stimulant products.

Dabur India Ltd. manufactures soaps, detergents, hair oils, tooth powders, antacids and processed foods. The Company sells its products worldwide.

Godrej Consumer Products Limited manufactures personal care, hair care, household care and fabric care products. The Company's products include toilet soaps, cosmetics, shaving creams, talcum powder, household cleaners and fabric detergents.

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. manufactures consumer products in the oral care and body care area. The Company's products include soaps, cosmetics, toilet preparations, toothpaste, toothbrushes, shaving brushes, and glycerin.

Coty Inc. manufactures and distributes beauty products. The Company offers fragrances, color cosmetics, hygiene, sun care, and skin treatment products. Coty supplies its products to department stores, specialty retailers, mass-market retailers, and duty free shops in airports worldwide.

Marico Limited manufactures consumer products and services in the beauty and wellness space. The Company is known for its presence in the following categories: Coconut Oil, Hair Oils, Anti-lice Treatment, Premium Refined Edible Oils and Fabric Care. Marico Limited is present in the Skin Care Services segment through Kaya Skin Clinics.

Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Healthcare Limited manufactures personal & beauty care and healthcare products. The Company's products include menthol, dementholised peppermint oil, cosmetics, personal care products, toilet preparations, soaps and detergents.

Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Healthcare (PG IN)

Amorepacific Corporation develops, manufactures, and exports skin care, make-up, and fragrance products. The Company also produces and markets personal care and health-related products, such as shampoos, soaps, toothpastes, and health teas.

Beiersdorf AG develops, manufactures, and markets personal care, disposable medical, and adhesive products. The Company produces skin and hair care products, bandages, surgical gloves, compression stockings, sun block lotion, fastening systems, masking products, and packaging systems.

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. operates as a cosmetic company. The Company offers beauty products for eyes, lips, and face. e.l.f. Beauty provides eyeliners, lipsticks, lip care and brushes, powder, and skin care products.

Hengan International Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells personal hygiene products such as sanitary napkins and disposable baby diapers in China.  The Company's products are sold under the Anerle brand name.

Kao Corporation is a manufacturer of household and chemical products. The company produces cosmetics, laundry and cleaning products, hygiene products, fatty chemicals, edible oils, and specialty chemicals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kao Corp (4452 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Greensill, Gaming Payables & The Seven Samurai of Supply Chain Finance

As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting...

Campbell Gunn

Best World International: The End Is Not Yet In Sight

SGX suspended trading of Best World shares in May 2019, following a news article and a short seller report alleging the company of fabricating...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Kose: At a New EV/OP Peak

On the back of the optimism over revenue growth from the Chinese cosmetics market, Japanese cosmetics companies with significant exposure to the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Shiseido: Lowballing 2021 Guidance

Previously, we questioned whether Shiseido is playing safe or departing from cost discipline as we felt that that the 4Q20 OP estimate was too low...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Kose: China and E-Commerce Propels Kose’s Performance Towards the Pre-Pandemic Level

Even though there are indications that Kose could be relaxing cost controls, an implied 4QFY21 OPM of 2.5% seem conservative making an OP beat a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)