External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.</li><li>We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.</li><li>USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).</li><li>The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Stocks like MicroStrategy and Tesla are starting to trade as if they have sniffed out an upcoming liquidity bazooka.</li><li>While it remains to be seen, markets have clearly been front-loading such bets in recent years as liquidity analysis has become democratized.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.Stocks like MicroStrategy and Tesla are starting to trade as if they have sniffed out an upcoming liquidity bazooka.While it remains to be seen, markets have clearly been front-loading such bets in recent years as liquidity analysis has become democratized.

Steno Signals #123 – The market is sniffing out a big liquidity increase

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.</li><li>We are on rates and JPY watch this week with bonds selling off across the curve in the US, and USDJPY is truly on the move as a response—but it is still WAY too overbought if you compare current spot levels to the implied levels when using real-rate spreads as a predictor.</li><li>The problem at this juncture is that the trend in USD real rates has turned for now, and markets are likely reacting to the direction of real rates rather than the actual level, as the carry obtained in USDJPY is still phenomenal.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.We are on rates and JPY watch this week with bonds selling off across the curve in the US, and USDJPY is truly on the move as a response—but it is still WAY too overbought if you compare current spot levels to the implied levels when using real-rate spreads as a predictor.The problem at this juncture is that the trend in USD real rates has turned for now, and markets are likely reacting to the direction of real rates rather than the actual level, as the carry obtained in USDJPY is still phenomenal.

Positioning Watch – USD rates are suddenly under the loop again

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>During the period under consideration, i.e. August 28th, 2024 to September 27th, 2024, the EUR/JPY exchange rate fluctuated between 155.97 and 162.63.</li><li>The MA-10 line was moving above the MA-20 line for the first week, and then it crossed below the MA-20, maintaining a steady downward movement until it crossed over it again on September 26th MA-20 line retained an immovable declining trend throughout the entire period.</li><li>Based on Graph 2, the CCI (red line) was moving in a descending trend at the beginning of the period under consideration but after September 6th the movement changed to the opposite direction, reaching the price of 100 and ending up slightly above the 50 level.</li></ul>

During the period under consideration, i.e. August 28th, 2024 to September 27th, 2024, the EUR/JPY exchange rate fluctuated between 155.97 and 162.63.The MA-10 line was moving above the MA-20 line for the first week, and then it crossed below the MA-20, maintaining a steady downward movement until it crossed over it again on September 26th MA-20 line retained an immovable declining trend throughout the entire period.Based on Graph 2, the CCI (red line) was moving in a descending trend at the beginning of the period under consideration but after September 6th the movement changed to the opposite direction, reaching the price of 100 and ending up slightly above the 50 level.

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/JPY - September 27, 2024

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Monthly FX Outlook – September 2024

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and...

Scotiabank

FX Forecast Update—October 2023

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #123 – The market is sniffing out a big liquidity increase

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen. Stocks like MicroStrategy and Tesla are starting to trade as if they have sniffed out an upcoming liquidity...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – USD rates are suddenly under the loop again

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. We are on rates and JPY watch this week with bonds selling off across the curve...

Steno Research

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/JPY - September 27, 2024

During the period under consideration, i.e. August 28th, 2024 to September 27th, 2024, the EUR/JPY exchange rate fluctuated between 155.97 and 162.63.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

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