Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with net interest income</li>
<li>Credit costs are also running substantially higher in January monthly data</li>
<li>Bank loan data suggests a strong economy, not overly positive for rates</li>
</ul>


US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with net interest income
Credit costs are also running substantially higher in January monthly data
Bank loan data suggests a strong economy, not overly positive for rates


Top 10 Mega Caps | Artificial Intelligence, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

Top 10 Mega Caps | Artificial Intelligence

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Google's ad revenue growth consensus is 11.7% YoY in Q2, with some analysts projecting even higher, reflecting robust global digital ad spend trends.</li>
<li>Google Cloud's revenue reached $9.5 billion in Q1 2024, marking a 35% YoY increase and a 4x growth over the past four years. Q2 expected to see continued growth. </li>
<li>AI investments and innovations showcased at Google I/O aim to boost user experience and market leadership, with potential double-digit growth.</li>
</ul>


Google's ad revenue growth consensus is 11.7% YoY in Q2, with some analysts projecting even higher, reflecting robust global digital ad spend trends.
Google Cloud's revenue reached $9.5 billion in Q1 2024, marking a 35% YoY increase and a 4x growth over the past four years. Q2 expected to see continued growth. 
AI investments and innovations showcased at Google I/O aim to boost user experience and market leadership, with potential double-digit growth.


[Q2 Earnings Preview] Google: Ad Revenue & Cloud Growth Plus AI Advancements in Focus

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.</li><li>As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.</li><li>We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.</li></ul>

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

<ul>
<li>HFD on US bankruptcy filings suggest more stresses to come from consumer card loans</li>
<li>US large banks are more exposed to consumer card loans, but small banks have more CRE</li>
<li>Even where many are seeing far higher charge-offs and impairment costs, HFD suggests these will rise more, and historical peaks, are also far higher</li>
</ul>


HFD on US bankruptcy filings suggest more stresses to come from consumer card loans
US large banks are more exposed to consumer card loans, but small banks have more CRE
Even where many are seeing far higher charge-offs and impairment costs, HFD suggests these will rise more, and historical peaks, are also far higher


US Banks - Weekly US Bankruptcies Rising, US Consumer Defaults More Risk to Large Banks

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

<ul>
<li>JPM generated USD 38.9B in profits for the first 9 months of 2023, or about 18% of the industry total.</li>
<li>Since start of 2023, JPM has outperformed S&amp;P by 450 bps and Invesco KBW Bank ETF by a staggering 32.47%.</li>
<li>Tight financial conditions, inflation, elevated rates, &amp; lacklustre M&amp;A activity, will hammer Q4 bank earnings. But JPM will buck the trend.</li>
</ul>


JPM generated USD 38.9B in profits for the first 9 months of 2023, or about 18% of the industry total.
Since start of 2023, JPM has outperformed S&amp;P by 450 bps and Invesco KBW Bank ETF by a staggering 32.47%.
Tight financial conditions, inflation, elevated rates, &amp; lacklustre M&amp;A activity, will hammer Q4 bank earnings. But JPM will buck the trend.


[Earnings Preview] JP Morgan Poised to Outperform on Superior NIM & Fortuitous Acquisitions

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

US Banks - Not Just Silicon Risk

US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with respect to rising deposit rates, worsening net interest income, and rising credit costs.

Daniel Tabbush

[Q2 Earnings Preview] Google: Ad Revenue & Cloud Growth Plus AI Advancements in Focus

Google's Q2 earnings on 23/Jul will focus on projected 11.7% ad revenue growth, cloud earnings & AI innovations. Key acquisitions highlight...

Mint Finance

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of...

Steno Research

US Banks - Weekly US Bankruptcies Rising, US Consumer Defaults More Risk to Large Banks

Weekly US bankruptcy filings are rising, these appear to be higher than dire days of FY20 now. High rates, high inflation, buy now pay later, are...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] JP Morgan Poised to Outperform on Superior NIM & Fortuitous Acquisitions

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) reported record profits of USD 49.6bn in 2023 fuelled by windfall from rising interest rates. Read comments for more details.

Mint Finance

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