Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a> pre-markets a US$1bn IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-Tail (ITC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunshine-insurance-group-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36464:1" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK)</a> have tepid debuts, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weilong-delicious-global-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33378:1" rel="noopener">Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK)</a> launches a US$141m IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bigtincan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29067:1" rel="noopener">Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - VinFast (1905332D VN) pre-markets a US$1bn IPO, I-Tail (ITC TB) and Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) have tepid debuts, Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK) launches a US$141m IPO.
Event-Driven developments - Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Xingda International (1899 HK), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP).


Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) - Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-Tail (ITC TB)</a> priced its IPO at THB32 per share, the top-end of the price range, to raise gross proceeds of THB21,120m (US$608m). The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/i-tail-corporation-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:83568" rel="noopener">I-Tail Corporation IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/i-tail-corporation-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:83629" rel="noopener">I-Tail Corporation IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/i-tail-corporation-ipo-a-strong-3q-results-update" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:84125" rel="noopener">I-Tail Corporation IPO: A Strong 3Q Results Update</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/i-tail-corporation-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:84288" rel="noopener">I-Tail Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>Peers have re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 P/E multiple. Therefore, the IPO price remains attractive.</li>
</ul>



I-Tail (ITC TB) priced its IPO at THB32 per share, the top-end of the price range, to raise gross proceeds of THB21,120m (US$608m). The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO  I-Tail Corporation IPO: The Bull Case, I-Tail Corporation IPO: The Bear Case, I-Tail Corporation IPO: A Strong 3Q Results Update, I-Tail Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights. 
Peers have re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 P/E multiple. Therefore, the IPO price remains attractive.


United States

The JM Smucker Company manufactures and markets food products on a worldwide basis. The Company's principal products include peanut butter, shortening and oils, fruit spreads, canned milk, baking mixes and ready-to-spread frostings, flour and baking ingredients, juices and beverages, frozen sandwiches, dessert toppings, syrups, pickles and condiments, and potato side dishes.

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Jm Smucker Co (SJM US)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) - Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Toshiba, Bigtincan, Genex, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, Singapore Medical) and ECM (VinFast,...

Arun George

I-Tail Corporation IPO: Trading Debut

Peers have re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 P/E multiple. Therefore, the IPO price remains...

Arun George

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