Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/green-tea-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34599:1" rel="noopener">Green Tea Group (GT HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>Green Tea Group is a restaurant chain operator for fusion cuisine in China. </li>
<li>As of the latest practicable date (LPD), it had a restaurant network of 236 restaurants covering 18 provinces, four municipalities and three autonomous regions in the PRC.</li>
</ul>



Green Tea Group (GT HK) is looking to raise about US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
Green Tea Group is a restaurant chain operator for fusion cuisine in China. 
As of the latest practicable date (LPD), it had a restaurant network of 236 restaurants covering 18 provinces, four municipalities and three autonomous regions in the PRC.


Green Tea Group Pre-IPO - Growing for the Sake of Growth

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/green-tea-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34599:1" rel="noopener">Green Tea Group (GT HK)</a> received the Hong Kong Stock Exchange approval to launch its IPO on 7th March 2022, almost a year after filing its first application.</li>
<li>The company expects to raise around US$100-200m via an IPO jointly sponsored by Citi and CMB International.</li>
<li>Growth prospects look decent with plans to open 75-100 new restaurants each year. However, We aren’t excited about the IPO as the Company's business model seems significantly weaker than peers.</li>
</ul>



Green Tea Group (GT HK) received the Hong Kong Stock Exchange approval to launch its IPO on 7th March 2022, almost a year after filing its first application.
The company expects to raise around US$100-200m via an IPO jointly sponsored by Citi and CMB International.
Growth prospects look decent with plans to open 75-100 new restaurants each year. However, We aren’t excited about the IPO as the Company's business model seems significantly weaker than peers.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 18. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in AIA (1299 HK) and Bank of China (3988 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 18. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short interest changes in AIA (1299 HK) and Bank of China (3988 HK).


Tam Jai International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Although the recent media reports suggested overwhelming interest from both retail and institutional investors, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2271 HK)</a> IPO subscription status was not all that great with subscription rates of 29.6x and 3.9x for the Hong Kong offer and international offer respectively.</li>
<li>Consequently, the IPO was priced at the low end of the offer range at HK$ 3.33 per share, which implies a market cap and EV of HK$ 4.5bn and HK$ 3.1bn respectively.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, we remain unruffled by the surprisingly low IPO subscriptions as 66% of the Hong Kong IPO during the last three months made listing gains with less than 5.0x subscriptions (international offer).</li>
</ul>


Although the recent media reports suggested overwhelming interest from both retail and institutional investors, the Tam Jai International (2271 HK) IPO subscription status was not all that great with subscription rates of 29.6x and 3.9x for the Hong Kong offer and international offer respectively.
Consequently, the IPO was priced at the low end of the offer range at HK$ 3.33 per share, which implies a market cap and EV of HK$ 4.5bn and HK$ 3.1bn respectively.
Nevertheless, we remain unruffled by the surprisingly low IPO subscriptions as 66% of the Hong Kong IPO during the last three months made listing gains with less than 5.0x subscriptions (international offer).


China

Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on manufactures food products. Jiumaojiu International Holdings serves customers in China.

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Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

Green Tea Group Pre-IPO - Growing for the Sake of Growth

Green Tea Group (GT HK) is looking to raise about US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Green Tea Group is a restaurant chain operator for fusion...

Clarence Chu

Green Tea Group IPO Preview

Growth prospects look decent with plans to open 75-100 new restaurants each year. However, We aren’t excited about the IPO as Green Tea's business...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

HK Short Interest: AIA, Bank of China

We highlight week on week short interest changes in AIA (1299 HK) and Bank of China (3988 HK) based on the latest HK SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tam Jai International IPO Valuation

Tam Jai IPO seems to be priced at a steep discount to peers, suggesting limited downside risk to Tam Jai’s IPO price. Therefore, we remain...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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