Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Jinxin Fertility Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Jinxin announced in recent days that it further increases stake in Shenzhen Hospital, Jiuzhou Hospital and Hewanjia Hospital.</li>
<li>In this note, we analyze the impact on the company. We think the acquisition is sensible when the market sentiment is weak. </li>
<li>We also summarize recent industry development and the company's FY2021 results. We are turning relatively more bearish.</li>
</ul>


Jinxin announced in recent days that it further increases stake in Shenzhen Hospital, Jiuzhou Hospital and Hewanjia Hospital.
In this note, we analyze the impact on the company. We think the acquisition is sensible when the market sentiment is weak. 
We also summarize recent industry development and the company's FY2021 results. We are turning relatively more bearish.


Jinxin Fertility: Shenzhen and Yunnan Acquisitions

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>As China’s leading assisted reproductive service provider, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinxin-fertility-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28003:1" rel="noopener">Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)</a> can be negatively affected by the country’s consistently falling birth rate.</li>
<li>The company performed 27,354 IVF cycles in 2021, 20% higher than that of 2020. However, it is still lower than 27,854 IVF cycles performed in 2019, pre-COVID era.</li>
<li>Concern over the fact that the Chinese government may impose restrictions on the for-profit healthcare service providers, like it did for K12 education sector, is souring near-term sentiment.</li>
</ul>


As China’s leading assisted reproductive service provider, Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK) can be negatively affected by the country’s consistently falling birth rate.
The company performed 27,354 IVF cycles in 2021, 20% higher than that of 2020. However, it is still lower than 27,854 IVF cycles performed in 2019, pre-COVID era.
Concern over the fact that the Chinese government may impose restrictions on the for-profit healthcare service providers, like it did for K12 education sector, is souring near-term sentiment.


Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK): Regulatory Risk and Macro Headwind Jeopardize Growth Prospect

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>IVF penetration rate in China is not high and the rate of improvement is very slow. With public hospitals accounting for over 90% market share, Jinxin’s growth space is limited.</li>
<li>Jinxin has extended its business scope to support the entire fertility and pregnancy lifecycle. But it could drag down the overall net profit margin,resulting in lower-than-expected performance in the end.</li>
<li>The breakthrough point is internationalization. If COVID-19 is under control and Jinxin continues to expand overseas markets successfully, it could change its valuation logic and open up upward potential.</li>
</ul>


IVF penetration rate in China is not high and the rate of improvement is very slow. With public hospitals accounting for over 90% market share, Jinxin’s growth space is limited.
Jinxin has extended its business scope to support the entire fertility and pregnancy lifecycle. But it could drag down the overall net profit margin,resulting in lower-than-expected performance in the end.
The breakthrough point is internationalization. If COVID-19 is under control and Jinxin continues to expand overseas markets successfully, it could change its valuation logic and open up upward potential.


Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951.HK) - The Outlook Is Not Optimistic Even with Policy Support

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Including the A$0.12 permitted dividend (paid on 14 April), CapVest’s revised scheme offer is A$8.27 and the off-market takeover offer is A$8.22. The new offer addresses the capital return issue.</li>
<li>Despite today’s <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02509261_PS-2A1368239?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">interims orders</a> from the takeover panel, CapVest’s scheme transaction still has virtually no chance of getting up due to BGH's 19.99% stake.</li>
<li>BGH’s like-for-like off-market offer price of A$8.12 per share is 1.2% below CapVest’s off-market offer, suggesting that there is more life to this takeover tussle for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Including the A$0.12 permitted dividend (paid on 14 April), CapVest’s revised scheme offer is A$8.27 and the off-market takeover offer is A$8.22. The new offer addresses the capital return issue.
Despite today’s interims orders from the takeover panel, CapVest’s scheme transaction still has virtually no chance of getting up due to BGH's 19.99% stake.
BGH’s like-for-like off-market offer price of A$8.12 per share is 1.2% below CapVest’s off-market offer, suggesting that there is more life to this takeover tussle for Virtus Health (VRT AU).


CapVest Fights Back with Revised Offers for Virtus

<ul>
<li>BGH announced an unconditional off-market takeover offer at A$8.00 cash per share along with intention for on-market purchases equal to, below, or higher than the offer price.</li>
<li>CapVest’s scheme transaction while superior has virtually no chance of getting up. CapVest’s off-market transaction is less appealing due to the uncertain outcome of the ATO ruling.</li>
<li>The last close price of A$8.15 is higher than both BGH and CapVest’s off-market offers which suggest both would need to raise their bid.  </li>
</ul>


BGH announced an unconditional off-market takeover offer at A$8.00 cash per share along with intention for on-market purchases equal to, below, or higher than the offer price.
CapVest’s scheme transaction while superior has virtually no chance of getting up. CapVest’s off-market transaction is less appealing due to the uncertain outcome of the ATO ruling.
The last close price of A$8.15 is higher than both BGH and CapVest’s off-market offers which suggest both would need to raise their bid.  


BGH Returns with an A$8.00 Off-Market Takeover Bid for Virtus

China

Jinxin Fertility Group Limited provides assisted reproductive services. The Company offers vitro fertilization services, embryo transfer services, management services, and other services. Jinxin Fertility Group also provides ancillary medical services.

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Jinxin Fertility Group (1951 HK)

Jinxin Fertility: Shenzhen and Yunnan Acquisitions

We analyze the impact of its recent acquisition of stakes in Shenzhen Hospital and two Yunnan hospitals, and recent industry and company...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK): Regulatory Risk and Macro Headwind Jeopardize Growth Prospect

China’s record low birth rate and policy overhangs are souring investor sentiment on Jinxin Fertility. Current COVID situation in China is also not...

Tina Banerjee

Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951.HK) - The Outlook Is Not Optimistic Even with Policy Support

Despite “Third Child Policy”, Jinxin's outlook is challenging due to low IVF penetration rate, dominance of public hospitals, low profit margin of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CapVest Fights Back with Revised Offers for Virtus

Including the permitted dividend, CapVest’s revised scheme is A$8.27 and the off-market takeover is A$8.22. There is more life to this takeover...

Arun George

BGH Returns with an A$8.00 Off-Market Takeover Bid for Virtus

CapVest’s scheme offer while superior to BGH's off-market offer has virtually no chance of getting up. CapVest’s off-market offer is less appealing...

Arun George

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