Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>October's industry numbers hide pricing turmoil seen at company level</li>
<li>STO Express appears to be using price to gain share from Yunda, others</li>
<li>We believe price competition continues to hurt 'ground' express margins</li>
</ul>


October's industry numbers hide pricing turmoil seen at company level
STO Express appears to be using price to gain share from Yunda, others
We believe price competition continues to hurt 'ground' express margins


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2</li>
<li>FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled</li>
<li>Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth</li>
</ul>


Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2
FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled
Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth


CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>JD.com reported in-line revenue and a non-GAAP net profit beat of 12% vs. consensus, mainly due to the 145% beat by subsidiary JD Logistics (JDL).</li>
<li>3Q GMV grew low-single digit and growth could remain similar in 4Q given the high-COVID related FMCG base. JDs GMV may reaccelerate in 2024 as smartphone and FMCG growth returns.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, JD lowered the minimum spend required for free shipping, which we expect to lead to accelerate parcel volume growth for JD Logistic. </li>
</ul>


JD.com reported in-line revenue and a non-GAAP net profit beat of 12% vs. consensus, mainly due to the 145% beat by subsidiary JD Logistics (JDL).
3Q GMV grew low-single digit and growth could remain similar in 4Q given the high-COVID related FMCG base. JDs GMV may reaccelerate in 2024 as smartphone and FMCG growth returns.
Meanwhile, JD lowered the minimum spend required for free shipping, which we expect to lead to accelerate parcel volume growth for JD Logistic. 


[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: Key JD Categories Will Grow Again in 2024

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T debuted with a rich valuation, but little investor enthusiasm to date</li>
<li>Focusing on J&amp;T's valuation alone could be a boon to CaiNiao's valuation...</li>
<li>...but, with few other comps, J&amp;T's lackluster early performance could be a drag</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T debuted with a rich valuation, but little investor enthusiasm to date
Focusing on J&amp;T's valuation alone could be a boon to CaiNiao's valuation...
...but, with few other comps, J&amp;T's lackluster early performance could be a drag


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" Securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In a couple of weeks, the official index changes and the indicative weights for the final index members for the December 2023 rebalance will be announced.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in December 2023.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" Securities listed in Hong Kong.
In a couple of weeks, the official index changes and the indicative weights for the final index members for the December 2023 rebalance will be announced.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in December 2023.


Quiddity HSCEI Dec 23 Rebalance: Zhongsheng Vs China Grand Pair Interesting if Deletion Is Confirmed

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Companies focused on China's domestic 'ground' express continued to experience price pressures in October. These pressures will continue in the...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: Key JD Categories Will Grow Again in 2024

JD reported strong revenue and profit, with subsidiary JDL performing well. Growth in GMV is expected to remain steady, but may pick up in 2024....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation

For better or worse, we believe investors will view J&T Global Express' recent IPO as the primary reference point for CaiNiao's planned IPO in Hong...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity HSCEI Dec 23 Rebalance: Zhongsheng Vs China Grand Pair Interesting if Deletion Is Confirmed

I see China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) as an Expected ADD and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) as an Expected DEL. My current estimate for one-way capping...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

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Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Companies focused on China's domestic 'ground' express continued to experience price pressures in October. These pressures will continue in the...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: Key JD Categories Will Grow Again in 2024

​JD reported strong revenue and profit, with subsidiary JDL performing well. Growth in GMV is expected to remain steady, but may pick up in 2024....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation

For better or worse, we believe investors will view J&T Global Express' recent IPO as the primary reference point for CaiNiao's planned IPO in Hong...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity HSCEI Dec 23 Rebalance: Zhongsheng Vs China Grand Pair Interesting if Deletion Is Confirmed

I see China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) as an Expected ADD and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) as an Expected DEL. My current estimate for one-way capping...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JD reported strong revenue and profit, with subsidiary JDL performing well. Growth in GMV is expected to remain steady, but may pick up in 2024....