Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

WeDoctor Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  </li>
<li>My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.</li>
<li>I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?</li>
</ul>


According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  
My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?


We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

<ul>
<li>We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.</li>
<li>The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.  </li>
</ul>


We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.  


We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2025, the NHSA will continue to deepen the VBP of drugs and centralized procurement of medical consumables, covering 700 drug varieties in total. </li>
<li>Valuation of the entire industry has been sluggish for three years. With the positive changes, we think it is the time to be optimistic on China healthcare in 2025.</li>
<li>Due to the craze for DeepSeek/AI, PAGD's stock price surged.Although this is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified.</li>
</ul>


In 2025, the NHSA will continue to deepen the VBP of drugs and centralized procurement of medical consumables, covering 700 drug varieties in total. 
Valuation of the entire industry has been sluggish for three years. With the positive changes, we think it is the time to be optimistic on China healthcare in 2025.
Due to the craze for DeepSeek/AI, PAGD's stock price surged.Although this is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.23)-Ping An Good Doctor Shares Surge, China Healthcare Has Bottomed Out

<ul>
<li>Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.</li>
<li>Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.</li>
<li>The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.</li>
</ul>


Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.
Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.
The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) - Thoughts About The Mandatory General Offer and Outlook

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>O2O has made a huge impact on China's e-commerce scene in 2024. The Coupang-invented model suits mega cities with dense population and order volumes;</li>
<li>Online drug O2O, in particular, has gained momentum because drugs, prescription and non-prescription have robust storage and distribution needs on the ground for O2O use;</li>
<li>Meituan's drug sales has grown its overall market share from 3.6% in 2022 to 7.1% in 2024. We project it to grow to 12.3% by 2030. </li>
</ul>


O2O has made a huge impact on China's e-commerce scene in 2024. The Coupang-invented model suits mega cities with dense population and order volumes;
Online drug O2O, in particular, has gained momentum because drugs, prescription and non-prescription have robust storage and distribution needs on the ground for O2O use;
Meituan's drug sales has grown its overall market share from 3.6% in 2022 to 7.1% in 2024. We project it to grow to 12.3% by 2030. 


Meituan (3690 HK): Online Drug Sales Is the First Sweet Spot of O2O Vs. E-Commerce

China

JD Health International Inc. operates drug stores. The Company retails Chinese and Western medicines, nutrition products, health care products, and other products. JD Health International markets its products throughout China.

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JD Health International (6618 HK)

We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

In my insight, I discuss expectations from upcoming We Doctor Holdings IPO and provide some thoughts on IPO valuation target ahead of the offering...

Andrei Zakharov

We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO

We Doctor, a Tencent-backed online healthcare platform and provider of AI-enabled medical services in China, has refiled PHIP to proceed with up to...

Andrei Zakharov

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.23)-Ping An Good Doctor Shares Surge, China Healthcare Has Bottomed Out

NHSA to expand VBP in 2025. China healthcare has entered the stage of bottoming out from 2025.The extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) - Thoughts About The Mandatory General Offer and Outlook

The current stock price performance of Ping An Good Doctor (PAGD) significantly underperforms peers JD Health and Alibaba Health. As analyzed, due...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Meituan (3690 HK): Online Drug Sales Is the First Sweet Spot of O2O Vs. E-Commerce

O2O revolutionizes China's e-commerce, especially in online drug sales with Meituan leading the way to significant market share growth. The share...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

In my insight, I discuss expectations from upcoming We Doctor Holdings IPO and provide some thoughts on IPO valuation target ahead of the offering...

Andrei Zakharov

We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO

We Doctor, a Tencent-backed online healthcare platform and provider of AI-enabled medical services in China, has refiled PHIP to proceed with up to...

Andrei Zakharov

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.23)-Ping An Good Doctor Shares Surge, China Healthcare Has Bottomed Out

​NHSA to expand VBP in 2025. China healthcare has entered the stage of bottoming out from 2025.The extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) - Thoughts About The Mandatory General Offer and Outlook

The current stock price performance of Ping An Good Doctor (PAGD) significantly underperforms peers JD Health and Alibaba Health. As analyzed, due...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Meituan (3690 HK): Online Drug Sales Is the First Sweet Spot of O2O Vs. E-Commerce

​O2O revolutionizes China's e-commerce, especially in online drug sales with Meituan leading the way to significant market share growth. The share...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NHSA to expand VBP in 2025. China healthcare has entered the stage of bottoming out from 2025.The extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial...

O2O revolutionizes China's e-commerce, especially in online drug sales with Meituan leading the way to significant market share growth. The share...