Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Information Technology and Financials sectors, while decreasing in Health Care, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagoya-railroad-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8652:1" rel="noopener">Nagoya Railroad (9048 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyushu-railway-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23609:1" rel="noopener">Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19572:1" rel="noopener">Thk Co Ltd (6481 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in almost all sectors led by Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials.</p></div><div>
<p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-electric-power-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16:1" rel="noopener">Korea Electric Power (015760 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">Posco (005490 KS)</a>.</p>
<p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11084:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Technology (2492 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foxconn-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11950:1" rel="noopener">Foxconn Technology (2354 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-unichip-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10305:1" rel="noopener">Global Unichip (3443 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhen-ding-technology-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16830:1" rel="noopener">Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT)</a>. Short notional in Taiwan is rising fast and outpacing the rise in the market.</p>
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Tencent (700 HK), ICBC (H) (1398 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK), Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) and AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) and China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK). Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Information Technology and Financials sectors, while decreasing in Health Care, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary.In Japan, stocks increased on Oriental Land (4661 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP), Nagoya Railroad (9048 JP), Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) and Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP) while there was short covering on Monex Group Inc (8698 JP), Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501 JP), Sharp Corp (6753 JP), Thk Co Ltd (6481 JP) and SBI Holdings (8473 JP). Shorts increased in almost all sectors led by Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials.
In Korea, shorts increased on Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS), LG Display (034220 KS) and SK Innovation (096770 KS) while shorts were covered on HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS), Korea Electric Power (015760 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Posco (005490 KS).
In Taiwan, shorts increased on TSMC (2330 TT), Innolux Corp (3481 TT), Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT), United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), Taiwan Cement (1101 TT) while shorts covered on Pegatron Corp (4938 TT), Walsin Technology (2492 TT), Foxconn Technology (2354 TT), Global Unichip (3443 TT) and Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT). Short notional in Taiwan is rising fast and outpacing the rise in the market.


Asia Shorts: Tencent, AIA, JD, CICC, Canon, Renesas, Monex, HMC, LGD, HMM, KEPCO, Innolux, Wan Hai

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>About that lab of yours…</li>
<li>Crypto crackdown marches on</li>
<li>Managing Chinese wealth</li>
<li>Taming the world’s wildest stretch of river </li>
<li>Driverless deliveries by car and truck</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That Matters
About that lab of yours…
Crypto crackdown marches on
Managing Chinese wealth
Taming the world’s wildest stretch of river 
Driverless deliveries by car and truck
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Covid-19/ Crypto/ Goldman/ Energy/ Unmanned

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has still significantly outperformed both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> on a 12month basis, it has significantly lagged over, especially, the past 3months as we have witnessed increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) as well as the possibility of a regulatory-induced restructuring of its financial services operations along with the prospect for slowing games revenue growth (which still contributes 32% to Group Revenue and &gt;50% to Group Gross Profit). </p><p>In this insight, I take a closer look at the Chinese online games industry, its long-term opportunity in the context of the global games industry, and the relative performance of key games developers and publishers. With online games revenue growth set to decelerate significantly this year, of the high base set during the stay-at-home COVID-19 impacted 2020, Tencent should be able to draw on its competitive advantages to continue its relative outperformance.</p>

Although Tencent (700 HK) has still significantly outperformed both NetEase (9999 HK) and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) on a 12month basis, it has significantly lagged over, especially, the past 3months as we have witnessed increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) as well as the possibility of a regulatory-induced restructuring of its financial services operations along with the prospect for slowing games revenue growth (which still contributes 32% to Group Revenue and &gt;50% to Group Gross Profit). In this insight, I take a closer look at the Chinese online games industry, its long-term opportunity in the context of the global games industry, and the relative performance of key games developers and publishers. With online games revenue growth set to decelerate significantly this year, of the high base set during the stay-at-home COVID-19 impacted 2020, Tencent should be able to draw on its competitive advantages to continue its relative outperformance.

Tencent: A Closer Look at the Online Games Market and Its Relative Strength as Revenue Growth Slows

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> , the logistics arm of China’s second largest e-commerce platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> has priced its IPO at HK$40.36 a share, about 2.5% higher than the lower end of the IPO price range of HK$39.36-43.36 a share despite generating significant interest from both retail and institutional investors. According to news media outlets, the offer was oversubscribed by more than 700x.</p><p>JD Logistics will raise approx. HK$24.6bn at the IPO price of HK$40.36 per share (assuming over-allotment is not exercised). If the over-allotment option of additional 90m shares is exercised, JD Logistics’ will raise additional proceeds of HK$3.6bn increasing the total proceeds to HK$28.2bn.</p>

JD Logistics (2618 HK) , the logistics arm of China’s second largest e-commerce platform JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) has priced its IPO at HK$40.36 a share, about 2.5% higher than the lower end of the IPO price range of HK$39.36-43.36 a share despite generating significant interest from both retail and institutional investors. According to news media outlets, the offer was oversubscribed by more than 700x.JD Logistics will raise approx. HK$24.6bn at the IPO price of HK$40.36 per share (assuming over-allotment is not exercised). If the over-allotment option of additional 90m shares is exercised, JD Logistics’ will raise additional proceeds of HK$3.6bn increasing the total proceeds to HK$28.2bn.

JD Logistics IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>’s Q1 was not all that bad. Revenue was up 239% YoY to RMB 22.2bn compared to the consensus estimate of RMB 20.6bn. Non-GAAP operating income reached RMB -3.2bn (an OPM of -14.3% compared to OPMs of -54.9%, -5.9%, -2.4% and -4.2% in 1Q20, 2Q20, 3Q20 and 4Q20 respectively) in 1Q21 compared to the consensus estimate of RMB -3.6bn. Yet investors were cautious as shares plunged a 9.9% from the day’s open price of US$ 137.2, to close the day at US$ 123.6 per share. This wasn’t surprising as most tech companies had weak share price performance despite stellar Q1 earnings.</p>

Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s Q1 was not all that bad. Revenue was up 239% YoY to RMB 22.2bn compared to the consensus estimate of RMB 20.6bn. Non-GAAP operating income reached RMB -3.2bn (an OPM of -14.3% compared to OPMs of -54.9%, -5.9%, -2.4% and -4.2% in 1Q20, 2Q20, 3Q20 and 4Q20 respectively) in 1Q21 compared to the consensus estimate of RMB -3.6bn. Yet investors were cautious as shares plunged a 9.9% from the day’s open price of US$ 137.2, to close the day at US$ 123.6 per share. This wasn’t surprising as most tech companies had weak share price performance despite stellar Q1 earnings.

China

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (9618 HK)

Asia Shorts: Tencent, AIA, JD, CICC, Canon, Renesas, Monex, HMC, LGD, HMM, KEPCO, Innolux, Wan Hai

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Covid-19/ Crypto/ Goldman/ Energy/ Unmanned

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Tencent: A Closer Look at the Online Games Market and Its Relative Strength as Revenue Growth Slows

In this insight, I take a closer look at the Chinese online games industry, its long-term opportunity in a global context, and the relative...

Wium Malan, CFA

JD Logistics IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By pricing JD Logistics' shares close to the lower end of the IPO price range, we believe the company is offering enough room for shares to rise...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Pinduoduo: Downside Not Fully Priced In

Downward trajectory still seems rather steep for Pinduoduo while other EC names like Alibaba, Vipshop & JD.com offers more downside protection....

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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