Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BABA reported C3Q23 revenue, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 6% and (7%) vs. our est., and in-line, in-line and (14%);</li>
<li>Instead of appointing capable management to oversee key subsidiaries, BABA backpedalled to call off its spin-off plans;</li>
<li>We cut TP from US$ 127 to US$ 72, and downgrade to SELL.</li>
</ul>


BABA reported C3Q23 revenue, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 6% and (7%) vs. our est., and in-line, in-line and (14%);
Instead of appointing capable management to oversee key subsidiaries, BABA backpedalled to call off its spin-off plans;
We cut TP from US$ 127 to US$ 72, and downgrade to SELL.


[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$72) Rating Change]: The Casualty of Era…Downgrade to SELL

<ul>
<li>JD.com reported in-line revenue and a non-GAAP net profit beat of 12% vs. consensus, mainly due to the 145% beat by subsidiary JD Logistics (JDL).</li>
<li>3Q GMV grew low-single digit and growth could remain similar in 4Q given the high-COVID related FMCG base. JDs GMV may reaccelerate in 2024 as smartphone and FMCG growth returns.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, JD lowered the minimum spend required for free shipping, which we expect to lead to accelerate parcel volume growth for JD Logistic. </li>
</ul>


JD.com reported in-line revenue and a non-GAAP net profit beat of 12% vs. consensus, mainly due to the 145% beat by subsidiary JD Logistics (JDL).
3Q GMV grew low-single digit and growth could remain similar in 4Q given the high-COVID related FMCG base. JDs GMV may reaccelerate in 2024 as smartphone and FMCG growth returns.
Meanwhile, JD lowered the minimum spend required for free shipping, which we expect to lead to accelerate parcel volume growth for JD Logistic. 


[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: Key JD Categories Will Grow Again in 2024

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just how high, as they rolled out discount-heavy strategies to encourage reluctant consumers to spend.
</li>
<li>
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. had offered a slew of discounts to attract shoppers as the recovery in household consumption in the world’s second largest economy <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2023-10-18/chinas-third-quarter-gdp-grows-102117643.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">slowly gained momentum in recent months</a>.
</li>
<li>
Alibaba said that both gross merchandise value (GMV) and order amount on Taobao and Tmall from Oct. 24 to Nov. 11 rose from the same period last year.
</li>
</ul>



China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just how high, as they rolled out discount-heavy strategies to encourage reluctant consumers to spend.


Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. had offered a slew of discounts to attract shoppers as the recovery in household consumption in the world’s second largest economy slowly gained momentum in recent months.


Alibaba said that both gross merchandise value (GMV) and order amount on Taobao and Tmall from Oct. 24 to Nov. 11 rose from the same period last year.



Alibaba, JD.com Report Double 11 Sales Growth   

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>JD.com (JD) reported (15 Nov) better-than-feared 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB247.7bn, up 1.7% YoY, 0.7/0.5% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB10.6bn, ahead of our/consensus estimates of RMB8.8/9.2bn, thanks to better-than-feared margin performance of JD Retail (JDR) business, in our view, demonstrating JD’s ability to retain the wallet share of its core consumer base in an effective way, and translating into a non-GAAP NPM of 4.3% (3Q22: 4.1%).</li><li>Management highlighted double-digit order and user growth during the Double 11 shopping festival, noted that business adjustment impact will largely wear off in 2024, and guided to achieve a better-than-China retail sales growth performance in 2024. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD) reported (15 Nov) better-than-feared 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB247.7bn, up 1.7% YoY, 0.7/0.5% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus.Non-GAAP net income was RMB10.6bn, ahead of our/consensus estimates of RMB8.8/9.2bn, thanks to better-than-feared margin performance of JD Retail (JDR) business, in our view, demonstrating JD’s ability to retain the wallet share of its core consumer base in an effective way, and translating into a non-GAAP NPM of 4.3% (3Q22: 4.1%).Management highlighted double-digit order and user growth during the Double 11 shopping festival, noted that business adjustment impact will largely wear off in 2024, and guided to achieve a better-than-China retail sales growth performance in 2024. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD US) – Better-Than-Feared 3Q Results

<ul>
<li>BABA/ JD/ PDD/ 1024.HK/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Double 11 eCommerce update (+)</li>
<li>BABA/BIDU/700HK: Alibaba Cloud crashed for several hours during the weekend (-/+/+)</li>
<li>On November 12, 2023 Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours, and in the process resulted in outages for Alibaba services and customer websites that stopped functioning properly.</li>
</ul>


BABA/ JD/ PDD/ 1024.HK/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Double 11 eCommerce update (+)
BABA/BIDU/700HK: Alibaba Cloud crashed for several hours during the weekend (-/+/+)
On November 12, 2023 Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours, and in the process resulted in outages for Alibaba services and customer websites that stopped functioning properly.


[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$72) Rating Change]: The Casualty of Era…Downgrade to SELL

Alibaba's Q3 revenue and profit were in line with expectations, but the company cancelled its spin-off plans and we have downgraded our rating to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: Key JD Categories Will Grow Again in 2024

JD reported strong revenue and profit, with subsidiary JDL performing well. Growth in GMV is expected to remain steady, but may pick up in 2024....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba, JD.com Report Double 11 Sales Growth

China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just...

Caixin Global

JD.com (JD US) – Better-Than-Feared 3Q Results

JD.com (JD) reported (15 Nov) better-than-feared 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB247.7bn, up 1.7% YoY, 0.7/0.5% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

Double 11 eCommerce update;Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours during last weekend, third-party Alibaba Cloud Customers were also...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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Market Cap (USDm)

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[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$72) Rating Change]: The Casualty of Era…Downgrade to SELL

​Alibaba's Q3 revenue and profit were in line with expectations, but the company cancelled its spin-off plans and we have downgraded our rating to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: Key JD Categories Will Grow Again in 2024

​JD reported strong revenue and profit, with subsidiary JDL performing well. Growth in GMV is expected to remain steady, but may pick up in 2024....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba, JD.com Report Double 11 Sales Growth

China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just...

Caixin Global

JD.com (JD US) – Better-Than-Feared 3Q Results

JD.com (JD) reported (15 Nov) better-than-feared 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB247.7bn, up 1.7% YoY, 0.7/0.5% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

​Double 11 eCommerce update;Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours during last weekend, third-party Alibaba Cloud Customers were also...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba's Q3 revenue and profit were in line with expectations, but the company cancelled its spin-off plans and we have downgraded our rating to...

JD reported strong revenue and profit, with subsidiary JDL performing well. Growth in GMV is expected to remain steady, but may pick up in 2024....

Double 11 eCommerce update;Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours during last weekend, third-party Alibaba Cloud Customers were also...