Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

RLX Technology Inc / Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rlx-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31113:1" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Inc (RLX US)</a> has raised around US$1.4bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of closed-system e-vapor products in terms of retail sales value of 48% in 2019 and 62.6% over 9M20. </p>
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<p>In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, talk about the trading dynamics and provide a valuation table at different  share price levels.</p>
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<p>Links to our previous notes:</p>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-low-penetration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46797" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Low Penetration</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-limited-track-record-and-missing-international-ops" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46836" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Limited Track Record, and Missing International Ops</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-rlx-store-visits-to-relx-and-its-competitors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO (RLX): Store Visits to Relx and Its Competitors</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-ipo-valuation-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-months" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology IPO - Valuation Has More than Doubled in Two Months</a></li>
</ul>
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RLX Technology Inc (RLX US) has raised around US$1.4bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of closed-system e-vapor products in terms of retail sales value of 48% in 2019 and 62.6% over 9M20. 


In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, talk about the trading dynamics and provide a valuation table at different  share price levels.


Links to our previous notes:




RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Low Penetration 
RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Limited Track Record, and Missing International Ops
RLX Technology Pre-IPO (RLX): Store Visits to Relx and Its Competitors
RLX Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation
RLX Technology IPO - Valuation Has More than Doubled in Two Months



RLX Technology IPO Trading - We Won't Be Chasing

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Douyin, the Chinese version of the short-video sharing app TikTok, has launched a new mobile payment service called Douyin Pay to supplement the existing payment services (Alipay and WeChat Pay) within the Douyin app.</p><p>The move puts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>, the parent company of Douyin and TikTok, in direct competition with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>’s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>’s mobile payment solutions at a time where Chinese regulators are improving oversight and regulations to prevent the monopolistic behaviour of large tech companies in the financial service space.</p>

Douyin, the Chinese version of the short-video sharing app TikTok, has launched a new mobile payment service called Douyin Pay to supplement the existing payment services (Alipay and WeChat Pay) within the Douyin app.The move puts ByteDance (1460967D CH), the parent company of Douyin and TikTok, in direct competition with Ant Group (6688 HK)’s and Tencent Holdings (700 HK)’s mobile payment solutions at a time where Chinese regulators are improving oversight and regulations to prevent the monopolistic behaviour of large tech companies in the financial service space.

The Launch of Douyin Pay: A Double Blow for Alibaba

Event-Driven

<div><p>Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.</p></div><div><p>As of nine months ended Sep 2020, it had 305m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 86 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 769m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB204.1bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.</p></div><div><p>As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.</p></div><div><p>I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-hot-segment-fast-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-ample-doubts-remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-phip-updates-user-growth-has-been-slowing-down-post-covid" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-updated-forecasts-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Updated Forecasts and Valuation</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, I’ll talk about the early inclusion in the indices.</p></div>

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.As of nine months ended Sep 2020, it had 305m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 86 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 769m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB204.1bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: 
 Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Updated Forecasts and Valuation
In this note, I’ll talk about the early inclusion in the indices.

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Index Implications, MSCI, FTSE and HSI Indices

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.</p></div><div><p>As of nine months ended Sep 2020, it had 305m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 86 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 769m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB204.1bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.</p></div><div><p>As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.</p></div><div><p>I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-hot-segment-fast-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-ample-doubts-remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-phip-updates-user-growth-has-been-slowing-down-post-covid" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, I’ll cover the updated earnings and forecast post the PHIP filing.</p></div>

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.As of nine months ended Sep 2020, it had 305m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 86 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 769m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB204.1bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: 
 Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID
In this note, I’ll cover the updated earnings and forecast post the PHIP filing.

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Updated Forecasts and Valuation

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

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<p>Although slightly weaker than the exceptional growth reported in September and October, Chinese express parcel <em>volume</em> growth remained strong in December, up 37% YoY. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <em>pricing</em> remained weak in December, with some companies reporting YoY unit  declines of more than 25%. Such sharp declines can quickly erode profit margins and cash flow. </p>
<p>Our investment thesis for the sector remains intact: growing financial pressures within China's express sector will lead to necessary industry consolidation, probably in 2021. </p>




Although slightly weaker than the exceptional growth reported in September and October, Chinese express parcel volume growth remained strong in December, up 37% YoY. 
Unfortunately, pricing remained weak in December, with some companies reporting YoY unit  declines of more than 25%. Such sharp declines can quickly erode profit margins and cash flow. 
Our investment thesis for the sector remains intact: growing financial pressures within China's express sector will lead to necessary industry consolidation, probably in 2021. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volumes UP | Pricing DOWN | Time for Consolidation

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

RLX Technology IPO Trading - We Won't Be Chasing

RLX Technology Inc (RLX US) raised around US$1.4bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of...

Sumeet Singh

The Launch of Douyin Pay: A Double Blow for Alibaba

Douyin, the Chinese version of the short-video sharing app TikTok, has launched a new mobile payment service called Douyin Pay to supplement the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Index Implications, MSCI, FTSE and HSI Indices

Kuaishou Technology is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed...

Sumeet Singh

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Updated Forecasts and Valuation

Kuaishou Technology is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed...

Sumeet Singh

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volumes UP | Pricing DOWN | Time for Consolidation

Although express parcel volume growth remained strong in December, unit pricing was still weak, and we expect more companies to report losses in Q4...

Tracking Traffic

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