Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

D-MARKET Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi / Equity Bottom-Up

D-MARKET Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi

<p>The tech sector in Turkey is at an inflection point with its large, young, and tech-savvy population. We view that the market deserves a lot more attention from global investors, especially with its tech leaders planning to be listed in the international capital markets in the next 2 - 3 years. </p><p>In this note, we present one of the major e-commerce players in the country, Hepsiburada, which is in the process of developing its super-app ecosystem. The company was listed on NASDAQ in July and is the very first and only Turkish (tech) company listed in the US so far.</p><p>Although we view that it might still be a bit early to play the Turkish (tech) market, Hepsiburada is worth noting and following since it offers insights to keen investors about Turkey's evolving competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector and consumer habits.  </p>

The tech sector in Turkey is at an inflection point with its large, young, and tech-savvy population. We view that the market deserves a lot more attention from global investors, especially with its tech leaders planning to be listed in the international capital markets in the next 2 - 3 years. In this note, we present one of the major e-commerce players in the country, Hepsiburada, which is in the process of developing its super-app ecosystem. The company was listed on NASDAQ in July and is the very first and only Turkish (tech) company listed in the US so far.Although we view that it might still be a bit early to play the Turkish (tech) market, Hepsiburada is worth noting and following since it offers insights to keen investors about Turkey's evolving competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector and consumer habits.  

Hepsiburada: The Very First and Only US-Listed Turkish Tech Company

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>TDCX Inc, a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, is looking to raise up to US$338m in its upcoming US IPO.</p></div><div><p>TDCX provides outsourcing services to clients in new economy sectors and traditional blue-chip clients undergoing digital transformation. As of Jun 21, it served 43 global clients and with 114 active campaigns. The firm has offices located in 10 geographies across Asia, Europe and Latin America, namely, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Japan, Spain, India, Columbia and Romania.</p></div><div><p>TDCX has recorded very strong growth with revenue, EBITDA and PAT having increased by 2.5x over FY18-20. In addition, Facebook and Airbnb, combined, contributed 60.4% and 62.3% of TDCX’s total revenue for FY20 and 1H21. </p></div><div><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tdcx-inc-pre-ipo-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tdcx-inc-pre-ipo-past-growth-looks-good-the-rest-is-iffy-including-the-founders-s-325m-payout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO - Past Growth Looks Good, the Rest Is Iffy, Including the Founders S$325m Payout</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note we will talk about valuations</p></div>

TDCX Inc, a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, is looking to raise up to US$338m in its upcoming US IPO.TDCX provides outsourcing services to clients in new economy sectors and traditional blue-chip clients undergoing digital transformation. As of Jun 21, it served 43 global clients and with 114 active campaigns. The firm has offices located in 10 geographies across Asia, Europe and Latin America, namely, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Japan, Spain, India, Columbia and Romania.TDCX has recorded very strong growth with revenue, EBITDA and PAT having increased by 2.5x over FY18-20. In addition, Facebook and Airbnb, combined, contributed 60.4% and 62.3% of TDCX’s total revenue for FY20 and 1H21. We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet and TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO - Past Growth Looks Good, the Rest Is Iffy, Including the Founders S$325m Payout.In this note we will talk about valuations

TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO - Largest Client Is Growing Faster and Trading Cheaper

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> has had a disastrous year, ever since the IPO of their FinTech arm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a>, was pulled last minute in November 2020. Since then, they have faced continued regulatory hurdles, including an RMB18.2bn anti-monopoly fine, which has culminated in a 51% share price drop, since its November 2020 peak, which means that Alibaba is currently trading on only a 14.3x forward PE ratio. Given that this is nearly 4 standard deviations below its 5-year historical average trading range, and that this multiple would imply only a 0.72x PEG ratio, for a company with an extremely strong net cash balance sheet, delivering returns on capital well above its cost of capital, with positive free cash flow generation, and a $15bn share buyback program, indicates that there is a massive disconnect between long-term Buy-side expectations and near-term Sell-side estimates. </p><p>Looking at the reported group financials over this period it does not seem as though the regulatory impact has been that significant on core operations. The key concern, however, is that Alibaba is losing market share in its core businesses. </p><p>In this insight, I take a closer look at the broader Chinese retail market, as well as the Chinese digital advertising market (I estimate that Alibaba still generates more than 40% of its Chinese commerce revenue, and roughly 1/3<sup>rd</sup> of group revenue, from marketing activities), to analyse Alibaba’s relative revenue share loss. Finally, I also revisit current valuation levels and analyse what this implies for its Core Commerce operations.</p>

Alibaba Group (9988 HK) has had a disastrous year, ever since the IPO of their FinTech arm, Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK), was pulled last minute in November 2020. Since then, they have faced continued regulatory hurdles, including an RMB18.2bn anti-monopoly fine, which has culminated in a 51% share price drop, since its November 2020 peak, which means that Alibaba is currently trading on only a 14.3x forward PE ratio. Given that this is nearly 4 standard deviations below its 5-year historical average trading range, and that this multiple would imply only a 0.72x PEG ratio, for a company with an extremely strong net cash balance sheet, delivering returns on capital well above its cost of capital, with positive free cash flow generation, and a $15bn share buyback program, indicates that there is a massive disconnect between long-term Buy-side expectations and near-term Sell-side estimates. Looking at the reported group financials over this period it does not seem as though the regulatory impact has been that significant on core operations. The key concern, however, is that Alibaba is losing market share in its core businesses. In this insight, I take a closer look at the broader Chinese retail market, as well as the Chinese digital advertising market (I estimate that Alibaba still generates more than 40% of its Chinese commerce revenue, and roughly 1/3rd of group revenue, from marketing activities), to analyse Alibaba’s relative revenue share loss. Finally, I also revisit current valuation levels and analyse what this implies for its Core Commerce operations.

Alibaba: How Much Core Market Share Loss Has Been Priced In?

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Capital Markets

<p>FSN E-commerce (Nykaa) aims to raise around US$550m, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Indian IPO. Nykaa is a lifestyle focussed e-commerce platform and consumer brand offering a portfolio of beauty, personal care and fashion products, including its own branded products. As per RedSeer, it was the largest Specialty Beauty and Personal Care Platform in India in terms of value of products sold in FY21.</p><p>As of March 21, it had 43.7m cumulative downloads across all its mobile applications. Its offline channel comprises 73 physical stores across 38 cities in India. It reported a gross merchandise value (GMV) of INR40,459.8m (around US$550m) in FY21. As of Mar 21, it offered approximately 2.0m SKUs from 3,826 national and international brands across its business verticals. </p><p>Nykaa’s GMV, revenue and gross profit have more than doubled over FY19-21, even though the company suffered from a drop in orders due to COVID-19 in 4Q20 and 1Q21. Overall, GMV grew by 62.7% in FY20 and 50.7% in FY21. Revenue growth has broadly kept pace with GMV growth while the company has managed to turn a profit in FY21. </p><p>However, the growth for its largest segment, beauty and personal care, appears to have slowed down in FY21. While its fashion segment is operated as a marketplace and hence, won’t be a big driver of revenue growth till it scales.</p>

FSN E-commerce (Nykaa) aims to raise around US$550m, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Indian IPO. Nykaa is a lifestyle focussed e-commerce platform and consumer brand offering a portfolio of beauty, personal care and fashion products, including its own branded products. As per RedSeer, it was the largest Specialty Beauty and Personal Care Platform in India in terms of value of products sold in FY21.As of March 21, it had 43.7m cumulative downloads across all its mobile applications. Its offline channel comprises 73 physical stores across 38 cities in India. It reported a gross merchandise value (GMV) of INR40,459.8m (around US$550m) in FY21. As of Mar 21, it offered approximately 2.0m SKUs from 3,826 national and international brands across its business verticals. Nykaa’s GMV, revenue and gross profit have more than doubled over FY19-21, even though the company suffered from a drop in orders due to COVID-19 in 4Q20 and 1Q21. Overall, GMV grew by 62.7% in FY20 and 50.7% in FY21. Revenue growth has broadly kept pace with GMV growth while the company has managed to turn a profit in FY21. However, the growth for its largest segment, beauty and personal care, appears to have slowed down in FY21. While its fashion segment is operated as a marketplace and hence, won’t be a big driver of revenue growth till it scales.

FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa) Pre-IPO - Mixed Bag - Fashion Growing, Beauty Slowing

<p>ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p><p>As per iResearch, ANE’s network was the largest in China in terms of total freight volume over 2017-20 with a market share of 17.2% in 2020.</p><p>By Dec 2020, it had collaborated with approximately 26,400 freight partners and agents to serve 3.6m shippers across approximately 96% of the counties and townships in China. Both the freight partners and freight agents operate under its brand and are required to adhere to its service guidelines and policies. ANE’s overall volume and top line growth has been decent. However, not all of its offerings have been growing, while some of its revenue growth was driven by accounting changes. </p><p>We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-pre-ipo-margins-expanding-but-appears-to-be-falling-behind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind</a>. </p><p>In this note we will talk about the updated financials from the PHIP.</p>

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.As per iResearch, ANE’s network was the largest in China in terms of total freight volume over 2017-20 with a market share of 17.2% in 2020.By Dec 2020, it had collaborated with approximately 26,400 freight partners and agents to serve 3.6m shippers across approximately 96% of the counties and townships in China. Both the freight partners and freight agents operate under its brand and are required to adhere to its service guidelines and policies. ANE’s overall volume and top line growth has been decent. However, not all of its offerings have been growing, while some of its revenue growth was driven by accounting changes. We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind. In this note we will talk about the updated financials from the PHIP.

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Underlying Growth Is Far from Clear

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

Hepsiburada: The Very First and Only US-Listed Turkish Tech Company

Hepsiburada, the very first and only Turkish (tech) company listed in the US, is worth noting and following since Turkish tech is currently at an...

Alec Tseung

TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO - Largest Client Is Growing Faster and Trading Cheaper

TDCX Inc, a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, is looking to raise up to US$338m in its upcoming US IPO.

Sumeet Singh

FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa) Pre-IPO - Mixed Bag - Fashion Growing, Beauty Slowing

FSN E-commerce (Nykaa) aims to raise around US$550m, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Indian IPO.

Sumeet Singh

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Underlying Growth Is Far from Clear

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Hepsiburada: The Very First and Only US-Listed Turkish Tech Company

Hepsiburada, the very first and only Turkish (tech) company listed in the US, is worth noting and following since Turkish tech is currently at an...

Alec Tseung

TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO - Largest Client Is Growing Faster and Trading Cheaper

TDCX Inc, a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, is looking to raise up to US$338m in its upcoming US IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba: How Much Core Market Share Loss Has Been Priced In?

In this insight, I analyse Chinese retail sales and digital advertising market share changes and what is implied by Alibaba’s current valuation...

Wium Malan, CFA

FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa) Pre-IPO - Mixed Bag - Fashion Growing, Beauty Slowing

FSN E-commerce (Nykaa) aims to raise around US$550m, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Indian IPO.

Sumeet Singh

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Underlying Growth Is Far from Clear

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh