Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With life getting back to the usual ways following changes due to COVID-19, the Japanese cosmetics sector was expected to experience an uplift in earnings, mainly through inbound demand.</li>
<li>However, the extension of China’s common prosperity crackdowns to the live-streaming e-commerce business, could more than offset a possible recovery in inbound demand.</li>
<li>Thus, we fear that there is additional downside risk to Japanese cosmetics multiples in the short term.</li>
</ul>


With life getting back to the usual ways following changes due to COVID-19, the Japanese cosmetics sector was expected to experience an uplift in earnings, mainly through inbound demand.
However, the extension of China’s common prosperity crackdowns to the live-streaming e-commerce business, could more than offset a possible recovery in inbound demand.
Thus, we fear that there is additional downside risk to Japanese cosmetics multiples in the short term.


Crackdown on Live-Streaming E-Commerce Could Derail The Recovery of Japanese Cosmetics

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>JD.com break down wedge support will dominate trade in Q1 and is near tactical support for a tradable reaction rise. Tencent decline is on track from our 510 short zone.</li>
<li>The bearish wedge break does set up a C wave decline into a new lows and a macro long opportunity.</li>
<li>Tencent 510 short bet will pressure the 410 pivot support with increasing odds of a break toward our macro trough target.</li>
</ul>


JD.com break down wedge support will dominate trade in Q1 and is near tactical support for a tradable reaction rise. Tencent decline is on track from our 510 short zone.
The bearish wedge break does set up a C wave decline into a new lows and a macro long opportunity.
Tencent 510 short bet will pressure the 410 pivot support with increasing odds of a break toward our macro trough target.


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>
Special Dividend: On December 23, 2021, Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] announced that it is planning to distribute USD 16.3 bn in JD.com (JD.US) [JD] Class A shares; </li>
<li>
Not A Surprise:Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of JD shares is not a surprise; and</li>
<li>
Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.  </li>
</ul>



Special Dividend: On December 23, 2021, Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] announced that it is planning to distribute USD 16.3 bn in JD.com (JD.US) [JD] Class A shares; 

Not A Surprise:Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of JD shares is not a surprise; and

Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.  


Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

<ul>
<li>On 23 December 2021, Tencent announced that it will shed most of its stake in JD, which takes place through the in-specie dividend distribution of JD shares to Tencent's shareholders. </li>
<li>There is prevailing debate that Tencent's latest disposals are in anticipation of regulatory pressure for China's tech giants to bring down their walled gardens. We do not disagree. </li>
<li>However, in this Insight, we argue a case that new walled gardens are being erected and not torn down, at least with respect to Tencent's ecosystem. </li>
</ul>


On 23 December 2021, Tencent announced that it will shed most of its stake in JD, which takes place through the in-specie dividend distribution of JD shares to Tencent's shareholders. 
There is prevailing debate that Tencent's latest disposals are in anticipation of regulatory pressure for China's tech giants to bring down their walled gardens. We do not disagree. 
However, in this Insight, we argue a case that new walled gardens are being erected and not torn down, at least with respect to Tencent's ecosystem. 


Tencent (700 HK) - New Walled Gardens Are Being Erected, Not Torn Down?

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tencent announced today that its board of directors has resolved to declare a special dividend by way of a distribution of its Class A ordinary shares of JD.com. </li>
<li>There is increased speculation that there is more divestments to come that including Tencent’s stakes in Meituan, Kuaishou and Pinduoduo.</li>
<li>Tencent’s shares are up 4.3% from yesterday’s close following the announcement while JD.com is 7.1% down from its previous close.</li>
</ul>


Tencent announced today that its board of directors has resolved to declare a special dividend by way of a distribution of its Class A ordinary shares of JD.com. 
There is increased speculation that there is more divestments to come that including Tencent’s stakes in Meituan, Kuaishou and Pinduoduo.
Tencent’s shares are up 4.3% from yesterday’s close following the announcement while JD.com is 7.1% down from its previous close.


Tencent’s Special Dividend: Is It a Sign the Walled Gardens Are Coming Down?

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

Crackdown on Live-Streaming E-Commerce Could Derail The Recovery of Japanese Cosmetics

Valuation multiples of Japanese cosmetics makers more than doubled during the last 6-7 years alongside the growth driven by the China expansion and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JD.com and Tencent Short and Bull Levels

JD.com break down wedge support will dominate trade in Q1 and is near tactical support for a tradable reaction rise. Tencent decline is on track...

Thomas Schroeder

Tencent Holdings – Bottom Ticking

TENCENT: Tencent announced that it is planning to distribute USD 16.3 bn in JD shares. Given mainland China’s crackdown on Tencent, the disposal is...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent (700 HK) - New Walled Gardens Are Being Erected, Not Torn Down?

Tencent announced that it will shed most of its stake in JD. In this Insight, we argue a case that new walled gardens are being erected and not...

Jason Yap, CFA

Tencent’s Special Dividend: Is It a Sign the Walled Gardens Are Coming Down?

There is increased speculation that there is more divestments to come including Meituan, Kuaishou and Pinduoduo and we think the liberalisation of...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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