Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Alibaba Group Holding  / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Country Garden 2031 USD bond closed at 17.00. It is pricing a near-inevitable default.</li><li>Longfor Group-rated BBB- maturing in 2032, is trading at 54.25, yielding 12.6%.</li><li>The bonds are down 50% since their peak near 109 in February 2021. it is getting into a crisis of confidence mode.</li></ul>

Country Garden 2031 USD bond closed at 17.00. It is pricing a near-inevitable default.Longfor Group-rated BBB- maturing in 2032, is trading at 54.25, yielding 12.6%.The bonds are down 50% since their peak near 109 in February 2021. it is getting into a crisis of confidence mode.

Alibaba, JD.Com, Longfor Group, and Country Garden

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK Properties, Techtronic.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK Properties, Techtronic.


HK Short Interest Weekly: CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK Properties, Techtronic

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK)</a> aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>We had looked at the company’s past performance in  our previous notes. In this note, we’ll talk about its PHIP updates.</li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
We had looked at the company’s past performance in  our previous notes. In this note, we’ll talk about its PHIP updates.


Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Sales Growing Faster but so Have Marketing Spends

Lionheart Studio  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lionheart-studio-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36417:1" rel="noopener">Lionheart Studio (426630 KS)</a>, a game development studio based in South Korea,  aims to raise around US$420m via its South Korean IPO.</li>
<li>The company is majority owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS)</a>, which after having recently hiked its stake, owned 54.94% of the company prior to listing.  </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Lionheart Studio (426630 KS), a game development studio based in South Korea,  aims to raise around US$420m via its South Korean IPO.
The company is majority owned by Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS), which after having recently hiked its stake, owned 54.94% of the company prior to listing.  
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Lion Heart Studio Pre-IPO - The Positives - Got One Hit

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Dingdang Health Technology Gro / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dingdang has formed a system integrating front-end consultation, self-built pharmacies and back-end distribution. The “heavy asset model” leads to large liabilities, negative equity balance, cash flow pressure and poor profitability.</li>
<li>Dingdang lacks core competitiveness in introducing customer flow or rapidly expanding user base. Together with fierce competition, the gap between the Company and JD Health/Alibaba Health will become bigger.</li>
<li>It’s difficult to achieve high profits based on the business model when break-even is barely achieved. Dingdang has it hard to successfully run through its ecosystem.We’re bearish on the outlook.</li>
</ul>


Dingdang has formed a system integrating front-end consultation, self-built pharmacies and back-end distribution. The “heavy asset model” leads to large liabilities, negative equity balance, cash flow pressure and poor profitability.
Dingdang lacks core competitiveness in introducing customer flow or rapidly expanding user base. Together with fierce competition, the gap between the Company and JD Health/Alibaba Health will become bigger.
It’s difficult to achieve high profits based on the business model when break-even is barely achieved. Dingdang has it hard to successfully run through its ecosystem.We’re bearish on the outlook.


Dingdang Health Technology (9886HK)-Business Model Face Test; Hard to Run the Ecosystem Successfully

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

Alibaba, JD.Com, Longfor Group, and Country Garden

Country Garden 2031 USD bond closed at 17.00. It is pricing a near-inevitable default.Longfor Group-rated BBB- maturing in 2032, is trading at...

Untying The Gordian Knot

HK Short Interest Weekly: CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK Properties, Techtronic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position and highlight short interest changes in CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Sales Growing Faster but so Have Marketing Spends

Giant Biogene aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is one of the leaders in the bioactive ingredient-based professional...

Sumeet Singh

Lion Heart Studio Pre-IPO - The Positives - Got One Hit

Lionheart Studio, a game development studio based in South Korea, aims to raise around US$420m via its South Korean IPO. The company is majority...

Sumeet Singh

Dingdang Health Technology (9886HK)-Business Model Face Test; Hard to Run the Ecosystem Successfully

Dingdang's "heavy asset model" leads to large liabilities/negative equity balance/cash flow pressure/poor profitability. Dingdang is hard to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)