Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>In 4Q24, the Company expects revenue to be flat to up 2% QoQ and gross margin to range from 18% to 20%.</li>
<li>2025 will expect AI to grow 10%+, others segment grows about single digits.  </li>
<li>SMIC's capex increase ~60k/8" equivalent capacity this year, and plan to increase around 50k per year.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q24, the Company expects revenue to be flat to up 2% QoQ and gross margin to range from 18% to 20%.
2025 will expect AI to grow 10%+, others segment grows about single digits.  
SMIC's capex increase ~60k/8" equivalent capacity this year, and plan to increase around 50k per year.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 31 October.  The changes should be announced on 29 November and implemented on 13 December.</li>
<li>We forecast 12 adds and 6 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.5% and a one-way trade of CNY 642m (US$90m).</li>
<li>The forecast adds to the index have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months with a move higher in the short-term too.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 31 October.  The changes should be announced on 29 November and implemented on 13 December.
We forecast 12 adds and 6 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.5% and a one-way trade of CNY 642m (US$90m).
The forecast adds to the index have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months with a move higher in the short-term too.


CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes as Adds Outperform

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Tianshui Huatian Technology Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Samsung unlikely to follow Intel in spinning off its foundry business, focusing on their own semiconductor production.</li><li>Marvell co-founder Sehat Sutardja passes away, leaving a void in the semiconductor industry mourning the loss of a visionary.</li><li>HTC launches VIVE Focus Vision with advanced XR features for gamers and enterprises, aiming to capture a niche market.</li></ul>

Samsung unlikely to follow Intel in spinning off its foundry business, focusing on their own semiconductor production.Marvell co-founder Sehat Sutardja passes away, leaving a void in the semiconductor industry mourning the loss of a visionary.HTC launches VIVE Focus Vision with advanced XR features for gamers and enterprises, aiming to capture a niche market.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Sep-2024): Samsung unlikely to follow Intel's spinoff.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 9th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,018.4 million, led by information technology, consumer discretionary, financials, and offset by health care, consumer staples, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 9th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,018.4 million, led by information technology, consumer discretionary, financials, and offset by health care, consumer staples, utilities.
We highlight flows for Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight.


Northbound Flows (Aug 9th): Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 26th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,578.2 million, led by consumer staples, information technology, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, health care, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, Moutai, CATL, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye, Boe Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 26th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,578.2 million, led by consumer staples, information technology, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, health care, utilities.
We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, Moutai, CATL, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye, Boe Technology.


Northbound Flows (Jul 26th): Zijin Mining, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye, Boe Technology

China

JCET Group Co., Ltd. operates in the semiconductor industry.  The Company's products include discrete devices and integrated circuits.  Through its subsidiaries, Jiangsu Changjiang also manufactures signal lamps used in industrial equipment and anti-theft door systems for consumer use.

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JCET Group (600584 CH)

SMIC (981.HK): Keeping a Steady Growth

Company forecasts steady revenue growth and gross margin improvement, with a focus on AI and capacity expansion, likely to grow around 50k/ 8"...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Sep-2024): Samsung unlikely to follow Intel's spinoff.

Samsung not spinning off foundry business, rise in cobots in China, Marvell co-founder passes away, HTC launches VIVE Focus Vision, Suchi Semicon...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Northbound Flows (Aug 9th): Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jul 26th): Zijin Mining, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye, Boe Technology

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zijin Mining, Moutai, CATL, Zhongji Innolight,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SMIC (981.HK): Keeping a Steady Growth

​Company forecasts steady revenue growth and gross margin improvement, with a focus on AI and capacity expansion, likely to grow around 50k/ 8"...

Patrick Liao

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes as Adds Outperform

There could be 12 adds, 6 deletes in Dec. Impact is not very large, but 12 stocks will have flows from other index trackers too. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Sep-2024): Samsung unlikely to follow Intel's spinoff.

Samsung not spinning off foundry business, rise in cobots in China, Marvell co-founder passes away, HTC launches VIVE Focus Vision, Suchi Semicon...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Northbound Flows (Aug 9th): Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jul 26th): Zijin Mining, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye, Boe Technology

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zijin Mining, Moutai, CATL, Zhongji Innolight,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Company forecasts steady revenue growth and gross margin improvement, with a focus on AI and capacity expansion, likely to grow around 50k/ 8"...