Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan Post revised up NP guidance significantly with the post office business seeing a NP guidance boost of ¥60bn to ¥80bn.</li>
<li>The real star of the show though was Japan Post Bank where improving net interest income saw a significant boost to NP guidance and the dividend.</li>
<li>Japan Post Insurance did not revise up but is tracking to generate a YoY NP increase rather than the fall it has guided for.</li>
</ul>


Japan Post revised up NP guidance significantly with the post office business seeing a NP guidance boost of ¥60bn to ¥80bn.
The real star of the show though was Japan Post Bank where improving net interest income saw a significant boost to NP guidance and the dividend.
Japan Post Insurance did not revise up but is tracking to generate a YoY NP increase rather than the fall it has guided for.


Japan Post – Big Upward Revision Should Get Bigger

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR</a> and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through an extended secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 22.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>We have looked at the lockup expiry and deal dynamics in our earlier notes.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about share price performance since then.</li>
</ul>



KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through an extended secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 22.3% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP). 
We have looked at the lockup expiry and deal dynamics in our earlier notes.
In this note, we talk about share price performance since then.


Kokusai Electric Placement Updates - Misbehaving

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$3.3 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>’s shares are down 5% from the undisturbed price of JPY1,791 per share (4 July).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Honda’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 17 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$3.3 billion secondary placement announcement, Honda Motor (7267 JP)’s shares are down 5% from the undisturbed price of JPY1,791 per share (4 July).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Honda’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 17 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP).</a>
</li>
<li>The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.</li>
<li>In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP).

The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.
In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.


Honda Motor Placement - Past Large Deals Analysis - Could Do with a Bit More Correction

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ASICS Placement - Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

Japan

T&D Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Taiyo Life Insurance, Daido Life Insurance, and T&D Financial Life Insurance. The Company manages life insurance operations for its subsidiaries.

LIFENET INSURANCE COMPANY provides a wide range of life insurance products and services. The company mainly provides the products and services through the internet. The company also provides asset management services.

Anicom Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Anicom Insurance, Inc., Anicom Frontier, Inc., Anicom Pafe, Inc. The Company provides health insurance policies for pets and operates insurance agency through internet, personal visiting. Anicom Holdings also researches and provides pet business information.

Advance Create Co., Ltd operates insurance agency through newspaper advertising, internet, visiting, telemarketing.  The Company operates consulting and advertising services.

SBI Insurance Group Co., Ltd. operates as an insurance company. The Company offers life, non-life, short-term, and other insurance products. SBI Insurance Group provides its services in Japan.

Dream Incubator Inc. nurtures venture companies.  The Company supports companies by providing strategic insights and other consulting services.

IRRC Corporation offers insurance services. The Company provides insurance consulting, agency, sales supporting, store development, and other related services. IRRC operates in Japan.

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Bank of Yokohama and Higashi-Nippon Bank. The Company provides banking services and other financial services.

CHUOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP CO., LTD. provides Insurance services. The company mainly makes consignment contract with general insurance and life insurance companies and provides insurance agency business.

Medibank Private Limited offers private health care coverage for hospital and ancillary services. The Company offers a range of health insurance products such as health, travel, pet, and life coverage to overseas students and visitors. Medibank serves customers throughout Australia.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Globe Life Inc. operates as an insurance company. The Company offers term, whole, and children's life insurance, as well as accidental benefits, mortgage protection, and medicare supplement plans. Globe Life operates in the State of Texas.

Assurant, Inc. provides specialized insurance and insurance-related products. The Company offers individual and small employer group health insurance, group dental insurance, pre-funded funeral insurance, group disability and life insurance, creditor-placed homeowners insurance, manufactured housing homeowners insurance, debt protection administration, credit insurance, and warranties.

Primerica Inc. distributes financial products to middle income households in North America. The Company products include term life insurance, mutual funds, variable annuities and other financial products, which are distribute primarily on behalf of third parties.

Old Republic International Corporation is an insurance holding company whose subsidiaries market, underwrite, and provide risk management services.  The Company provides services for a variety of coverages in the property and liability, mortgage guaranty, title, and life and health insurance fields.

RLI Corp., through its subsidiaries, underwrites selected property, casualty, and surety insurance products.  The Company's principal subsidiary, RLI Insurance Group, provides specialty property and casualty coverages for primarily commercial risks.

Unipol Gruppo S.p.A sells life and property/casualty insurance and reinsurance in Italy.  The Company's non-life insurance coverage includes accident, health, automobile, railroad rolling stock, aircraft, marine, and fire.

UnipolSai SpA is an multi-line insurance company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers life, health, accident, automobile, marine, fire, general liability, and credit insurance.

Mapfre SA offers insurance services.  Through subsidiaries, the Company offers health, life, homeowner's, commercial, industrial risk, burial,  accident, automobile, and third-party liability insurance policies.  Mapfre operates in Europe and the Americas.

Japan Post Insurance Co. Ltd. operates life insurance business. The Company offers whole life insurance, education endowment, ordinary endowment, medical insurance, and special endowment insurance. Japan Post Insurance provides services for individuals and businesses throughout Japan.

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Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)

Japan Post – Big Upward Revision Should Get Bigger

Japan Post Holdings 2Q results should highlight to investors that guidance is absurdly conservative and improving net interest income at the bank...

Mio Kato

Kokusai Electric Placement Updates - Misbehaving

KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through selling a large stake in Kokusai. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Honda (7267 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 17 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Arun George

Honda Motor Placement - Past Large Deals Analysis - Could Do with a Bit More Correction

A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP). In this note, we talk about the updates since...

Sumeet Singh

ASICS Placement - Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

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