Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>H1 Results improved but did not raise guidance for the FY</li>
<li>Insurance subsidiary surprised with a buyback of shares after strong results</li>
<li>Bank subsidiary profits improved as expected as interest rates increase</li>
</ul>


H1 Results improved but did not raise guidance for the FY
Insurance subsidiary surprised with a buyback of shares after strong results
Bank subsidiary profits improved as expected as interest rates increase


Japan Post Holdings - Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TSE went through a multi-year period of planning a "<a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/market-restructure/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Market Restructuring</a>" which ended on 4 April 2022 as the TSE split into three Sections, TSE Prime, Standard, and Growth.</li>
<li>After that, the TSE formed a "Council of Experts" (<a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/follow-up_member_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some very senior people</a>) that would <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/follow-up_market_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow up</a> on the changes, and recommend new measures.  In January, new rule proposals dropped.</li>
<li>There was <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/dreu250000000uqc.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">talk</a> of a hard end to the transition period. Also, the Council harped on Awareness of Capital Cost and Efficiency. Most notably, for companies with PBR &lt; 1.</li>
</ul>


The TSE went through a multi-year period of planning a "Market Restructuring" which ended on 4 April 2022 as the TSE split into three Sections, TSE Prime, Standard, and Growth.
After that, the TSE formed a "Council of Experts" (some very senior people) that would follow up on the changes, and recommend new measures.  In January, new rule proposals dropped.
There was talk of a hard end to the transition period. Also, the Council harped on Awareness of Capital Cost and Efficiency. Most notably, for companies with PBR &lt; 1.


Japan's Governance Changes I - The PBR 1.0 Target

<ul>
<li>The company’s targets are underwhelming given the opportunity but low expectations built in</li>
<li>A revamped strategy to increase profitability and shareholder returns is “radical” for this old-school company</li>
<li>Execution is key for certain parts of the plan, but the market can do the rest</li>
</ul>


The company’s targets are underwhelming given the opportunity but low expectations built in
A revamped strategy to increase profitability and shareholder returns is “radical” for this old-school company
Execution is key for certain parts of the plan, but the market can do the rest


Return to Sender: Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Entering the Modern Age

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> buyback risk that might cause <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> has consistently traded through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a>'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. </li>
</ul>


There is Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) buyback risk that might cause Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.

L'Occitane (973 HK)'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> announced results (and Mar25 guidance) as did its subsidiaries <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>There are a number of interesting things in all the announcements/presentations but the most interesting one for JPH holders is a big buyback. Another one.</li>
<li>The company has announced a ¥350bn buyback. It is larger than last year's (¥300bn) buyback and has another important difference.</li>
</ul>


Today, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) announced results (and Mar25 guidance) as did its subsidiaries Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP). 
There are a number of interesting things in all the announcements/presentations but the most interesting one for JPH holders is a big buyback. Another one.
The company has announced a ¥350bn buyback. It is larger than last year's (¥300bn) buyback and has another important difference.


Japan Post Holdings (6178) - Bigger Better Bullish Buyback With Caveats

Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

Japan Post Holdings - Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

Company's H1 results show improvement, but no guidance raise for FY; Financial subsidiaries gain from interest rate increases but holding company...

Rikki Malik

Japan's Governance Changes I - The PBR 1.0 Target

Japan's powers that be - the TSE and now the Finance Ministry - are targeting listcos with PBRs of less than 1.0x. That will mean they will be...

Travis Lundy

Return to Sender: Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Entering the Modern Age

Company's underwhelming targets should be beaten. Its plans are being revamped with a "radical" strategy to increase profitability and shareholder...

Rikki Malik

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Post Holdings (6178) - Bigger Better Bullish Buyback With Caveats

JPH, JPB, and JPI announced earnings on 15 May. JPH also announced a larger buyback with more impact than last year. That should be good, but the...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Post Holdings - Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

​Company's H1 results show improvement, but no guidance raise for FY; Financial subsidiaries gain from interest rate increases but holding company...

Rikki Malik

Japan's Governance Changes I - The PBR 1.0 Target

Japan's powers that be - the TSE and now the Finance Ministry - are targeting listcos with PBRs of less than 1.0x. That will mean they will be...

Travis Lundy

Return to Sender: Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Entering the Modern Age

​Company's underwhelming targets should be beaten. Its plans are being revamped with a "radical" strategy to increase profitability and shareholder...

Rikki Malik

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Post Holdings (6178) - Bigger Better Bullish Buyback With Caveats

JPH, JPB, and JPI announced earnings on 15 May. JPH also announced a larger buyback with more impact than last year. That should be good, but the...

Travis Lundy

Company's H1 results show improvement, but no guidance raise for FY; Financial subsidiaries gain from interest rate increases but holding company...

Company's underwhelming targets should be beaten. Its plans are being revamped with a "radical" strategy to increase profitability and shareholder...