Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>At 9M16</td>
<td>Cash</td>
<td>Securities</td>
<td>Loans</td>
<td>NIM (%)</td>
<td>Profit</td>
<td>LLP/loans(%)</td>
<td>LLP/profit(%)</td>
<td>ROA (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nishi-Nippon</td>
<td>454,094</td>
<td>1,869,789</td>
<td>6,366,571</td>
<td>1.17</td>
<td>25,326</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>4.56</td>
<td>0.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yamagu</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.

At 9M16
Cash
Securities
Loans
NIM (%)
Profit
LLP/loans(%)
LLP/profit(%)
ROA (%)


Nishi-Nippon
454,094
1,869,789
6,366,571
1.17
25,326
0.04
4.56
0.39


Yamagu

…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that there are plenty of assets affected by lower interest rates, and now negative interest rates. Some banks in Japan have no ability to lower their deposit rates further, and these banks can be even more adversely affected. These are the regional banks. Late in January 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it will charge a rate of 0.10% on current…

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that there are plenty of assets affected by lower interest rates, and now negative interest rates. Some banks in Japan have no ability to lower their deposit rates further, and these banks can be even more adversely affected. These are the regional banks. Late in January 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it will charge a rate of 0.10% on current…

<ul><li>BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights</li><li>In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assets</li><li>The risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the most</li><li>Australia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convinced</li><li>Hang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears</li></ul>

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weightsIn all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assetsThe risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the mostAustralia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convincedHang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears 

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

<ul><li>Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.</li><li>Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…</li><li>So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up</li></ul>

 Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up 

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan's Banks Can Lose 30% of Income

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative...

Daniel Tabbush

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and...

Greg Gibbs

Japan's Nasty Margin Trend

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Regulatory Changes to Credit Risk

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets,...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks. Already elevated EM...

Kay Van-Petersen

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