Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks.  </li>
<li>The company's cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs. </li>
<li>Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA. </li>
</ul>



Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks.  
The company's cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs. 
Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA. 


Japan Post Bank - It's like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kansai Electric Power / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18907:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)</a> plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans.</li>
<li>In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.</li>
</ul>



Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans.
In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.
In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.


Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates - Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals

<ul>
<li>The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. </li>
<li>ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. </li>
<li>Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.</li>
</ul>


The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. 
ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. 
Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.


MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>H1 Results improved but did not raise guidance for the FY</li>
<li>Insurance subsidiary surprised with a buyback of shares after strong results</li>
<li>Bank subsidiary profits improved as expected as interest rates increase</li>
</ul>


H1 Results improved but did not raise guidance for the FY
Insurance subsidiary surprised with a buyback of shares after strong results
Bank subsidiary profits improved as expected as interest rates increase


Japan Post Holdings - Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation</li>
<li>This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD</li>
<li>The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates</li>
</ul>


New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation
This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD
The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates


Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan Post Bank - It's like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

Japan Post Bank is more than ever like a closed-end mutual fund, which is hardly seeing any line items drive profit upward other than stock sales,...

Daniel Tabbush

Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates - Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Holdings - Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

Company's H1 results show improvement, but no guidance raise for FY; Financial subsidiaries gain from interest rate increases but holding company...

Rikki Malik

Banking on the BoJ

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Post Bank - It's like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

Japan Post Bank is more than ever like a closed-end mutual fund, which is hardly seeing any line items drive profit upward other than stock sales,...

Daniel Tabbush

Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates - Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Holdings - Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

​Company's H1 results show improvement, but no guidance raise for FY; Financial subsidiaries gain from interest rate increases but holding company...

Rikki Malik

Banking on the BoJ

​New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

Company's H1 results show improvement, but no guidance raise for FY; Financial subsidiaries gain from interest rate increases but holding company...

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market