IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$3.3 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>’s shares are down 5% from the undisturbed price of JPY1,791 per share (4 July).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Honda’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 17 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$3.3 billion secondary placement announcement, Honda Motor (7267 JP)’s shares are down 5% from the undisturbed price of JPY1,791 per share (4 July).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Honda’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 17 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP).</a>
</li>
<li>The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.</li>
<li>In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP).

The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.
In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.


Honda Motor Placement - Past Large Deals Analysis - Could Do with a Bit More Correction

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ASICS Placement - Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> September rebalance ends in three weeks. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance used for the additions.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 3-57x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-8.4x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s index weight is currently higher than 10% and that will result in capping in September. Passives will need to sell 6x ADV in the stock.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index September rebalance ends in three weeks. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance used for the additions.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 3-57x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-8.4x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s index weight is currently higher than 10% and that will result in capping in September. Passives will need to sell 6x ADV in the stock.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

<ul>
<li>KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

Shinkin Central Bank is a central bank for shinkin banks nationwide, operating as a cooperative financial institution.  The Bank has developed businesses in a variety of fields that contribute the shinkin banking industry.  The Bank's services include enhancement of the credit standing, efficient use of shikin bank's surplus funds, and settlement of domestic exchange transaction.

Resona Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services, including banking, trust operations, and credit card services. Resona Holdings also offers consulting services related to personal loans, asset management, and asset succession.

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established jointly by Chuo Mitsui Trust Holdings and Sumitomo Trust and Banking. As a financial group, the Bank provides trust banking business, as well as securities brokerage, assets management, and related financial services.

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Bank of Yokohama and Higashi-Nippon Bank. The Company provides banking services and other financial services.

Fukuoka Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of the Bank of Fukuoka and Kumamoto Family Bank. As a financial group, the Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions. The Company also provides other financial services such as credit card, letter of credit, and leasing services.

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

Mebuki Financial Group Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Joyo Bank and Ashikaga Bank. As a financial group, the Company offers deposits, Loans, foreign exchange transactions, commercial and trust banking. Mebuki Financial Group also provides financial services such as letter of credit, credit cards and consulting.

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to retail and corporate customers.  Its products include retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury services.  The Company operates its branches in Hong Kong and China.

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Honda (7267 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 17 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Arun George

Honda Motor Placement - Past Large Deals Analysis - Could Do with a Bit More Correction

A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP). In this note, we talk about the updates since...

Sumeet Singh

ASICS Placement - Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

We forecast 3 changes for the NKY in September with sector balance determining the inclusions. Fast Retailing will be capped at 10%. Passives need...

Brian Freitas

Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

As per media reports, KKR is considering sell half its stake in Kokusai, with the company planning to buyback some shares as well. The company has...

Sumeet Singh

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