Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The word floating around late Friday as books closed was that foreigners had bid strongly. More than the entire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> offering size in fact.</li>
<li>The offering is an interesting problem, as discussed before. Different people are going to buy it for different reasons. </li>
<li>This insight looks at the breakdown of ratios and the resultant foreign ownership, along with post-offer supply/demand balance.</li>
</ul>


The word floating around late Friday as books closed was that foreigners had bid strongly. More than the entire Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) offering size in fact.
The offering is an interesting problem, as discussed before. Different people are going to buy it for different reasons. 
This insight looks at the breakdown of ratios and the resultant foreign ownership, along with post-offer supply/demand balance.


Japan Post Bank - Estimating Foreign Ownership and Deal Flowback

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>'s large offering of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>'s shares, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> aims to raise up to US$440 million. </li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)'s large offering of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)'s shares, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) aims to raise up to US$440 million. 
Event-Driven developments - ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Invocare Ltd (IVC AU), Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB), Olam Group (OLG SP), Halcyon Agri (HACL SP). 


Weekly Deals Digest (12 Mar) - Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, ASMPT, Oishi, InvoCare, Olam

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>IPO activity appears to be picking up across the region, with deal in Japan, Hong Kong, US and Indonesia being lined up.</li>
<li>Placements as well picked up pace, despite the ongoing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>'s mega deal set to suck liquidity out of the system for a while. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
IPO activity appears to be picking up across the region, with deal in Japan, Hong Kong, US and Indonesia being lined up.
Placements as well picked up pace, despite the ongoing Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)'s mega deal set to suck liquidity out of the system for a while. 


ECM Weekly (12th Mar 2023) - Meituan, Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, JFW, Ventia, Doosan, DXN, DPC

<ul>
<li>Tomorrow is BOJ Governor Kuroda's last Monetary Policy Meeting, capping a ten year run as one of the most dynamic central bankers in the world.</li>
<li>Tomorrow is also the day BEFORE the first day on which the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> mega offering could price and the last day of bookbuild indications.</li>
<li>I am not saying this is not coincidence, but it is worth thinking about the interplay.</li>
</ul>


Tomorrow is BOJ Governor Kuroda's last Monetary Policy Meeting, capping a ten year run as one of the most dynamic central bankers in the world.
Tomorrow is also the day BEFORE the first day on which the Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) mega offering could price and the last day of bookbuild indications.
I am not saying this is not coincidence, but it is worth thinking about the interplay.


The March BOJ Meeting, April Handover, the Japan Post Bank (7182) Offering, and Follow-On

<ul>
<li>Since the offer announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>/JPB’s shares have risen by 4.4%. On 1 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 59.5 million shares for JPY70 billion.</li>
<li>To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>/JPI’s 2019 offering and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/ JPH’s 2021 offering.</li>
<li>JPB’s shares should follow the trading pattern playbook of JPI’s 2019 and JPH’s 2021 offerings and start trading below the pre-offer last trading price during the subscription period.</li>
</ul>


Since the offer announcement, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB’s shares have risen by 4.4%. On 1 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 59.5 million shares for JPY70 billion.
To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to look at Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)/JPI’s 2019 offering and Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering.
JPB’s shares should follow the trading pattern playbook of JPI’s 2019 and JPH’s 2021 offerings and start trading below the pre-offer last trading price during the subscription period.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan Post Bank - Estimating Foreign Ownership and Deal Flowback

I expect the JPB deal will price after the close on Monday. Determinants as to success in aftermarket will be foreign active demand (incl...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Mar) - Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, ASMPT, Oishi, InvoCare, Olam

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (InvoCare, Pushpay, Tyro, ASMPT, Yashili, Ihara, Nippon Steel, Toyo, Halcyon, Olam,...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (12th Mar 2023) - Meituan, Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, JFW, Ventia, Doosan, DXN, DPC

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

The March BOJ Meeting, April Handover, the Japan Post Bank (7182) Offering, and Follow-On

The BOJ announces policy 10 Mar and 28 April. Between that, the JPB (7182) offering prices, wage negotiations complete, the Fed meets, the new...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

JPB’s shares should follow the trading pattern playbook of JPI’s 2019 and JPH’s 2021 offerings and start trading below the pre-offer last trading...

Arun George

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