Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)</li>
<li>Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)
Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.


More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Filo Mining (FIL CN) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals (TIE AU)</a> are adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo (FRES LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galiano-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32201:1" rel="noopener">Galiano Gold (GAU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaguar-mining-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25393:1" rel="noopener">Jaguar Mining (JAG CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novo-resources-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25859:1" rel="noopener">Novo Resources (NVO CN)</a> are deletes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 4.3% resulting in a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks.</li>
<li>Largest inflows are on Filo Mining (FIL CN) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a> while largest outflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals (TIE AU) are adds while Fresnillo (FRES LN), Galiano Gold (GAU US), Jaguar Mining (JAG CN) and Novo Resources (NVO CN) are deletes.
One way turnover is estimated at 4.3% resulting in a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks.
Largest inflows are on Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU) while largest outflows are on Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN) and Centerra Gold (CG CN). 


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes

On 12 March, MV Index Solutions announced the results of the quarterly review of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index.There are 9 inclusions and 1 exclusion for the index at the March review and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.The inclusions are Skeena Resources, Discovery Metals, Marathon Gold, Liberty Gold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maverix-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28296:1" rel="noopener">Maverix Metals Inc (MMX CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaguar-mining-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25393:1" rel="noopener">Jaguar Mining (JAG CN)</a>, Galiano Gold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17430:1" rel="noopener">Silver Mines (SVL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caledonia-mining-corp-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26708:1" rel="noopener">Caledonia Mining Corp PLC (CMCL US)</a>, while the sole exclusion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.The deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> is a result of its merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> that results in the new company not being 'Junior' any more.Given the relatively high assets tracking the index, there will be quite a few days of ADV to trade on the inclusions and exclusions, though in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> we expect a lot of the selling has already been priced in.

On 12 March, MV Index Solutions announced the results of the quarterly review of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index.There are 9 inclusions and 1 exclusion for the index at the March review and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.The inclusions are Skeena Resources, Discovery Metals, Marathon Gold, Liberty Gold, Maverix Metals Inc (MMX CN), Jaguar Mining (JAG CN), Galiano Gold, Silver Mines (SVL AU) and Caledonia Mining Corp PLC (CMCL US), while the sole exclusion is Northern Star Resources (NST AU).The deletion of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) is a result of its merger with Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) that results in the new company not being 'Junior' any more.Given the relatively high assets tracking the index, there will be quite a few days of ADV to trade on the inclusions and exclusions, though in the case of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) we expect a lot of the selling has already been priced in.

Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Northern Star Deletion Could Provide a Good Entry Point

New developments outlined in today’s report are of the bullish variety. The way we see it, the positives continue to heavily outweigh the negatives. With positive new developments and essentially nothing new to be worried about, our view remains bullish. Buy the dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Materials: CD-46 Retailers, Home Improvement, CD-30 Internet Retailers, CD-55 Lawn &amp; Garden, and MA-27 Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap.

New developments outlined in today’s report are of the bullish variety. The way we see it, the positives continue to heavily outweigh the negatives. With positive new developments and essentially nothing new to be worried about, our view remains bullish. Buy the dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Materials: CD-46 Retailers, Home Improvement, CD-30 Internet Retailers, CD-55 Lawn &amp; Garden, and MA-27 Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap.

Canada

Jaguar Mining Inc. acquires, explores, develops, and operates gold mineral properties in Brazil.  The Company owns operations in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Jaguar Mining (JAG CN)

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy $XLE $RSPG, Utilities $XLU, and Gold Miners $GDX $GDXJ $AEM $RGLD $EGO $SA $IAG; Rally Broadening Out; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes

There are 2 adds & 4 deletes resulting in one way turnover of 4.3% & a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks....

Brian Freitas

Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Northern Star Deletion Could Provide a Good Entry Point

There are 9 inclusions and 1 exclusion from the MVCI Global Junior Gold Miners Index. Northern Star's deletion was expected and the stock could...

Brian Freitas

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buy The Dips

New developments outlined in today’s report are of the bullish variety. The way we see it, the positives continue to heavily outweigh the...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)