Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX +1.5%. Reflex US Rally post recent sell-off. Energy, Industrials, Tech lead in the Beta rally; Cons Confidence BTE; Nike +12% rpt inspires; Micron -ve after hrs</li>
<li>JAPAN: Futs flat vs Cash. USDJPY supported at ¥132  (for now); BOJ related/JGB  rates aside dominate narrative;  INBOUND tourists return;  Decarb spend to accelerate; Debt rating D/G for Rakuten</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Yōkoso!  Japan. The November tourist numbers saw a doubling MoM to 934,500 visitors. However, the Chinese visitors are not here yet. It likely takes some time...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX +1.5%. Reflex US Rally post recent sell-off. Energy, Industrials, Tech lead in the Beta rally; Cons Confidence BTE; Nike +12% rpt inspires; Micron -ve after hrs
JAPAN: Futs flat vs Cash. USDJPY supported at ¥132  (for now); BOJ related/JGB  rates aside dominate narrative;  INBOUND tourists return;  Decarb spend to accelerate; Debt rating D/G for Rakuten
DAILY NUGGET: Yōkoso!  Japan. The November tourist numbers saw a doubling MoM to 934,500 visitors. However, the Chinese visitors are not here yet. It likely takes some time...


Good Morning Japan |Stocks (Finally) Catch a Break; Cyclicals Rebound; And..we Resume in 2023 !

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> was the target of activist Murakami-san in August 2022. They threatened a poison pill. Murakami-san sold, then bought to 19.5%. They negotiated. He won.</li>
<li>His result excluded others. The market did not take it well. Murakami-san rejected taking a 1% hit to original terms (vs reference NAV). JAFCO went back to the drawing board. </li>
<li>Then submitted to greenmail at a higher price. The first buyback was agreed at ¥2,500 vs ¥2,651 NAV. The new one? ¥2,730-2,840 vs ¥2,513 NAV. Inexplicable - Spectacularly Bad Governance.
</li>
</ul>



Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) was the target of activist Murakami-san in August 2022. They threatened a poison pill. Murakami-san sold, then bought to 19.5%. They negotiated. He won.
His result excluded others. The market did not take it well. Murakami-san rejected taking a 1% hit to original terms (vs reference NAV). JAFCO went back to the drawing board. 
Then submitted to greenmail at a higher price. The first buyback was agreed at ¥2,500 vs ¥2,651 NAV. The new one? ¥2,730-2,840 vs ¥2,513 NAV. Inexplicable - Spectacularly Bad Governance.



JAFCO (8595) Succumbs to Even Worse Greenmail - SPECTACULARLY BAD Governance

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, the usual year end rush in smaller deals appears to have resumed.</li>
<li>On placements front, this week was one for real estate with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)</a>, Macrotech, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seazen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14882:1" rel="noopener">Seazen (1030 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-prologis-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15683:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Prologis Reit (3283 JP)</a> undertaking deals.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, the usual year end rush in smaller deals appears to have resumed.
On placements front, this week was one for real estate with Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK), Macrotech, Seazen (1030 HK) and Nippon Prologis Reit (3283 JP) undertaking deals.


ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) - ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>In principle, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> still wants to be greenmailed to get Murakami-san out. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>i is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed.</li>
<li>If you think this is a "risk", then you want to be long when the discount is wide and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> is monetising assets in some way. </li>
</ul>


In principle, Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) still wants to be greenmailed to get Murakami-san out. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)i is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed.
If you think this is a "risk", then you want to be long when the discount is wide and Softbank Group (9984 JP) is monetising assets in some way. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: JAFCO, Jardine Cycle, Softbank, Star Health

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a>'s partial MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma: Xingda International (1899 HK)'s partial MBO.
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) , Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) and China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine

Japan

JAFCO Co., Ltd. forms venture capital groups to invest primarily in domestic and foreign private companies with high potential for future growth.  The Company also provides management services to the groups, makes loans and offers consultation services to the invested companies.

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Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Stocks (Finally) Catch a Break; Cyclicals Rebound; And..we Resume in 2023 !

JAPAN: Futs flat vs Cash. USDJPY supported at ¥132; INBOUND tourists return; Decarb spend to accelerate - we see this as the BIG THEME FOR 2023...

Mark Chadwick

JAFCO (8595) Succumbs to Even Worse Greenmail - SPECTACULARLY BAD Governance

JAFCO tried to pump up the price to get it to where Murakami-san would accept his greenmail exit. They couldn't. So rather than pay what he...

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) - ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: JAFCO, Jardine Cycle, Softbank, Star Health

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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