Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> announced the reference period VWAP for the Tender Offer Buyback was ¥2,362.4136 vs target ¥2,525. Murakami-san refused to play, so the Tender Offer is cancelled.</li>
<li>This is good news and bad news. The announcement wording doesn't make JAFCO look good, but they will continue discussions with City Index Eleventh. But there is potential.</li>
<li><em>I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection (Jonathan Swift, 1729)</em></li>
</ul>



Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) announced the reference period VWAP for the Tender Offer Buyback was ¥2,362.4136 vs target ¥2,525. Murakami-san refused to play, so the Tender Offer is cancelled.
This is good news and bad news. The announcement wording doesn't make JAFCO look good, but they will continue discussions with City Index Eleventh. But there is potential.
I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection (Jonathan Swift, 1729)


JAFCO (8595) Cancels Tender Offer - I Offer a Modest Proposal For Good Governance

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Late last month, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jafco-8595-yields-to-murakami-greenmail-big-asset-sale-big-buyback" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85082" rel="noopener">JAFCO (8595) Yields to Murakami Greenmail - Big Asset Sale, Big Buyback</a> and set the large buyback from Murakami-san to occur through a Tender Offer.</li>
<li>The TOB price would be set at a 1% discount to the average 30 Nov - 7 Dec VWAP if VWAP was between ¥2,525 and ¥2,828/share. That's not happening.</li>
<li>So now we read the fine print, look at waive-ability of conditions, and look at contingencies.</li>
</ul>


Late last month, JAFCO (8595) Yields to Murakami Greenmail - Big Asset Sale, Big Buyback and set the large buyback from Murakami-san to occur through a Tender Offer.
The TOB price would be set at a 1% discount to the average 30 Nov - 7 Dec VWAP if VWAP was between ¥2,525 and ¥2,828/share. That's not happening.
So now we read the fine print, look at waive-ability of conditions, and look at contingencies.


JAFCO (8595) Sells NRI Shares But VWAP Falling Short - Comes Down To Murakami-San

Equity Capital Markets

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 25 November <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. </li>
<li>The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. </li>
<li>Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.</li>
</ul>


On 25 November Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced that Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. 
The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. 
Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.


NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, the two Japanese IPO set the ball rolling for the year end rush, with a few more lined up in Hong Kong along with Sunshine.</li>
<li>There were a few largish selldowns in Japan and India and given Hong Kong's recent performace, it will see some deals soon as well.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, the two Japanese IPO set the ball rolling for the year end rush, with a few more lined up in Hong Kong along with Sunshine.
There were a few largish selldowns in Japan and India and given Hong Kong's recent performace, it will see some deals soon as well.


ECM Weekly (4th Dec 2022) - Skymark, Daiei, Sunshine, Lygend, Weilong, NRI, Zomato, Goto, Bobcat

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> are looking to raise around US$850m via selling 5.7% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>This is not the first sale by Nomura and marks a clean up for Jafco. Hence it might not come as a complete surprise.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) and Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) are looking to raise around US$850m via selling 5.7% of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP). 
This is not the first sale by Nomura and marks a clean up for Jafco. Hence it might not come as a complete surprise.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Nomura Research Placement - Somewhat Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well but Momentum Is Weak

Japan

JAFCO Co., Ltd. forms venture capital groups to invest primarily in domestic and foreign private companies with high potential for future growth.  The Company also provides management services to the groups, makes loans and offers consultation services to the invested companies.

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Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)

JAFCO (8595) Cancels Tender Offer - I Offer a Modest Proposal For Good Governance

JAFCO was greenmailed by Murakami-san. The other shareholders didn't buy the plan so VWAP fell short and Murakami isn't playing ball. Now they need...

Travis Lundy

JAFCO (8595) Sells NRI Shares But VWAP Falling Short - Comes Down To Murakami-San

JAFCO sold its NRI stake lowering pro-forma NAV/share by 5.3% vs 30Sep. The VWAP Ref. for the Buyback Tender Offer looks to be 6.5% lower. Murakami...

Travis Lundy

NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

NRi has underperformed Peers since its announcement. It's current PER multiple to the Peer Average matches the lowest 3-month average premium seen...

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (4th Dec 2022) - Skymark, Daiei, Sunshine, Lygend, Weilong, NRI, Zomato, Goto, Bobcat

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Nomura Research Placement - Somewhat Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well but Momentum Is Weak

Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) and Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) are looking to raise around US$850m via selling 5.7% of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP).

Sumeet Singh

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