Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we consider what it would take to pull our valuation up closer to US$13 bn</li>
<li>Such a valuation would require solid revenue growth (+17-18% Y/Y or better), plus sustained progress on raising China and 'Other' EBITDA margins, which are currently negative</li>
<li>Even with these optimistic assumptions, J&amp;T would trade at 20x EV/2025 Adj EBITDA &amp; at historical EV/Revenue multiples far above more profitable Chinese express names</li>
</ul>


In this insight we consider what it would take to pull our valuation up closer to US$13 bn
Such a valuation would require solid revenue growth (+17-18% Y/Y or better), plus sustained progress on raising China and 'Other' EBITDA margins, which are currently negative
Even with these optimistic assumptions, J&amp;T would trade at 20x EV/2025 Adj EBITDA &amp; at historical EV/Revenue multiples far above more profitable Chinese express names


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 6 | How We Could Potentially Get Closer To US$13 Bn Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36806:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">Nws Holdings (659 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>.       </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Kokusai Electric (6525 JP), EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS), Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS), Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments - Eoflow (294090 KS), Nws Holdings (659 HK), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU).       


Weekly Deals Digest (15 Oct) - Kokusai, EcoPro, Seoul Guarantee, J&T, Eoflow, NWS, Origin, Liontown

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>How did CaiNiao turn profitable? We answer with an analysis of the company's P&amp;L</li>
<li>We also analyze CaiNiao's Balance Sheet, Cash Flow statement, and Operating Stats</li>
<li>We conclude with a list of ten questions we would put to CaiNiao management</li>
</ul>


How did CaiNiao turn profitable? We answer with an analysis of the company's P&amp;L
We also analyze CaiNiao's Balance Sheet, Cash Flow statement, and Operating Stats
We conclude with a list of ten questions we would put to CaiNiao management


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 2 | Analyzing Financial Statements & Operating Statistics

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Reserach puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> managed to get strong support, even though we remain somewhat unconvinved. </li>
<li>In the placement space,  we looked at the upcoming lockups for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>, along with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a> placement.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Reserach puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) managed to get strong support, even though we remain somewhat unconvinved. 
In the placement space,  we looked at the upcoming lockups for Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) and Zomato (ZOMATO IN), along with the Ingenia Communities (INA AU) placement.


ECM Weekly (15th Oct 2023) - Kokusai, J&T, Ecopro, Thai Credit, Lalatech, Barito, Rakuten, Zomato

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express</a>, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Hong Kong

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 6 | How We Could Potentially Get Closer To US$13 Bn Valuation

In this insight we consider the assumptions for top-line growth and margin improvement that could conceivably get us (closer) to the company's...

Tracking Traffic

Weekly Deals Digest (15 Oct) - Kokusai, EcoPro, Seoul Guarantee, J&T, Eoflow, NWS, Origin, Liontown

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Eoflow, NWS, Liontown, Origin, Estia, Pact, Healius, Newcrest) and ECM (Kokusai, J&T,...

Arun George

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 2 | Analyzing Financial Statements & Operating Statistics

In this insight we scrutinize CaiNiao's financial statements, analyze the few operating statistics the company provided in its prospectus, and...

Tracking Traffic

ECM Weekly (15th Oct 2023) - Kokusai, J&T, Ecopro, Thai Credit, Lalatech, Barito, Rakuten, Zomato

Aequitas Reserach puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

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