Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> 's core cigarette portfolio is relatively inelastic to the current commodity inflation. With the reopening of offices and social events, volumes are likely to trend higher. </li>
<li>A renewed focus on FMCG is likely to aid volumes for the non-cigarette segment. </li>
<li>Valuations are in favor and we see limited scope for de-rating if not re-rating.</li>
</ul>



ITC Ltd (ITC IN) 's core cigarette portfolio is relatively inelastic to the current commodity inflation. With the reopening of offices and social events, volumes are likely to trend higher. 
A renewed focus on FMCG is likely to aid volumes for the non-cigarette segment. 
Valuations are in favor and we see limited scope for de-rating if not re-rating.


<ul>
<li>Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment </li>
<li>There is a sense of aggression in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> is well placed to grow volumes &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is expected to be a steady performer. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)'</a> s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>'s products are more prone to volatility. </li>
</ul>


Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment 
There is a sense of aggression in ITC Ltd (ITC IN), Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) is well placed to grow volumes &amp; Nestle India (NEST IN) is expected to be a steady performer. 

Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)' s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)'s products are more prone to volatility. 


India Channel Insight #35 | ITC, Britannia, Nestle India, Dabur, Marico

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<p>EBITDA and PAT in line; cigarette volumes resilient - ITC’s 4QFY22 EBITDA and PAT growth came in line with our estimates.</p><p>Sales beat led by Agri business and Paperboards - ITC’s revenue grew 16.8% YoY to INR155.3b (est. INR138.4b) in 4QFY22.</p><p>Valuation and view - ITC’s re-rating would depend on sustained earnings growth going back to the high-teens levels witnessed in the first half of the last decade (at 18% CAGR) which had slowed down to 6.6% CAGR over the latter half of the decade.</p><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

EBITDA and PAT in line; cigarette volumes resilient - ITC’s 4QFY22 EBITDA and PAT growth came in line with our estimates.Sales beat led by Agri business and Paperboards - ITC’s revenue grew 16.8% YoY to INR155.3b (est. INR138.4b) in 4QFY22.Valuation and view - ITC’s re-rating would depend on sustained earnings growth going back to the high-teens levels witnessed in the first half of the last decade (at 18% CAGR) which had slowed down to 6.6% CAGR over the latter half of the decade.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 headline performance: ITC’s 4QFY22 standalone topline (adjusted for excise duty) was up 16.8% YoY at Rs155bn vs our est. of 21.9% YoY growth to Rs162bn.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 segmental performance: Cigarette revenue grew by 10% YoY to Rs64.4bn (vs our est. of Rs65.3bn), up ~12% on a two-year CAGR basis.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>FY22 performance: Standalone Revenue, EBITDA and APAT grew by 23.9%, 22% and 15.5%, respectively.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

4QFY22 headline performance: ITC’s 4QFY22 standalone topline (adjusted for excise duty) was up 16.8% YoY at Rs155bn vs our est. of 21.9% YoY growth to Rs162bn.4QFY22 segmental performance: Cigarette revenue grew by 10% YoY to Rs64.4bn (vs our est. of Rs65.3bn), up ~12% on a two-year CAGR basis.FY22 performance: Standalone Revenue, EBITDA and APAT grew by 23.9%, 22% and 15.5%, respectively.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC Ltd - Robust Operating Performance- Dividend Yield Improves Further

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>ITC reported a healthy set of numbers in Q4FY22with Revenue of Rs 15,331Cr (our estimate – Rs16,205Cr), down 2.2%QoQ but up ~16.5% YoY, led by a strong 8% volume growth in Cigarettes (in line with our estimates).</li><li>Gross Margins at 52.5% was 132bps lower YoY on account of unprecedented RM inflation</li><li>Benign taxation, inexpensive valuations (20x FY24E EPS), 5% dividend yield makes us BUYers of the stock. Our TP is revised to Rs 295 (earlier Rs 280).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ITC reported a healthy set of numbers in Q4FY22with Revenue of Rs 15,331Cr (our estimate – Rs16,205Cr), down 2.2%QoQ but up ~16.5% YoY, led by a strong 8% volume growth in Cigarettes (in line with our estimates).Gross Margins at 52.5% was 132bps lower YoY on account of unprecedented RM inflationBenign taxation, inexpensive valuations (20x FY24E EPS), 5% dividend yield makes us BUYers of the stock. Our TP is revised to Rs 295 (earlier Rs 280).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

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ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

ITC Ltd (ITC IN) | A Good Place to Hide

ITC's inelastic core cigarette portfolio, a renewed focus on FMCG, and limited scope for de-rating make it an interesting place to hide in the...

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This channel insight shares key takeaways from speaking to channels across north India that are associated with ITC, Britannia, Nestle India,...

Pranav Bhavsar

4QFY22 Results Update - ITC

EBITDA and PAT in line; cigarette volumes resilient - ITC’s 4QFY22 EBITDA and PAT growth came in line with our estimates.

Motilal Oswal

ITC Ltd - Robust Operating Performance- Dividend Yield Improves Further

ITC Ltd. (ITC) delivered a robust performance in 4QFY22, but it was lower than our expectation by 5% (ahead of consensus at EBITDA level).

Nirmal Bang

ITC: Healthy OverallPerformance

Benign taxation, inexpensive valuations (20x FY24E EPS), 5% dividend yield makes us BUYers of the stock Our TP is revised toRs 295 (earlier Rs...

Axis Direct

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