Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Smartkarma

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Equity Bottom-Up

<p>As a continuation of our Long Term Leaders vertical, we look at ITC whose share price has been under renewed pressure since the excise duty on cigarettes was hiked once again in the 2015-16 Indian budget. We continue to remain positive on the long term prospects of the stock given:</p><ul><li>Some states have already started to reverse their earlier steep tax hikes, this might point to the central government taking it slow from now on vs. market fears of continued hikes over the next few years. Were this to happen it would augur well for volume growth going forward</li><li>ITC's FMCG segement has grown from 5% of cigarette revenues in FY04 to over 52% by 9MFY15, and is set to break-even over the next few years and thus, start to contribute to bottom line growth</li><li>Management has set aggressive targets for growth of its FMCG segments and even if we use our relatively conservative numbers, the stock is likely to deliver at least 13% EBIT growth and even higher PATMI growth (owing to cut in corporate tax rates) over the next ten years.</li><li>The longer term outlook for all segments remains positive (yes, even cigarettes)</li><li>With the stock having under performed the broader market and its peers over the past year, valuations now appear favourable for anyone willing to take a long term view </li></ul>

As a continuation of our Long Term Leaders vertical, we look at ITC whose share price has been under renewed pressure since the excise duty on cigarettes was hiked once again in the 2015-16 Indian budget. We continue to remain positive on the long term prospects of the stock given:Some states have already started to reverse their earlier steep tax hikes, this might point to the central government taking it slow from now on vs. market fears of continued hikes over the next few years. Were this to happen it would augur well for volume growth going forwardITC's FMCG segement has grown from 5% of cigarette revenues in FY04 to over 52% by 9MFY15, and is set to break-even over the next few years and thus, start to contribute to bottom line growthManagement has set aggressive targets for growth of its FMCG segments and even if we use our relatively conservative numbers, the stock is likely to deliver at least 13% EBIT growth and even higher PATMI growth (owing to cut in corporate tax rates) over the next ten years.The longer term outlook for all segments remains positive (yes, even cigarettes)With the stock having under performed the broader market and its peers over the past year, valuations now appear favourable for anyone willing to take a long term view 

ITC (ITC IN) - This falling knife deserves to be caught

India

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

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ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

ITC (ITC IN) - This falling knife deserves to be caught

As a continuation of our Long Term Leaders vertical, we look at ITC whose share price has been under renewed pressure since the excise duty on...

Sumeet Singh

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