Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK services PMI gave back all its gains in May as it fell to 53.8, which is near the February low. This fall corroborates the correction in the European Commission survey. My recently nudged up Q2 GDP growth forecast of 0.4% q-o-q now looks bullish.</li>
<li>Other PMIs were strong, but services’ dominance means it is implying UK growth at levels typically inconsistent with any policy change. I still expect the first hike in Aug-19, with risks earlier and a fair value above current market yields.</li>
</ul>…


The UK services PMI gave back all its gains in May as it fell to 53.8, which is near the February low. This fall corroborates the correction in the European Commission survey. My recently nudged up Q2 GDP growth forecast of 0.4% q-o-q now looks bullish.
Other PMIs were strong, but services’ dominance means it is implying UK growth at levels typically inconsistent with any policy change. I still expect the first hike in Aug-19, with risks earlier and a fair value above current market yields.
…

FLASH: UK Services Subdued Back to Q1 Lows

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

-Buy the Euro and sell Sterling in the run-up to the two big elections on either side of the Channel. Macron is set to do a Schroeder for France, reinvigorating the EU, while May's muddled message will get muddier after she hobbles back to Downing Street. In the longer-term, the loss of British enterprise and innovation will be a net loss for Europe, as the ENA alums will eventually make the EU even more bureaucratic and centralised. For a nation that has been in decline for 254 years (since it…

-Buy the Euro and sell Sterling in the run-up to the two big elections on either side of the Channel. Macron is set to do a Schroeder for France, reinvigorating the EU, while May's muddled message will get muddier after she hobbles back to Downing Street. In the longer-term, the loss of British enterprise and innovation will be a net loss for Europe, as the ENA alums will eventually make the EU even more bureaucratic and centralised. For a nation that has been in decline for 254 years (since it…

France Beating Britain in the Long Game: +ve for the EU in the Near-Term, Less so in the Long Haul

• The UK’s manufacturing PMI remained near its highest in 3yrs, at 56.7, consistent with the ongoing global sector’s strength. This rise should support a rebound in IP. • Energy had also weighed on IP in Q1. Neither April nor May saw a rebound in electricity flows on the national grid, with oil and gas extraction falling in April. This weakness should restrain the Q2 recovery in IP.The UK manufacturing PMI had made a sharp recovery in April, after three months of slowing. As this was just…

• The UK’s manufacturing PMI remained near its highest in 3yrs, at 56.7, consistent with the ongoing global sector’s strength. This rise should support a rebound in IP. • Energy had also weighed on IP in Q1. Neither April nor May saw a rebound in electricity flows on the national grid, with oil and gas extraction falling in April. This weakness should restrain the Q2 recovery in IP.The UK manufacturing PMI had made a sharp recovery in April, after three months of slowing. As this was just…

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Two weeks ago, we noted that Labour was making strong in-roads into the Tory lead and if they managed to continue to do that, the election result could start looking very different. That has continued to the point, where it is not unreasonable to ask whether Labour can actually end up forming the next government. Whilst it is extremely unlikely that they can have an overall majority, a left-wing "rainbow" coalition is quite plausible. This report looks at how close Labour is to "winning".

Two weeks ago, we noted that Labour was making strong in-roads into the Tory lead and if they managed to continue to do that, the election result could start looking very different. That has continued to the point, where it is not unreasonable to ask whether Labour can actually end up forming the next government. Whilst it is extremely unlikely that they can have an overall majority, a left-wing "rainbow" coalition is quite plausible. This report looks at how close Labour is to "winning".

- The ONS’s second estimate of Q1 UK GDP growth was revised down to 0.2% q-o-q amid weaker services sector output. The profile of activity through the quarter is slightly better but still yields no supportive statistical carry-over. An acceleration nonetheless seems likely in Q2, as does a temporary rebound in volatile net trade.The ONS’s second estimate of UK GDP unexpectedly revised down the pace of expansion in Q1 to 0.2% q-o-q. IP was already known to have been slightly weaker than what was…

- The ONS’s second estimate of Q1 UK GDP growth was revised down to 0.2% q-o-q amid weaker services sector output. The profile of activity through the quarter is slightly better but still yields no supportive statistical carry-over. An acceleration nonetheless seems likely in Q2, as does a temporary rebound in volatile net trade.The ONS’s second estimate of UK GDP unexpectedly revised down the pace of expansion in Q1 to 0.2% q-o-q. IP was already known to have been slightly weaker than what was…

FLASH: Q1 UK GDP Growth Trimmed and Reprofiled

United States

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the British market, as measured by the MSCI United Kingdom Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ET (EWU US)

FLASH: UK Services Subdued Back to Q1 Lows

The UK services PMI gave back all its gains in May as it fell to 53.8, which is near the February low. This fall corroborates the correction in...

Phil Rush

France Beating Britain in the Long Game: +ve for the EU in the Near-Term, Less so in the Long Haul

-Buy the Euro and sell Sterling in the run-up to the two big elections on either side of the Channel. Macron is set to do a Schroeder for France,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

FLASH: UK PMI Supports IP, Unlike Energy

• The UK’s manufacturing PMI remained near its highest in 3yrs, at 56.7, consistent with the ongoing global sector’s strength. This rise should...

Phil Rush

UK Election - Can Labour Win It?

Two weeks ago, we noted that Labour was making strong in-roads into the Tory lead and if they managed to continue to do that, the election result...

Pelham Smithers Associates

FLASH: Q1 UK GDP Growth Trimmed and Reprofiled

- The ONS’s second estimate of Q1 UK GDP growth was revised down to 0.2% q-o-q amid weaker services sector output. The profile of activity through...

Phil Rush