Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We would only allocate directly to the Taiwan ETF if three conditions are met - we believe that two of those three conditions are 'late-cycle' and the third has been in the deep freeze since mid-2016.</li><li>The three factors are : the outlook for TSMC; the outlook for tech supply chains and materials; and finally the outlook for cross-straits relations.</li><li>We do believe that Taiwan will continue to be a fruitful hunting ground for stock pickers and a number of trends are building which would benefit specific Taiwanese companies.</li><li>The domestic reform agenda is one of the pillars supporting stock picking along with some specific tech themes.</li><li>Cross-straits issues are not that pressing in our opinion - stasis rather than crisis.</li></ul>

We would only allocate directly to the Taiwan ETF if three conditions are met - we believe that two of those three conditions are 'late-cycle' and the third has been in the deep freeze since mid-2016.The three factors are : the outlook for TSMC; the outlook for tech supply chains and materials; and finally the outlook for cross-straits relations.We do believe that Taiwan will continue to be a fruitful hunting ground for stock pickers and a number of trends are building which would benefit specific Taiwanese companies.The domestic reform agenda is one of the pillars supporting stock picking along with some specific tech themes.Cross-straits issues are not that pressing in our opinion - stasis rather than crisis.

Asia Pacific X Japan Portfolio Builder #5 - Taiwan AA - Avoid the ETF.  Underweight

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

Are Taiwan's headline index and US listed ETF breaking through a long-term resistance level? As seen in the charts below, both the Taiex and Taiwan ETF seem to have been breaking through a long term - 16 year - horizontal resistance line. Taiwan's a big part of the Asian and Emerging Market ETFs/indexes so there could be additional re-weighting/tactical/index implications for this (my data set only goes back 16-years).Take it all with a large dose of salt. I'm much more of a fundamental…

Are Taiwan's headline index and US listed ETF breaking through a long-term resistance level? As seen in the charts below, both the Taiex and Taiwan ETF seem to have been breaking through a long term - 16 year - horizontal resistance line. Taiwan's a big part of the Asian and Emerging Market ETFs/indexes so there could be additional re-weighting/tactical/index implications for this (my data set only goes back 16-years).Take it all with a large dose of salt. I'm much more of a fundamental…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<li>
Low domestic demand despite economic rebound: Retail trade dipped 8.4% y/y in Feb 17, down from a 3.9% in Jan 17. The slowdown was relatively broad-based with ICT equipment and general merchandising falling 19.4% and 15.3% respectively. Wholesale trade increased 14.3% y/y in Feb 17, up from a decline of 0.8% in Jan 17. This was driven by increases in purchase of fuel products by 13.1%, machinery equipment by 26.9% and auto sales by 18.7%.</li>
<li>
Steady manufacturing conditions: Industrial production…</li>
</ul>



Low domestic demand despite economic rebound: Retail trade dipped 8.4% y/y in Feb 17, down from a 3.9% in Jan 17. The slowdown was relatively broad-based with ICT equipment and general merchandising falling 19.4% and 15.3% respectively. Wholesale trade increased 14.3% y/y in Feb 17, up from a decline of 0.8% in Jan 17. This was driven by increases in purchase of fuel products by 13.1%, machinery equipment by 26.9% and auto sales by 18.7%.

Steady manufacturing conditions: Industrial production…


Taiwan: Exports Spearheading Economic Recovery

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

The South Korean President Park Geun-Hye was officially impeached today, with the South Korean Supreme Court upholding the impeachment decision. Most likely, the next South Korean Presidential election is likely to take place on May 9th. At this point, Moon Jae-In is the odds on favorite to become the next South Korean President, barring any major last minute catastrophes.Since late last year, the market has been pricing in both the official impeachment of President Park as well as who may…

The South Korean President Park Geun-Hye was officially impeached today, with the South Korean Supreme Court upholding the impeachment decision. Most likely, the next South Korean Presidential election is likely to take place on May 9th. At this point, Moon Jae-In is the odds on favorite to become the next South Korean President, barring any major last minute catastrophes.Since late last year, the market has been pricing in both the official impeachment of President Park as well as who may…

United States

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Taiwanese market, as measured by the MSCI Taiwan 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT US)

Asia Pacific X Japan Portfolio Builder #5 - Taiwan AA - Avoid the ETF. Underweight

We would only allocate directly to the Taiwan ETF if three conditions are met - we believe that two of those three conditions are 'late-cycle' and...

Mark Artherton

Taiex and EWT: Breakout in Taiwan?

Are Taiwan's headline index and US listed ETF breaking through a long-term resistance level? As seen in the charts below, both the Taiex and Taiwan...

Michael McGaughy

Trump Is a Dead-Weight on the USD

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely...

Greg Gibbs

Taiwan: Exports Spearheading Economic Recovery

Low domestic demand despite economic rebound: Retail trade dipped 8.4% y/y in Feb 17, down from a 3.9% in Jan 17. The slowdown was relatively...

Jason Tan

President Park Is Officially Impeached

The South Korean President Park Geun-Hye was officially impeached today, with the South Korean Supreme Court upholding the impeachment decision....

Douglas Kim