Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Despite core inflation being below its (headline) inflation target of 4% since Dec'23, the RBI has rigidly failed to cut its policy rate, thus constraining RGDP (&amp; EPS) growth. </li>
<li>Vegetable inflation (6% of CPI) has indeed surged, but monetary policy can do little to influence that. Vegetable and cereal inflation are likely to moderate sharply now, after strong harvest. </li>
<li>We thus expect 75bp of rate cuts in Feb-Jun'25. Near-term RGDP growth will disappoint (7.5% in H2FY25, driven by rebounding government spending), but a rate-driven recovery will occur in H1FY26. </li>
</ul>


Despite core inflation being below its (headline) inflation target of 4% since Dec'23, the RBI has rigidly failed to cut its policy rate, thus constraining RGDP (&amp; EPS) growth. 
Vegetable inflation (6% of CPI) has indeed surged, but monetary policy can do little to influence that. Vegetable and cereal inflation are likely to moderate sharply now, after strong harvest. 
We thus expect 75bp of rate cuts in Feb-Jun'25. Near-term RGDP growth will disappoint (7.5% in H2FY25, driven by rebounding government spending), but a rate-driven recovery will occur in H1FY26. 


India: RBI Extends Rate Policy Error Despite Slow Growth and Prospect of Low Inflation

<ul>
<li>For H1FY25, the fiscal deficit was only 29.4% of the FY25 target, with strong income-tax, GST and customs revenue. The 12mma of the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.6% of GDP.  </li>
<li>Corporate tax revenue grew just 2.3%YoY in H1FY25, reflecting slower profits growth. Stronger government spending likely in H2FY25, but fiscal deficit will still be well below 4.9% of GDP. </li>
<li>CAD likely to be 1.3% of GDP in H1FY25. Lower oil prices, stronger G&amp;S exports should allow a small CA surplus in H2FY25, shrinking FY25 CAD to 0.2% of GDP.</li>
</ul>


For H1FY25, the fiscal deficit was only 29.4% of the FY25 target, with strong income-tax, GST and customs revenue. The 12mma of the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.6% of GDP.  
Corporate tax revenue grew just 2.3%YoY in H1FY25, reflecting slower profits growth. Stronger government spending likely in H2FY25, but fiscal deficit will still be well below 4.9% of GDP. 
CAD likely to be 1.3% of GDP in H1FY25. Lower oil prices, stronger G&amp;S exports should allow a small CA surplus in H2FY25, shrinking FY25 CAD to 0.2% of GDP.


India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Re-Introducing our weekly Namaste India 2.0. This iteration builds on our earlier version and is designed for investors keen to track developments in India.</li>
<li>Nuclear power currently contributes less than 2% of India's total electricity generation, indicating significant room for growth.</li>
<li>Going ahead, with earnings taking center stage, the high valuations commanded by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)</a> are likely to get challenged.  </li>
</ul>


Re-Introducing our weekly Namaste India 2.0. This iteration builds on our earlier version and is designed for investors keen to track developments in India.
Nuclear power currently contributes less than 2% of India's total electricity generation, indicating significant room for growth.
Going ahead, with earnings taking center stage, the high valuations commanded by iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US) are likely to get challenged.  


Namaste India 🙏 | India’s Atomic Ambitions

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.</li>
<li>Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. </li>
<li>We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.
Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. 
We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 


India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI rose 1.33%MoM in Jun'24, because of a 3.17%MoM spike in food CPI. Consequently, headline CPI rose 5.08%YoY, driven by food inflation of 9.36%YoY.</li>
<li>Although core inflation was at 3.1%YoY in May-Jun'24, India targets headline inflation, not core. Vegetable inflation (+29.3%YoY) remained the main culprit pushing up headline inflation. Fiscal solutions will take time.  </li>
<li>Headline CPI inflation is likely to stay close to 5%YoY in Jul-Sep'24 (vs earlier expectations of it abating below 4%YoY). The first rate cut is therefore unlikely before Dec'24. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI rose 1.33%MoM in Jun'24, because of a 3.17%MoM spike in food CPI. Consequently, headline CPI rose 5.08%YoY, driven by food inflation of 9.36%YoY.
Although core inflation was at 3.1%YoY in May-Jun'24, India targets headline inflation, not core. Vegetable inflation (+29.3%YoY) remained the main culprit pushing up headline inflation. Fiscal solutions will take time.  
Headline CPI inflation is likely to stay close to 5%YoY in Jul-Sep'24 (vs earlier expectations of it abating below 4%YoY). The first rate cut is therefore unlikely before Dec'24. 


India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

India: RBI Extends Rate Policy Error Despite Slow Growth and Prospect of Low Inflation

RBI policy error constrains growth prospects in FY25, but food inflation is likely to moderate sharply with the strong harvest, allowing 75bp of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Namaste India 🙏 | India’s Atomic Ambitions

Weekly Namaste India 2.0 for investors tracking India; nuclear power at 2% of electricity generation, room for growth; high valuations of iShares...

Pranav Bhavsar

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Extends Rate Policy Error Despite Slow Growth and Prospect of Low Inflation

RBI policy error constrains growth prospects in FY25, but food inflation is likely to moderate sharply with the strong harvest, allowing 75bp of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

​Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Namaste India 🙏 | India’s Atomic Ambitions

​Weekly Namaste India 2.0 for investors tracking India; nuclear power at 2% of electricity generation, room for growth; high valuations of iShares...

Pranav Bhavsar

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

​With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

​Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

Weekly Namaste India 2.0 for investors tracking India; nuclear power at 2% of electricity generation, room for growth; high valuations of iShares...

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...